GDP could weigh 8% in the second quarter

A forecast for Thursday will be released quarterly data according to statistics bureau data release schedule, this Thursday will be released in the two quarter GDP growth and CPI and other important data. The National People's Congress Financial Committee will also convene a semi-annual economic situation analysis meeting, experts generally believe that the two-quarter GDP growth rate will rise significantly, about 8%.　　In addition, from some published June data, PMI, generating capacity for the first time positive, import and export decline significantly narrowed, rapid investment growth, sustained consumption, industrial production continued to better, rapid growth of money and credit, and so on, are confirmed the economic recovery pattern gradually established. B happy to see the two-quarter data continues to rebound in the second half will continue to improve as the economic situation improves, the industry is generally expected to see a significant rebound in GDP growth in the two quarter, about 8%.　　Given the first quarter GDP growth of 6.1%, the average GDP growth rate of the first half can reach 7%. Thanks to strong domestic consumption and investment demand, industry insiders believe the two-quarter growth rate will continue to rebound on a quarterly basis.　　There will be a welcome shift in all important economic data.　　QILU Securities macro-economic analysts said that the value of industrial growth has narrowed since this year, the June will be a positive, because industry accounted for about half of GDP data, can be said to be the indicator of GDP, which means that GDP for the year to protect the "eight" goal is expected to be achieved. Although import and export data were still hovering in the lower levels in June, the drop has narrowed markedly.　　Analysts believe that this and the country 8 times to improve export tax rebate rate, and foreign markets are also a structural recovery of China's textile products such as the rigid demand for exports began to resume.　　Qilu Securities analysts believe that the second half of the import and export data is not likely to be positive, but the decline will continue to narrow, is expected from the beginning of the year-more than 20% to 10% below, "throughout the year, should be around 10%". In addition, from the first half of the data, the extent of import decline narrowed far more than exports, indicating that China's domestic demand recovery is significantly better than outside demand.　　But from the whole year, exports may be better than the first half of the second half, the decline will gradually narrowed.　　The analyst also predicted that the June CPI could be -1.5,ppi-7.7, still a downward trend compared to the previous months, and expected to end in 7 August, "expected to be positive at the end of the year".　　C looking forward to the monetary policy in the second half of the year may be fine-tuning the economic data in the warming, again confirmed that the current economy has shown a stable recovery situation, and the trend of inflation has become increasingly obvious, credit increase to create a day, there are voices worried that the current macro-policy will turn. Some experts believe that the current fiscal policy and monetary policy shift is unlikely, but structural adjustment policies should be adopted to guard against inflation expectations and soaring asset prices, in a situation where recovery fundamentals remain shaky. "A number of consecutive monthly and uneven economic indicators clearly show that the current Chinese economy, although the bottom has stabilized and there has been a good development trend, but the economic growth ofThe fundamentals are still not strong enough to support economic recovery in both the macro and the micro. It still takes time for our economy to truly recover and re-enter the continuing high growth stage. So fiscal and monetary policy will not be transformed for a short period of time, at least until the first half of next year, said the macroeconomic analyst for Qilu Securities, "while policy dynamics will be reduced and there will be no centralized, strong stimulus." "D to the first half of next year or to meet the inflation rate will not appear, the analyst said the second half does not rule out policy fine-tuning possible."　　With the rapid growth of credit over 6 months and the resulting surge in the money supply, the public has a strong expectation of future inflation, which is fully reflected in domestic and foreign asset prices. However, analysts of Qilu Securities believe that because the economic recovery pattern is still not strong, the second half of the use of interest rate hikes and reserve ratio to deal with inflation "dose" is unlikely. "It is possible to issue a one-year or longer period of central votes to deal with inflation," he said.　　"E alert to economic recovery should not be too optimistic analysts also reminded that China's economic growth depends mainly on investment and external demand for a long time, the economy from internal and external imbalances to rebalancing is a relatively lengthy process of adjustment, it is impossible to complete in one overnight. In addition, economic growth in the first 5 months of this year has benefited more from the rapid growth in fixed asset investment fuelled by the increasing volume of new credit. Real investment growth will be more than 40% per cent, given the decline in investment prices, but the new capacity generated by too fast investment is bound to weigh heavily on the release of capacity over the next few years in the context of a prolonged global slump. "China's economy is unlikely to return to its original high growth against the backdrop of an economic recovery that is still without a convincing recovery in the world economy." ”