GEM-price P/E: Overdraft growth, fear of disaster

Newspaper reporter Wang Zhaoji Beijing report with the third batch of gem online purchase, ten years grinding a sword gem really into the sprint stage.　　However, after nearly one months of a vigorous IPO, three companies issued a higher-than-average price-earnings ratio, compared with 52 times-and 57.19 times-fold earnings multiples of the first two groups, and the third group of gem firms averaged even as much as 57.5 times times.　　Of the 28 companies, Ding Han Technology (300011) is 82.22 times times the number one, and the shares of the company (300023) are up to 81.67 times times, while the remaining 26 are trading at more than 40 times multiples. "Huaxia Times" through interviews with a number of market participants understand that the rapid growth of the gem brought about by the high price has aroused the attention of some organizations, participation has tended to cautious.　　In the future performance of high P/E, the growth is faced with a lot of uncertainties, the company will face polarization after the listing, and break and then directly to the risk of return to the market can not be belittled.　　The price-earnings ratio is the biggest winner of the recent capital market. Statistics show that 28 companies in total fund-raising scale reached 15.478 billion yuan.　　Among them, the third batch of 9 companies to raise the total amount of 4.531 billion yuan, compared with the estimated financing scale of 2.1 billion yuan higher than nearly 116%. In this respect, Li Dahuan, director of the British Securities Institute in the "Huaxia Times" reporter interview Blunt: Gem is really a bit high.　　The gem, which is characterized by high risk, should have a certain margin of safety on the price. In his view, 10% of the opening rate for the main board 1% of the financing scale, there is a certain degree of imbalance between supply and demand. At present, some have overdrawn future growth, do not rule out the possibility of break. Of course, the purchase and motherboard guidance is different, and no price guidance, the price reflects the sentiment of investors, so the purchase is not completely without risk. "Buy the value of the thing, otherwise you will not buy it."　　Li Dahuan said. "No way, this is a share of the common problems, the IPO price has been high, the gem is only higher."　　A senior commentator told reporters bluntly.　　Reporter noted that, as the gem gradually approaching, the fund company's interest in this surge, not only the road show to raise questions more active, the amount of funds involved in the purchase and price increases each time. Some institutions insiders to reporters bluntly: in order to achieve effective rate of purchase, the second and third batch of quotations have been improved, virtually the overall price of the IPO raised.　　However, their participation in the amount of funds is limited, the problem is not big. According to the company's 2009-year expected performance statistics, and 28 companies have an average of 37.4 times times earnings.　　In combination with its expected growth, this level of valuation is acceptable and there is no apparent overvaluation. Among them, Huayi Brothers, South Wind shares, Ai er, le PU Medical, internet technology, billion-Wei Li 6 companies have a dynamic P/e ratio of more than 40 times times, itsThe Chinese Brotherhood is the highest, reaching 57 times times, while the other 5 companies are 50 times times below.　　Given the good prospects of the companies in the industry and the company's leading position in the industry, it is understandable that institutional investors are asking such a high price. However, the real price risk is also after the listing.　　After all, the issue price has reflected the company's growth expectations to a large extent, gem first batch of enterprises after the IPO, if the big hype, too high valuation is bound to overdraft its growth, then the risk of intervention in the two-tier market is very large. The hype is hard to avoid statistics show that from 2008 operating profit growth rate to maintain more than 50% of the growth of enterprises only 10, and Li Chen (300010) and other 5 companies only single-digit growth. From the forecast growth rate of 2009 and 2010, the average growth rate of the gem is 10, including the shares of Bao-DE, ding-han technology and the Shenzhou-Yue 80%, 77% and 69% respectively.　　However, the average growth rate of 11 companies is below 30%. "Limited by industry competition, economic fluctuations, market development and other factors, SMEs if the continued high growth will be a great challenge."　　"For the future growth of gem companies Zhang tend to be cautious." Predictably, the 28 companies listed after the stock price trend will be polarized, strong stronger.　　And the motherboard does not resemble St, St transition stage, will face the possibility of direct exit.　　In this respect, Li Dahuan pointed out that the investment ratio of gem and risk tolerance, choose quality rather than choice quality inferior, avoid excessive price purchase. "We will choose more from the fundamentals.　　"Yi People fund researcher Yan told reporters that the current three batch of gem companies do exist very large differences, some 80 times times the issue price of the price has been overdrawn for the next few years performance, the risk is very large, do not exclude the listing after the high open low walk, but do not exclude local stocks have strong Zhuang intervention However, some analysts believe that the gem will still take some time to achieve the stock number and the relative supply and demand balance between investors, so the recent Venture board new stock purchase risk is still very low. In the early days of the gem launch, the market's excessive speculation may make its average valuation reached the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index of 4 times times, that is about 80 times times.　　As a result, the average first-day rise is expected to be around 110%. Hengtai Securities analyst Xudong that the gem listing performance and the motherboard market has a great relationship, now the gem is not very valuable, the future below the IPO price is normal.　　However, the market has gradually gone well, if the successful stand on the 3,000 points above the opening will be sought after. However, the current management hope not to trigger the stock price of the outbreak of speculation, currently see only 28 of the simultaneous listing method is not enough, the latter can not avoid the impact of hot money.