Global CDMA See China (end article): A game of a few people

February 2 C114 News (Zhou Guijun) This is destined to be a minority game, especially in the entire industrial chain "pyramid" ecological environment has not changed significantly under the premise.　　After 2009 years of madness, it seems that everything is back to the original point. But the results can not be denied: China Telecom so that the poor and weak CDMA terminal market share reached 27%, the social operating ratio reached 73%, compared to the beginning of the 18% growth of 55%. Terminal sales reached 30 million units throughout the year, up 315% from 08 year-on-year. The number of CDMA users broke through 55 million, doubling than last year. China Telecom has also been awarded "Global CDMA Operator Leader Award" by CDG. "For this leadership award, it's more embarrassing to be happy." China Telecom will continue to dominate in the next few years, regardless of the overall user growth rate, the continuous penetration of the 3G business and the terminal demand for the market. Verizon Wireless, Sprint Nextel and KDDI are likely to be faster on the web than China Telecom in the global four-tier CDMA operators, and as a result of both investment and competition, LTE's chariot will be hard to stop once it opens.　　What's more, Sprint Nextel and KDDI also have layouts in WiMAX.　　Bleak 2008: The era begins to end. 2008 is China's telecommunications industry pattern rewrite the year, through the surgical operation of the operator reorganization, the formation of three strength of the overall balance of business operators, especially the CDMA network high prices to the desire to mobile license for many years of China Telecom. Whether Giants can rise again, success or failure make-or. The whole industry chain is also waiting, hoping to fundamentally solve the problem of poor and weak.　　But the industrial chain interest conduction mechanism is the objective law, the terminal as close to the consumer product, naturally ranked behind, the CDMA terminal industry is more confused. Although from the introduction of CDMA, the industry has been criticized constantly, but the C-net users or stumbled into the development of 50 million, began to enter the profit channel. But at that time, the operation of China Unicom Chaos unknown terminal industrial policy or make many companies at a distance, including the world's number one manufacturer Nokia. Look around the C net camp, can be divided into three kinds: first, Samsung, LG and Motorola, these old terminal manufacturers, they are in the foreign market share of C net is higher, in the domestic only part of the product transplant; second, Huawei and ZTE as the representative of the system integration vendors, they have a deeper understanding of the needs of operators,　　Product form is also relatively rich; the third is the Yulong, Hisense, Lenovo, as the representative of the domestic independent brands, they are more dependent on the domestic market for sales, there is a relatively clear segment of the market, in the high profits of products, life is also good. One of the Woo Dragon Cool Pie is a specimen, this by virtue of dual-mode technology, and in the C-net market in Guangdong Enterprises, but also successfully publishedLand capital markets. But the embarrassment is that dual-mode duo too with Chinese characteristics, but also rely too much on China Unicom's centralized procurement.　　In the network delivery and construction cycle, the rapid decline in the company's history, the first large-scale loss, Chengye Xiao. The pains are inevitable, but the era of the whole industry is beginning to end. Along with the network side of the construction near the end, China Telecom broke out the impressive strength.　　To a large number of terminal subsidies, mobile fixed business bundled sales and cross-subsidization, a variety of forms of product terminals represented by the first wave of China Telecom C network. Crazy 2009: The short rain of the industry chain equitably 2009 was a crazy year in the communications field, three of operators spend a lot of money; equipment manufacturers, although relatively hard, but still earn a bowl full of money, the transfer of interest chain needs time, terminal, application and network optimization in 2010 years before the harvest period.　　But CDMA is due to the change of operation main body, ushered in the abnormal harvesting period in advance. Within a year to achieve the national coverage of 3G network, more than 500 cities, 2,055 counties and the eastern coastal region more than 6,000 relatively developed towns, which is a global operating industry to look askance data; a year to double the number of users, or in a mobile communication penetration rate of more than 50%,　　Countries with a serious regional economic imbalance, this is a thing that makes opponents crazy; within a year through the electric shock therapy will be the bottom of the industrial chain terminal manufacturers, from the original 50 to close to 200, this is a chain upstream zhongdi. In addition to Motorola, Samsung, LG and other traditional CDMA mobile phone companies and Huawei, ZTE and other systems integration enterprises, the original GSM mobile phone Nokia, Tianyu Lanton, Dopod, PHS, do the navigation instrument of the yutong, and even do color TV panda electronics, Skyworth, Do refrigerators, such as the United States and the CDMA industry chain.　　Faced with such a noisy list, operators are both loving and hating. Can not take the initiative in the early days of the industrial chain, in the initial 6 million terminal collection, "Rain equitably" became the guiding ideology, more than hundreds of thousands of, small only thousands of, but this still gives the industry chain is not a small shock. With China Telecom to earn money, and earn is not so hard.　　But in the operating market, uneven product quality and market positioning, but to China Telecom has brought great trouble. Low-end or even ultra-low-end users, in a high proportion of subsidies, indeed become a siege of the pull of the sword. Take the university market as an example, China Telecom CDMA market Holdings has increased dramatically, but at the same time the phenomenon of the machine is also appearing at the same time, low-end users of the price sensitivity also led to a rise in the net rate.　　Most crucially, it has clearly angered China Mobile and unicom, undermining the entire industry's survival pattern. At the same time, this and China Telecom Sky Wing in the high-end market and Internet mobile phone positioning is also far from the terminal and business matching topic began to surface. On the one hand is a stable to cover the national 3GNetwork, on the one hand, it is difficult to support mobile broadband access terminals flooded the market. At the annual meeting, Yang Xiaowei, deputy general manager of China Telecom, said: "2010 no matter which manufacturer, as long as it is launched in line with the market demand of the Millennium 3G Terminals, China Telecom will give strong support, but for low-end mobile phones, China Telecom will no longer provide subsidies." "The radical behavior considering the number of users also completes the primitive accumulation of the ecological basis to some extent." The telecommunication economy is a typical scale economy, the network benefit and the user scale are very high.　　Yang Xiaowei has pointed out that on this basis, China Telecom will develop 100 million users, break through the critical point of scale economy, completely change the existing operating industry pattern. The new 2010:CDMA market is difficult to find cottage perhaps, CDMA market has never appeared "cottage". The barbaric innovation of the cottage is based on the low cost and is based on the strong vitality of the industrial chain.　　In the system to follow the evolution of hopeless, the overall shrinking of the industry chain in the reality, the cottage is doomed to a flash in the pan. On the 2010 specific operation strategy, China Telecom has been identified as "to solve the terminal bottlenecks as a breakthrough to stimulate the development of industrial chain vitality." At the same time, China Telecom annual work conference that, if the price and GSM mobile phone, the CDMA handset is still not dominant, so, to build and GSM mobile phone differentiation, focus on high-end mobile phones is naturally the best policy. It also means that some low-end CDMA handset makers are facing a transformation.　　Of course, they have another way out of the market that they don't belong to. This is not only reminiscent of last year's 3.6 million CDMA EVDO mobile phone bidding. Telecom Tianyi Terminal Company General Manager Madaujie smiled personally to 10 manufacturers to issue tenders, "the opportunity is placed in front of everyone, we hope that through more manufacturers to participate, and jointly build a good terminal industry chain." In the course of the day's hair labeling, a total of more than 70 terminal manufacturers to participate, only Samsung, LG, Motorola, Nokia, Tianyu, Yulong, ZTE, Huawei, Hisense, Lenovo Mobile 10 companies are invited to take the stage to receive bids, and the rest of the business representatives are to the back of the chamber to collect their own.　　The 10 companies are also jokingly called "CDMA 10 Cores". Last year, China Telecom also had some cottage complex, because China Mobile's success is too tempting. "In the case of a handful of manufacturers leading the industry chain, only the products and models of these manufacturers are still unable to meet the requirements." Only c net also appears similar to G net the cottage machine industry chain, can fundamentally solve the terminal problem.　　"This is a consensus of many people. China Telecom is a practice, first outbound acquisition of MediaTek Rumors, and then officially signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Granville, in technical cooperation, product development, industry promotion and other areas of "all-round cooperation." Madaujie has pointed out, "the past CDMA market is by Qualcomm alone, mobile phone manufacturers lack of choice, high cost, restricting product development, and Granville to join the market competition, can rely on lower chip prices, highCost-effective chipset, complete solutions and follow-up services and other advantages, effectively enhance the end-user participation in the market enthusiasm, rapid enrichment, terminal product line. "The current domestic CDMA 3G mobile phone minimum to 500 yuan, this year, China Telecom will focus on building thousand 3G smartphone, can have a keen sense of smell digestion of this thinking transformation, this is including Granville's core, low-end CDMA handset manufacturers, including the survival of the fundamental." In the promotion of socialized sales of the CDMA terminal industry, the terminal manufacturers themselves the importance of product brands, which is "cottage" are unbearable.　　3G in a few years, will not appear shanzhai, and the focus of China Telecom is 3G. At the same time, it is hard for traditional handset makers, who leave their customised businesses and lack platform technology and technology, to be self-reliant in the 3G era.　　In the application of the King's Technology competition era, relying on integrated chip assembly molding of the cottage power, in the 3G application guide Apple, Google, Nokia and so still appear insignificant, domestic mobile phones than the 2G era more easily exclaiming. In the brief "shanzhai" attempt of China Telecom, it changed the form of industrial chain to some extent, and increased the discourse power of CDMA manufacturing in China. With full confidence, but in the CDMA brand market expansion is difficult, the future development of hard material; more of those gold diggers, after a brief carnival, dim away; As for Qualcomm, which has paid some price, it has extended the CDMA lifecycle from a deeper level,　　Increased CDMA's global industry discourse power. The global outlook of CDMA terminals: rev.b bottlenecks are inevitable, like climbing a mountain, and after painstakingly boarding a platform, only to find that there is a steeper hillside in front of it.　　For China Telecom, REV.B is one of them, it is also the global CDMA operators have to face the problem. REV.B is the global CDMA network is commonly used in a version of the upgrade version, through the introduction of new technology, you can achieve downlink 9.3mbps/uplink 5.4Mbps peak rate. From the theoretical value (in the same spectrum resources), to exceed the HSPA transmission rate, and network upgrade cost controllable.　　With HSPA sweeping the globe, REV.B became one of the main potential weapons the operator could resist. The strength of the 3GPP camp is not only the richness and smooth transition of the network technology itself, but also its network deployment scale and the support of the global mainstream operators. According to relevant statistics, the global HSPA network has been deployed close to 200, and 54 operators have deployed or announced the deployment of HSPA networks, including 26 HSPA commercial networks already deployed in 19 countries.　　HSPA becomes the choice of the global mainstream mobile operators such as Telstra, Vodafone, O2, Emobile and Telus&bell to move to the mobile broadband process. On the other side of the REV.B, the deployment of the network has already begun an outfield test,And in this year to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu and other large cities began commercial coverage, but in the business load, rev.b compared with REV.A, there is no fundamental difference. The most critical is the lack of terminal shape and chip support. The mobile phones that support HSPA are already commercially mature, and the HSPA data cards that support 21Mbps and 28Mbps have been stabilized commercially, while rev.b only the online card products that are still being tested. For the terminal manufacturers, do not have the bulk of the loss of shipments. To the domestic largest CDMA mobile phone design company de Letter wireless, for example, a mature mobile phone requires 20 research and development personnel about 4 months to design, according to each research and development personnel monthly costs (including wages and office expenses) 20,000 yuan calculation, design costs close to 1.6 million yuan.　　In the terminal (cell phone) sales can not be guaranteed, the manufacturers naturally dare not intervene. The success of China Telecom's REV.B strategy does not depend entirely on its own strength, and the choice of three other mainstream operators, Verizon Wireless, Sprint and KDDI, is also critical. Although Verizon has not explicitly renounced rev.b, it has announced the deployment of the LTE network, and KDDI will launch WIMAX/CDMA dual-mode services in the next six months to enhance its competitiveness in the mobile broadband market; Sprint Nextel has not made a clear statement on the evolution of the Web, But its company, Clearware, has the largest WiMAX network in the United States.