Gold: The second half of the price has been overdrawn

Jacky Ren Yu Investor newspaper (reporter Nimpengyu) "Selected Jing Huangjin (600489.SH) Calculate the right, this time I must have caught."　　"One months ago, when Mr. Zhou made up his mind to buy gold, I am afraid I did not think that this time I really bet on this treasure, the recent gold rising market conditions let him grin." Mr Zhou, already 70 teenage, is a new investor in the stock market in recent years, changing hands so much that he barely protected the capital at the start of the year.　　As the news of the gold bullion business as a whole was being watched, he bought gold on the basis of the future company's good asset injection forecasts and the continued strength of the international gold price. And then this period of time, gold in the interpretation of the classic shock upward trend, in a short period of one months, the stock price continued to rise 100%.　　According to China Securities analyst Pempo Analysis, Gold's recent continuous rise has led to the stock price deviation from the company's fundamentals, pure funds to speculate.　　But industry insiders said that from the long-term perspective, gold prices in the past two years will remain volatile upward trend, and with the copper, zinc and other non-ferrous metals market, the performance of gold in the second half of this year is worth looking forward to.　　The second half of the expected asset injection at present, Mr. Zhou most expect the matter is CICC group gold assets on the whole listing. At the end of May this year, Sun Chaoxue, chairman of CICC Group, said the group was expected to inject 7 of its mining assets into its listed companies in the next 4 months.　　Despite the company's announcement that there was no fixed timetable for asset injections, insiders said the injection of the assets would certainly be completed within the year, if not unexpectedly. CICC Gold June 6 announced that the company to 255 million yuan under the gold group under the Hebei Golden Plant Valley Mining and Henan qinling Gold mining each of the 100% equity.　　Analysts said the injection of these two gold assets indicates that the gold industry of China Gold Group has accelerated the overall listing pace. In addition to the above two mines, CICC also plans to be held by the CICC holdings of mining, Shek Wu Mining, Xinjiang Jintan Mining, Song County jinniu Mining, Song County former River Mining 5 Enterprises All equity, is currently doing the preparatory work of the acquisition,　　The 7 companies maintain 114.80 tons of gold resources, with an annual output of 5.439 tonnes of gold.　　In accordance with the Gold Development plan, 2009 will have 400 tons of gold resources reserves, production of 20 tons of gold, total assets reached 10 billion yuan, 2010 to reach more than 500 tons of reserves, gold production reached 25 tons. As the only national Gold Enterprise, China Gold Group control of gold reserves accounted for more than 30% of the total gold reserves. It is reported that last year, China Gold Group Holdings of Gold metal has reached 1149 tons, visible gold assets in the future to inject a huge amount. The Yangshan gold mine, which was acquired in August last year, is the most worthy of anticipation--------------------------------------------------- Current，The proven reserves of the winning Yangshan Gold Ore section have doubled, and the Chinese gold Group will take the initiative in the future battle for gold resources in the rest of the country. The three major factors guarantee growth despite the excellent gold mineral injection expectations, but because gold production costs have been high, Mr. Zhou also worried that the company's 2009 profit target can be successfully achieved.　　Especially in the first quarter of 2009, the company's profitability is not ideal: the company's first quarter to achieve sales revenue of 3.187 billion yuan, down 31.55%, to achieve net profit of 57.64 million yuan, down 63.57%, earnings per share only 0.16 yuan. Due to the company's natural endowments and grade reasons, the company's gold production cost of 130 yuan/gram, 2008 years more than 139 yuan/grams, gold production costs have been in the industry a higher level.　　In terms of gross profit, 2008, the company's mineral gold gross margin is only 48.03%, and the same period of Shandong Gold mining gold margin up to 53.79%. In this respect, the industry said that the second half of 2009 gold performance will have triple guarantee. First, asset injection will improve the company's business structure and improve the profitability of the company's gold business. According to the 2008 annual report, the company's mineral gold revenue accounted for only 15% of operating income, but contributed 62.79% of the sales profit, while the smelting gold, which accounted for 77.49% of operating income, contributed 5.29% of the sales profit.　　Asset injection will increase the proportion of mineral gold, Bohai Securities believe that if the company to achieve injection commitment, 2009 will produce about 13.5 tons of mineral gold, in accordance with the 790 million total share capital diluted, can achieve earnings per share of about 0.81 yuan. Company performance from the fourth quarter of 2008, the reason for the decline was the gold and copper, silver, sulfuric acid and iron concentrate and other products, the impact of the fall in the fourth quarter of 2008, the overall gross profit margin fell 4%, the first quarter of 2009 sales gross profit margin continued to decline 2.24% to 8.14%.　　At present, the profit contribution more than 30% of copper, sulfuric acid and iron concentrate and other products prices have been out of the bottom, will bring a second guarantee for the company's performance. The biggest guarantee of gold's earnings in the second half of the year comes from a firm gold price. In the industry, although the price of gold in the 1000 dollar/ounce line is very big differences, but now most of the industry is still bullish on the next two years gold prices.　　Professional organizations, including the World Gold Association, say that in the long run, gold is still in short supply and the beauty of gold prices will continue. Pempo Securities analyst also approved the next two years gold prices will continue to shock upward view. "In fact, if you value this, choose gold, Purple Gold, or Shandong Gold, there is no problem," she said. The gold price rises, is good to these golden production company. However, Pempo suggested that the trade risk of gold should be paid attention to in the near future. She pointed out that even if CICC's 2009 earnings per share finally reached her forecast of 0.41 yuan twice times, or even 1 yuan level, is not enough to support theBefore such a high stock price, Gold's P/E is "too high".