Golden Globes play a role in the Oscar's direction weakened by Portman

The Golden Globe Awards for Oscar's "vane" effect on weakening the match between the Golden Globes and the Oscars table "social networking" poster map "Black Swan" poster data map the 83rd annual Oscar will be held in Beijing time next Monday.　　Dubbed the "Oscar Vane" Golden Globes in recent years, a sharp decline in word-of-mouth, the role of the wind vane how much? Our data group recently found that, overall, the Golden Globes "prediction" Oscar's precision showed a weakening trend.　　Chinese and foreign critics point out that the Golden Globes have not been as professional as Oscar, and thus are drifting away from Oscar. Historical Data Golden Globe Awards Four awards coincidence rate 55% Golden Globes and Oscar awards are issued once a year, and the former is prior to the latter.　　All along, the Golden Globes have been seen as an Oscar-setter because of the high coincidence of awards and Oscars.　　So, how much is the coincidence rate between the two?　　Our data group after the 1944 Golden Globes and Oscar-winning list after combing found that in the best film, best Director, Best Actor, best Actress in the four awards, the coincidence rate of both more than 55%, of which the best male and female lead the coincidence rate even more than 70%. It is worth mentioning that in 2004, the 76th annual Oscar and the 61st film Golden Globes, the history of the most astonishing coincide.　　The best film, the best actor and actress, the best supporting actor, the best screenwriter, and so on several major awards exactly coincide, the coincidence rate as high as 100%.　　Golden Globes Oscars four awards overlap List Awards coincide Award winning film total number of films the best film 44 65.7% Best Director 37 55.2% Best Actress 47 70.1% Best Actor 49 73.1% Precision weakened 2005 to 2010 Best film only hit 1 times In recent years, however, the Golden Globes seem to be no longer the "Prelude" to an Oscar's precise predictions.　　The main reason is that the coincidence rate between the best film and the best director is a downward trend. From 2005 to 2010, only one film won the Golden Globes and Oscar's best film, The Slumdog Millionaire.　　And like "Atonement", "New York Gang", "Brokeback Mountain", "Avatar" have won the Golden Globes Best Film awards, but not the best Film Oscar Award. And in the selection of the best director, the difference between the two styles is getting larger and bigger.　　For example, since 1999, only 7 directors have won the Golden Globes and the Academy Award for Best Director, with a coincidence rate of only about 54%. The "Social Network", which won the 2011 Golden Globe Award for Best Film, won the Oscar nomination for best film.　　According to recent trends, it is estimated that the "social network" to get the best film Oscar is not high probability.　　Link Golden Globes the Golden Globe Award, which began in 1943 and is hosted by the Hollywood Foreign Correspondents Association, is one of the most important awards in the American film and television industry. Oscar "Ox.Kakin is the official name of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences Award, established in 1927 and held annually in Los Angeles, United States. For 8 consecutive years, the "movie Queen" Point is still in the best male and female actress awards, the Golden Globe Award for Oscar's role in the wind vane still exists.　　Among them, the leading role of the best actress is becoming more and more obvious. According to statistics, from 2003 to 2010, the best actress in the Golden Globe Award was crowned Oscar's "movie Queen" crown.　　In this view, the 83rd annual Oscar Best Actress-Portman ("Black Swan") and Bening ("Children are very good") the most likely to be the first. "Movie Queen" 8 consecutive years coincide 2003 Nicole Kidman ("Every Moment") 2004 Charliz Selon ("The Devil") 2005 swank ("Million Dollar Baby") 2006 Reese ("Indomitable") 2007 Mirren ("Queen") 2008　　Marion Thea ("The Rose Of Life") 2009 Winslet ("The Road of the Revolution") 2010 Bullock ("warm rugby") industry analysis Oscar uphold professional Golden Globe Award to Market Bow Gold Ball Award in recent years, the professional weakening, it is leading to its increasingly far away from the Oscar and the main reason. The National Film Critics Association consists of more than 50 major American newspapers, weekly and magazine film critics, such as "Comprehensive Arts", "Times", "Newsweek" and "film review".　　Kevin Thomas, Gerald Pirry, a two member of the association, told reporters this morning that the Golden Globes had been criticized by the mainstream media in recent years, and that the professional level had been criticized less and less. The judges of the Golden Globes are composed of members of the Foreign Correspondents ' Association and are the media awards, while Oscar's organizers are the American Academy of Film Arts and Sciences, and the judges who participate in the selection of the film industry are engaged in all types of work.　　Kevin Thomas points out that the judges of the Golden Globes in recent years are strictly not journalists, but some writers. In addition to the jury is not professional, the Golden Globes in recent years the credibility of the media has also continued to decline. "The Golden Globes are driven by the benefits of television, and they need to ensure that big-name stars attend the awards ceremony."　　"Gerald Pirry said.　　In particular, he noted that in the United States, the "fatal companion", the leading actress Angelina Jolie was nominated for the Golden Globes, attracted many questions, many people believe that the move is to ensure that Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt can attend. Chinese film critics have also expressed a similar view: "The Golden Globes consider more popular stars appear on the scene, and always worry about the star of the Oscar more consideration is the industry norms and long-term development." "In addition, many film critics believe that the Golden Globes and Oscar in the winner, movie Awards, the coincidence rate is relatively high, is playing a digital game: Golden Ball Award of the best male and female characters are divided into drama class and music category two kinds, and every year, the most popular Oscar candidates are locked two people; This is the same as buying lottery tickets, buy one more, the probability of winning the lottery naturally increased by one times. Author of this edition/reporter Gaojiayang Gang intern reporter Zhang Tingting