Grain market price of the first quarter and forecast of two quarter trend

One or one quarter grain market price situation (a) the domestic market grain prices stable in a rise of 1, raw acquisition price. First quarter, due to the decline of rice in northeastern region last year, the impact of drought in southwest China and the market of Japonica rice market, and so on, the purchase price of Japonica Rice rose more and the price level was much higher than that of last year, but as the country increased the market regulation, the rally slowed down month by season. The price of wheat purchase remained basically stable. On average, the average purchase price of three crops in the main producing areas was 94.3 yuan per 50 kg in January-March, up 12.6% from the same period last year.　　Among them paddy, wheat, corn purchase price is 103.8 yuan, 99.4 yuan, 79.7 yuan respectively, Rise 8.4%, 10.2%, 21.9% respectively in the same period last year. 2. Retail price of finished food. In the first quarter, the price of Japonica rice was increased more by the early stage, and the retail prices rose more; rice and flour retail prices rose slightly.　　January-March average, the early rice retail price of 36 large and medium-sized cities averaged 1.63 yuan per catty, late rice was 1.79 yuan, japonica rice was 2.04 yuan, standard powder was 1.71 yuan, and Fu Qiang powder was 1.92 yuan, up 6.3%, 5%, 11.6%, 5.3% and 6.3% respectively in the same period last year. (b) The international market for food prices fell in the first quarter, the international market, wheat, rice prices fell month after year, corn prices first down and then stable. On average, the price of wheat and corn futures in the Chicago market averaged $183 a tonne, 146 dollars per ton in January-March, down 9.4% and 1.6%, respectively, over the same period last year.　　Thai rice (including broken 10%), Vietnamese rice (including 5%) spot FOB price per ton of 539 U.S. dollars, 437 U.S. dollars, compared with the same period last year, Thai rice fell 8.2%, Vietnamese rice rose 2.3%.　　Two or two quarter grain price trend forecast comprehensive analysis, is expected to two quarters domestic market grain price will continue to stabilize slightly rises, the international market grain price presents the low fluctuation situation. (a) The domestic market grain prices continue to stabilize a little more than six years of continuous harvest of grain, the production needs to balance more than, this year summer sown area increased, although the southwest region suffered severe drought, but the impact on the national grain production, the country has enough grain source control market, conducive to the domestic grain market With the state regulation of food market measures the effect of the gradual appearance of the policy, the two quarter of grain prices are expected to stabilize slightly. Look at the varieties: 1, the purchase price of Japonica rice will gradually stabilize, the increase in retail prices in the space is limited. With the country's increasing control of the Japonica rice market, the main market of the late Japonica rice price bullish expectations gradually weakened, processing and circulation of enterprises in the rice procurement tend to be cautious. At present, North East farmers and enterprises in the hands of some of the higher moisture of rice, with the temperature gradually increased, high moisture content of rice to save more difficulty, the sale will be enhanced. Early-stage Japonica rice acquisition price increases more, will gradually conduction to the retail market, the retail price of Japonica will also rise, but grain processing lineIndustry competition is fierce, plus the country constantly increase the regulation of rice market, later rice retail price increase space is limited. 2, Indica and rice prices will remain basically stable. Since the beginning of March, the state has lowered the temporary storage price of Indica rice, but the market transaction is still relatively flat, the recent reserve Indica Rice auction average turnover rate still hovering around 15%. In mid-April, the country further increased the temporary storage of Indica Rice, the weekly temporary storage of Indica rice sales from 1.4 million tons to 2 million tons, conducive to stabilizing the Indica Rice (m) market price.　　Overall, because of Indica rice stocks more, the state has strong regulatory capacity, weak demand, the two-quarter indica and rice prices are expected to continue to maintain basic stability. 3. Wheat and flour prices will remain basically stable. Since this year, the northern part of winter wheat in the main areas of cold frost weather, the wheat production has some impact, local areas may be reduced, but with the implementation of the country's weak seedling fertilization subsidies, increase the production of the creation of subsidies and other measures to implement, in addition to further strengthen field practice, Henan and other This year the wheat market will remain more productive than needed. Recently, the country has further increased its wheat auctions, with the number of auctions rising from 4 million tonnes a week to 4.5 million tonnes, and the wheat market is plentiful.　　 In combination, the price of wheat and flour is expected to remain basically stable in the two quarter. 4, corn prices will be stable in a slightly rising trend. With the improvement of corn deep-processing Enterprises, the two-quarter corn procurement is expected to be more positive, may pull corn prices rise. But at present farmers still have a large number of corn has not yet been sold, as the temperature gradually increased, custody more difficult to increase the willingness to sell, the country has been auctioned in the northeastern region of temporary storage of corn, to some extent, to curb the rise in corn prices.　　Overall, it is expected that corn prices in the two quarter will be stable in a slightly higher trend. (b) Food prices in the international market will be low volatility. On the one hand, the world food market is still more than the need for the pattern, inventory increased, the price rose weak. According to the USDA's April 2010 estimate, the world grain supply rose to 2.671 billion tonnes in 2009/10, with a demand of 2.195 billion tonnes for more than needed, and a closing inventory of 476 million tonnes, up 6% from the previous year. On the other hand, as the international economy picks up, oil price shocks will drive up the price of corn for biofuel production and, in turn, other food prices. Overall, the two-quarter international market prices are expected to remain low volatility. As the global liquidity is more abundant, the possibility of international speculative funds investing in commodity markets with relatively weaker early speculation is increasing.