Greek crisis or burning to the United States

The Greek prime minister has pinned the hope of resolving the crisis on U.S. financing, although the size of the $10 billion trillion is not big, but it is likely to herald a Greek crisis or will burn to the U.S. mainland. In other words, the Greek crisis itself is a sovereign debt crisis, the Greek authorities ' euro-debt payments crisis, which should have been only in the context of euro payments, would have "bilateral aid" from countries such as Germany and France, but this time Greece's desperate attempt to finance a hair-salon debt is likely to reveal behind the Greek currency swap deal　　Could spark and magnify the exposure of US domestic financial institutions, which are in effect likely to ignite in the US. Simply put, the crisis will not worsen if the Greek authorities raise enough euros to pay for maturing bonds, the main reason for the active participation in bilateral rescues by countries such as Germany and France in the EU bailout plan, to prevent Greek authorities from paying defaults, and to pay the debt to Greek banks. Turning the sovereign debt crisis into a payment crisis in the banking system, the biggest advantage of this market-based roadmap is that it first removes the risk of the Greek authorities and gradually solves the payment crisis in the banking system through a market-based approach.　　But the Greek aid package introduced the IMF as a "technical aid", Greece's currency swaps have been raised to the international level, and the Greek authorities are not rushing to raise the euro, but are desperate to raise dollar money, which has sparked speculation about its currency swaps. The benefit of raising dollars is obvious: the current use of dollars to pay Euro bonds can benefit from the appreciation of the dollar and the devaluation of the euro, With Greece raising the euro against the dollar at 1.50 to buy dollars, and now the euro is back to the euro against the dollar by 1.33, the simple swaps benefit about 20% of the exchange, or about 20% of the amount that will be paid in euros, So 10 billion trillion dollars of debt can roughly pay 10 to hundreds of millions of euros in debt, which will eventually reduce the deficit by currency swaps. The problem is that since the Greek authorities are involved in a long-term currency swap, Greece should have bought a huge dollar position at the highest level of the euro, now that the dollar has risen so much that it should have enough dollar positions to return to the euro, or that there should be no issue of dollar payments in the Greek crisis, but only a euro payment problem,　　Why does Greece have to raise dollar money in the United States? From the analysis of sovereign countries ' participation in currency swaps, the Greek authorities issue eurobonds at higher euro rates and then dollar funds to gain exchange benefits when the dollar rises and then return to the euro, given that the Greek national debt level is only about € more than 100 billion, not more than $200 billion trillion, So the Greek authorities ' participation in a € 50 billion currency swap would increase the ability to pay euro 10 billion euros, almost one-tenth of the total deficit, which, if prolonged, would increase exchange benefits and even government revenue, which could conceivably be tempting. ThisLower-risk official investment should not allow the Greek authorities to invest in risky assets in dollar positions in the currency swaps, in other words, a currency swap that holds dollar positions in safe ways, such as US Treasuries, guarantees long-term gains and is unlikely to make a big loss in the financial crisis. Now whether the Greek authorities can raise the dollar capital of the entire rescue package is officially launched, which means that the Greek authorities behind the euro payment crisis, there must be a derivative of the dollar payment crisis, then who has the dollar to pay the crisis? One could be a Greek bank, which would have to be run by its own banks because of the Greek authorities ' dollar funds. There could be a dollar-payment crisis for Greek banks as a result of investment losses, but the message now bodes little for the possibility that Greek banks have been pushed to the guillotine during the financial tsunami; more importantly, Since the main goal of currency swaps is a huge exchange benefit, Greek banks are not taking greater risks, the preferred route of investment is US Treasuries, and are more likely to lend dollars to American peers or companies, and only if US financial institutions or companies fail to return Greek dollar funds in time,　　Will prompt the Greek authorities to raise dollar positions in a desperate way and trigger the IMF's participation in the international financial institutions, which is the real possibility of the dollar's payment problem. Since the Greek authorities ' Euro-payment crisis may have been in the US dollar-paying crisis, it is certain that the Greek crisis is only a matter of sooner or later.