Group Purchase: The ultimate survival rate of 1 per thousand, the following: monthly promotion cost four words 3 million

The rapid development of e-commerce industry, attract domestic capital to kill massively. However, after a few years of running, E-commerce industry also began to face excessive low price competition, excessive reliance on capital promotion and other prominent issues. Into the 2012, some of the group purchase website bankruptcy, the business site suddenly stop advertising ...

Analysts pointed out that the e-commerce industry in the low price of the scale of development model, in the current tightening of the environment, is suffering from the capital to abandon the pressure, if not to achieve profitability, a large number of small and medium-sized e-commerce companies will face survival crisis.

Group Buy: Ultimate survival rate 1 per thousand

Zhou Chi is a hot fan of group buying, but the experience of buying the Lantern Festival has made him cautious about group buying. That day braved 零下10度 cold, he and his girlfriend excitedly came to buy restaurant, but was told that "has with the site to cancel the partnership, buy coupons are not accepted." "And back to the group buying website after the phone call, played a whole day to get through, and refund will need to wait until 15 working days."

In fact, since the end of 2011, domestic companies such as bamboo shoots have been showing signs of shuffling, many firms began to suddenly close provincial branches, shrinking front.

Group buying site in 2011 the performance of the people to marvel, from the beginning of the 2011 in The Thousand Regiment war, to the year of the Million regiment, to the end of the thousand group was eliminated, group buying industry full performance of a "its Hing also Bo, its death is also a crazy farce."

Data show that up to the end of 2011, the country has a total of more than 5,800 group buying sites, and the actual operation of the group of purchase sites from the July peak of 5,100 sharply reduced to the end of 3,900. In other words, in less than half a year, the country has nearly 2000 real-world group buying sites are eliminated, accounting for all the total number of operating group purchase site 30%.

And in the remaining more than 3,000 group buying websites, many have already begun the transformation. "Despite the large scale of domestic e-commerce industry, rapid growth, but so many group buying site is absolutely crazy, not to the top five sites, its survival probability should not be small." "A domestic group buying website vice president of this worry, after the Spring Festival, he frequently and headhunting contact, intend to change jobs."

For the rest of the group, the future shuffle of the road may be more brutal. Everyone company's group purchase website glutinous Rice Network general manager Shenboyang expected, some subdivision category, regional group buy network will survive, but the national comprehensive group buying site, the ultimate survival will not exceed 3 to 5.

Some of the remaining group buying sites have also begun to be forced into transition. NET group buy outsourced to F Group, Poly-US excellent product transformation, many group purchase site transformation for Web site navigation, rebate network, in order to survive in the Internet segmentation industry.

In the spread of the collapse of the same time, group buying is still popular with consumers, group buying volume has climbed, and repeatedly hit new highs. December 2011, the purchase of a single month turnover set a record of 3.5 billion yuan, last year, the annual turnover of up to 21.6 billion yuan, the monthly growth rate of nearly 20%.

"Group Buy to attract users at a low price, and if there is no real for users and businesses to provide value, it is difficult to achieve profitability, low-cost model will be difficult to continue."

In Shenboyang view, 2011 the entire group buying industry experienced a barbaric growth stage, the market is flooded with high pay to dig horns, lose money for business and other unfair competition, and the only advantage is that in a short period of time to educate the market, so that more consumers contact to buy.

The company's report, known as Groupon, revealed that it lost $42.7 million trillion in the fourth quarter of last year, about 8 cents a share, a far cry from the market's previous earnings of 3 cents per share. Living Social, the second-largest U.S. group buying site after Groupon, lost as much as $400 million a year.

Shenboyang that the high labor costs, marketing fees, coupled with the difficult to improve the gross margin, these are leading to group buying network can not be profitable factors.

Not only group buying, but also the loss of the Web site more investors worry.

Business-to-consumer: Monthly Promotion cost four words 3 million

"We're not going to take the first place this year, but we're going to take the priority of boosting efficiency and pursuing profits," he said. "Zhiquan, CEO of the Online mall, said that the E-commerce industry competition strategy is worth rethinking, low-cost strategy is difficult to translate into competitiveness."

The main reason that causes the electronic commerce industry to burn money to fight the scale, is the rapid growth of the industry, everybody wants to stand well in the rapid growth. According to the Analysys think-tank data show, in the 4th quarter of 2011, China's business market volume reached 76.4 billion yuan, the chain growth of 23%, the year-on-year increase of 80%;

Industry observers believe that the domestic e-commerce industry has been the development of the idea is that in the shortest possible time to obtain more users, so that the market share of higher, larger sales, and profit is not e-commerce companies to consider the focus. Some E-commerce company bosses believe that the company's growing size, market share continues to improve, while the company's valuation has been improved, and the problem of capital, through a few rounds of financing to solve, so that the electricity business can lose a few years, in order to gain market share losses.

But there is no answer, at least for now.

The expansion of E-commerce transactions depends on the increase of new users and the repeated purchase of old users. The increase of new users, mainly by publicity and promotion. A key driver of the successful expansion of the business Web site is the web Marketing Alliance, which can lead users to the site through a short period of time to cover a large number of websites. Observe the website Marketing Alliance advertisement Promotion quantity, also can understand from the side the electricity merchant's operating condition. From a well-known domestic marketing alliance data show that in early January this year only about 10 days of time, there are 16 advertisers to stop the promotion of the Alliance, including Tian Fu tea, ai Mu Mall and so on.

And with the rapid development of E-commerce enterprises in recent years, the Web site Marketing Alliance charges are rising, making e-commerce enterprises to promote the cost of high. Cool Online Mall CEO Zhiquan on the Big pour bitter, "the current E-commerce promotion fee is staggering, we in good 123, 360 browsers and other Web site navigation sites put 4 words, one months on 2 million or 3 million yuan, too expensive!" ”

This year, there have been many E-commerce sites have changed the pursuit of the idea of scale. Hundred Li International investment 200 million U.S. dollars to set up the online shoe city, after the online last July, three or four months after the day to reach the scale of 3000 orders, but has not returned from the joy of God, the background department is constantly reflecting the problem: return rate was once as high as 35%. This means that the front office sales of 100 orders, there are up to 35 orders in the door-to-door, encountered a return, refused to pay, this not only brought about the increase in logistics costs, but also bring greater pressure on the company's finances.

Management finally abandoned the year-end Sprint Day Order 5000 plan, instead of more focus on improving internal management, optimization efficiency. You buy online shoes city CMO Xu said, only look at the number of daily orders development model is difficult to continue, the current company management every day before work will pay attention to include daily orders, average order price, return rate and so on 15 indicators, once an indicator appears abnormal, immediately look for the reason. "Burning money to expand the era has passed, E-commerce enterprises if not pay attention to effective growth, it is difficult to go down." ”

2012: The electrical business elimination Year

An investor in the investment sector said that the current operation of an E-commerce site investment starting point of about 30 million yuan, but in the fierce competition, this e-commerce site does not necessarily survive, 30 million yuan investment may be water drift, and if the fund to invest in a traditional shopping malls, the industry "one year, two years flat , three-year "rule, three years later is very likely to make money.

The current risk of e-commerce industry has aroused enough attention in the investment community, many VCs are gradually rational.

Gavin, CEO of the Qing Group, said the electric business industry has invested 4 billion yuan a year, and all the dealers have lost more than 2 billion yuan, VC in 2011 A lot of companies, the value of these companies will be cut off One-third, 2012 is not a listed year, but a year of elimination, a year of life and death.

Despite the industry's elimination, industry giants are still expanding. In attracting old users to repeat the purchase, Jingdong Mall's development process is very typical. Jingdong Mall in early February announced that the company's hotel booking channel is coming online, the company to cooperate with the hotel reached more than 20,000. In June last year, Jing Dong launched the ticket booking channel. Jingdong Mall insiders also revealed that the company will also enter the future segment of the tourism market, in addition to the current air tickets, hotel business, but also will continue to push taxis, vacations and other products.

Since 2004, "SARS" rampant, forced to turn to online sales of electronic products, Jingdong Mall began to run in the field of E-commerce. Jingdong Mall Sales category, from the earliest 3C electronic products, expanded to furniture department stores, apparel, mother and child, books, food, air tickets hotel and other 11 major categories of tens of thousands of brands of products. Some netizens jokingly said, "In addition to the House, in Jingdong Mall can buy every item in the room." ”

In the past few years, Jingdong Mall has maintained a 200% annual growth, has been leading the domestic business E-commerce industry, the current Jingdong mall daily processing volume of more than 300,000, the site daily average PV (page view, Web browsing volume) over 50 million, is expected to 2011 sales close to 30 billion yuan.

The rapid development of support, Jingdong Mall continued external financing. 2007, Jingdong Mall received today's capital of tens of millions of dollars in financing; At the end of 2008, today's capital combined with several other companies to invest in the Jingdong mall 21 million dollars; early 2011, Tiger Fund and other 6 companies to the Jingdong Mall capital injection of 1.5 billion U.S. dollars, this is the domestic Internet industry's largest single financing

Liu, chairman of Jingdong Mall's board of directors, said from main 3C transformation online integrated retailer is the most important strategic goal of Jingdong Mall, and nearly 3-5 years is an important opportunity for category expansion, Jingdong will adhere to the "one-stop shopping integrated platform" of the whole category strategy, according to the market, the user's needs and team's ability to continuously match, Launch new product categories at the right time.

Insiders pointed out that Jingdong Mall constantly expand the category of practice, in essence, in order to enhance the old user's repeat purchase rate, and the use of traffic advantages in a number of subdivision areas of advance layout. Cool Online Mall is also expanding the category, is about to launch home products, and will be based on market demand to add new categories. The site CEO Wang, despite the industry faced with huge losses of pressure, but Jingdong, Fank and other giants of the market rhythm is not expected to change, under the support of huge funds, will adhere to the previous expansion of market strategy, under the double pressure, small and medium-sized E-commerce Enterprises will be more difficult to survive. "I hope the electronic commerce of the winter as soon as possible, so shuffle, the industry will be more rational competition." Although the growth of e-commerce industry will still be very high, but if everyone has maintained the state of burning money, the industry will be difficult to continue to play, do not make money in the industry will eventually hurt themselves and users. ”

"Retail Enterprises" Internet access under the cold line advantages difficult to reflect

In recent years, traditional retail and chain enterprises have net. Although the development of E-commerce can help the traditional retail industry to keep pace with the new trend, but also may bring hidden dangers to enterprises. China Securities newspaper reporter research more than traditional retail, chain enterprises to understand, in the process from scratch, from small to large, in addition to capital, talent, operating experience and other issues, it is difficult to line up with the advantages of online, the traditional retail development of E-commerce is the biggest stumbling block.

Many traditional retail enterprises said that the development of E-commerce is the inevitable trend of retail channels, not participation will lag behind. However, different enterprises to develop e-commerce ideas are different: Suning, gome with the help of the original supply chain, logistics advantages, rapid expansion of the size of the electric business, Yintai, Canton, such as the establishment of independent companies to operate the electricity business, trying to cross the bottleneck; Guangzhou friendship (000987, shares bar) and other enterprises are mainly based on the realization line under the lines of Steady development.

Business performance challenged

Most of the retail business site traffic is scarce, such as the Broad Hundred shares (002187, shares bar), Guangzhou Friendship, the daily average IP traffic site is only about 3000, the actual order quantity is scarce. And the momentum is fierce suning easy to buy is to exaggerate sales, whether it can really bring profits to the enterprise contribution is difficult to judge.

What indicators can be used to evaluate the development process of electric business? Industry insiders pointed out that each phase of the focus of different, in the initial stage of business development, focus on traffic and popularity, then need to see conversion rate, that is, can be converted to the actual sales performance. The number of IP visits and PV browsing volume can reflect the business operation, which is reflected by the popularity and Word-of-mouth, and the conversion rate is embodied as the shopping flow, user experience and so on.

Data show that the recent daily average IP visit of Bai 2400, the daily average PV browsing volume of 5700 or so, Guangzhou Friendship Store network This data is not high, the two companies of the company's website is very popular, the contribution of the sales performance of natural more can not talk about.

China Securities newspaper reporter in the identity of the customer in Canton Bai buy goods online, and to take the reason for the purchase of the network Business department. From its customer purchase information system to understand that in the press orders and to the business Department of the two-hour period, the Canton Bai only increased the purchase of another single business.

Su Ning, gome daily average IP traffic is 340,000 and 180,000, respectively, compared to most net retail enterprises, both Web site traffic has reached a higher level. But the industry is focused on its ability to translate into sales performance.

Suning has claimed that 2011 sales to ensure the realization of 5 billion yuan, and strive to break through 8 billion yuan, and 2012-year goal to reach 30 billion yuan, in recent years, the electric business industry well-deserved black Horse.

But analysts said sales could be grossly exaggerated. The query pointed out that, if the site PV browse volume and the industry more recognized conversion rate calculation, Suning easy to purchase each single sales need to reach more than 10,000 yuan, in order to be with the company billions of total revenue matching, and this is not in line with the actual situation.

Massive investment in hidden crises

In the huge industry prospects temptation, Suning appliances (002024, shares bar), Gome, Guang Hundred shares, Yintai shares, Tianhong shopping malls (002419, shares bar) and other traditional retail, chain enterprises have entered the field of electric business, and have increased capital investment plans.

It is understood that one of the retail giants of the Broad Hundred shares in 2009 began to study the electricity business and online platform to try. Company chief Operating Officer Shangyan April 2011 High-profile announced that the establishment of an independent E-commerce company operating Web site, the formal test of hydro business. People familiar with the matter said that, on the basis of 30 million yuan in the early stage, Guang Hundred is planning to increase capital investment, select some of the market-popular product line through the mode of independent procurement distribution operation, and the company entity department stores to achieve a greater degree of separation of the joint model.

But the industry is not too optimistic, "Broad hundred shares are unlikely to have venture capital to continue to provide funds, the probability of success in the field of E-commerce is very small." ”

Lyapunov, a representative of the securities business, said that the company's E-commerce site is still very small sales, the impact on the company is not small, but the electric business is the direction of the future, the development of electricity business is necessary.

Coincidentally, early last year, Yintai Group and Yintai department store investment set up Yintai E-commerce branch operation of the business. Unlike the traditional model of the department store, Yintai network model is the use of proprietary platform, distribution procurement, the establishment of the year planned to achieve 800 million-1 billion yuan sales. Company CEO Liao Bin early revealed that 2011 Yintai net sales actually 600 million yuan, less than expected. He also said that the Silver Thai network in 2012 may be more than 100 million yuan Thai department store capital investment.

Shi Jiawei, a researcher of the securities retail industry in Japan, pointed out that if the electric business of department stores adopted the mode of independent procurement, it would not have much complementarity with its traditional business model. "The majority of China's traditional retail industry adopts a consortium of commercial real estate models, earning sales buckles rather than distributing profits, and has no control over commodity inventories and pricing." and online retailing is a price-supply chain model, the control of goods is very important, which is precisely the majority of traditional retail enterprises lack. ”

He analyzed that customers went to department stores to buy goods mainly in the location of their business district, as well as other product brands within the department store, rather than the department store's own brand. From the current development of traditional retailers into the electric business, it is difficult to find the joint-mode department store development of E-commerce advantages, the effect of radical capital investment fear is difficult to optimistic.

The advantages of integration are difficult to embody

It is reported that in the 2004-2010 years, China's electricity market transaction size increased by 54.5% annually. It is expected that the proportion of E-commerce in the total retail sales in 2015 years will catch up with the developed countries in the general level of 7%, by 2020 will rise to about 9%, the market size will reach 300 billion U.S. dollars and 640 billion U.S. dollars respectively. The broad industry space has laid the foundation for the traditional retail net business.

Most traditional retail enterprises say that E-commerce is in line with the trend of the development of retail enterprises, expanding online business is a strategic need. However, experts pointed out that the development of traditional retail enterprises need to combine their own characteristics, promote line on the advantages of convergence, in order to reduce risk at the same time to achieve gorgeous turn.

Guangzhou Friendship Deputy general manager Jiangguoyuan said, "Guangzhou Friendship E-commerce style will be a sound development, the site's products are mainly itself in-store products, there is no large-scale expansion of the plan." The company combines its own characteristics, mainly based on good service, to meet the needs of the original VIP customers, while the appropriate development of some new customers, so that the line under the mutual supplement. ”

Because scale, supply chain, logistics, information system is the key factor of power Company's core competitiveness, the traditional enterprise such as Suning appliance, which has such core competitiveness, will be expected to succeed in the development of the electric business. Ouyangjing, a joint securities researcher, said, "but Suning also needs a learning process, in addition to learning the Internet operating experience, conflict resolution and logistics integration will become a long-term issue." For example, online and offline channels in the commodity pricing conflict, the line of interest distribution. ”

Dongxing Securities Research Report Analysis, the joint-led traditional retail enterprises net will face compatibility issues, the network is cross-regional, and department stores are regional separatist state, which will bring great resistance and uncertainty to the development of electric business.

For the broad hundred shares and other regional department stores, deep excavation of local consumers, to develop local online channels, VIP customer maintenance, combined with the advantages of physical stores to open up electricity business or more reasonable. If you abandon their own characteristics, through the model of burning money to develop independent procurement distribution of the electric business model, without sustained financial support will be unsustainable.

Of course, the development of electric business may eventually accelerate the transformation and upgrade of traditional retail enterprises, and promote their traditional business return to proprietary distribution mode.

"Comment: Big wave after the rapid tide scouring sand"

Whether it is to Taobao as the representative of the pure E-commerce enterprises, or for the traditional retail net enterprises represented by Suning, 2012 years are extremely important year shuffling, integration and other vocabulary has become the industry consensus this year, in a round of bloodshed, who will have the hope of becoming a winner?

The development history of China's e-commerce industry can be described by leaps and bounds in four words. Data show that in the past 5 years, China's e-commerce turnover has increased by 10 times times, single 2010 E-commerce Market size reached 4 trillion yuan, the number of online shopping companies have reached more than 25,000, and 2011 market size is more than 6 trillion yuan. The rapid growth of the market at the same time, but also attracted a lot of capital investment, including the traditional retail has net, emerging from suning easy to buy and other online sales of large-scale enterprises.

In the 90 's, America's retail industry began to be information-based, and after a massive foray into e-commerce, currently showing a pure electric business and traditional retail electric business enterprises coexist situation, the most favorite of the top ten shopping websites in the United States more than half of the traditional enterprises, the two camps and the Amazon and Wal-Mart respectively for the representative.

Looking back at China, into the 2012, Jingdong Mall faced with refinancing of the urgent, some group purchase website bankruptcy, business website stop advertising and so on, all indicate that the industry is undergoing great changes, quite "tide Amoy" trend, can not adhere to the end of the enterprise will eventually be out, and China's "Amazon" and "Wal-Mart" Will stand out in the near future.

As the world's largest internet shopping retailer, Amazon has customers in more than 200 countries, with the largest sales of bookstores and more than 4 million other commodities. In fact, before 2002, Amazon suffered huge losses in most years, and by 2011 the company had achieved sales of $48.1 billion trillion, earning $631 million. Therefore, the current loss is not the crux of the problem, the key is whether the supply chain, logistics, information systems and other advantages. There are forecasts that, compared with the Amazon, with the increasing user size and other factors, Taobao, Jingdong Mall and other domestic pure electric power companies will be expected to enter the profit status.

And the traditional retail net is another big trend of the electric business industry, according to the existing scale of the retail market, the traditional enterprise network sales in the future occupy the majority of the total electricity quotient will be a large probability event. Retail enterprises in the upstream supplier resources, brand resources and customer dependence, physical stores, logistics and distribution support and other aspects of the accumulation of a large number of advantages, NET will be rapid development, suning appliances, such as network sales of enterprises in the explosive growth is supporting. Of course, who can be faster integration line offline, break the mode of conflict, occupy the opportunity, who may become the last king.

You're out of here, you're out. We have reason to believe that, after the elimination, integration, whether it is a pure electric business or net traditional enterprises, can integrate the advantages of resources will eventually survive, the overall show similar to Europe and the United States "dual-track development" situation, when China's "Amazon" and "Wal-Mart" Will surface.