Guangzhou Friendship: China Gold Shop has great potential

Events: Guangzhou Friendship is located in Guangzhou zhujiang New Town, 5th Zhujiang West Road, Guangzhou International Financial Center store opened on November 18, we conducted a field survey on November 26. Investment points The new store is located in Guangzhou International Financial Center, the first to five floors, the underground negative one layer and negative one mezzanine podium shopping malls, the total construction area of 44,709 21 square meters.　　Guangzhou International Financial Center (Guangzhou West Tower), the total construction area of 450,000 square meters, building a total height of 437.5 meters, is China's third high-rise. We believe that the Guangzhou friendship Gold Shop is very advantageous position, the future will become a more prominent growth point. East Tap Mun, West Tower, Zhujiang new City Underground mall connectivity completed, will form the Pearl River New Town core Business Circle, the west tower in the circle of the position of prominent.　　In the long run, the country's gold shop is expected to reach and exceed the east-central business level. According to the company, November 18 since the opening of sales in line with expectations, the Asian Games on the Pearl River New Town, the popularity of a significant band flourishing.　　At present, there are two main problems: first, the atmosphere of the business circle still needs time to nurture, which depends mainly on the main commercial properties such as the process of investment and surrounding the completion of the package; To maintain the 2010 and 2011 earnings per share of 0.95 yuan and 1.15 yuan forecast, taking into account the country's Gold shop 2012 growth rate is expected to increase significantly, the 2012 forecast to 1.51 yuan per share. Referring to the current valuation level of department stores, combined with our valuation table for the 2011 investment strategy in the commercial retail industry, we can give the company 25-30 times the 2011-year dynamic P/E ratio, corresponding to the target price range of 28.75-34.5 yuan, maintaining a "cautious recommendation" rating.