Guizhou Maotai Future earnings will continue to grow steadily (figure)

The increase in the consumption tax and cost of investment points resulted in the company's two consecutive quarterly net profit growth significantly lower than the income growth, although 2010-year results still have the possibility of release.　　As the likelihood of a sharp rise in product prices decreases, the company's future growth will slow.　　The company is expected to return 2010-2012 earnings per share of 5.48 yuan, 7.04 yuan and 8.89 yuan, to give "buy" investment rating.　　Risk tip: Maotai production and Price is lower than expected. Two consecutive quarterly results lower than expected in Guizhou Maotai (600519) last year four quarter to achieve operating income of 1.863 billion yuan, growth of 6.13% per cent, the parent company's net profit of 525 million yuan, down 19.74%.　　2010 The first quarter of the company to achieve revenue growth of 20.99%, net profit year-on-year growth of 4%, net profit growth fell to a new low. The increase in consumption taxes and fees resulted in a significantly lower net profit growth than income growth. In the first quarter of 2010, the company's sales tax and the increase of 130% year-on-year, the large increase in taxes is mainly the result of the strict imposition of excise tax. The three cost rates increased by 0.62% per cent year-on-year, to 13.43%, the company's costs are mainly due to the increase in fixed assets and storage of liquor, the loss of volatile, staff wages and greening and other reasons.　　2009 Cost and sales management costs increased by 400 million, including workers ' wages increased by more than 200 million, depreciation increased by 40 million, volatile loss of more than 10 million. 2010-year performance can be released by the release of cash can significantly improve business performance. At a time when performance is below market expectations, companies have recorded record highs in accounts and inventories. At the end of the first quarter of 2010, the account remained at 3.062 billion per cent, at 100.72% of sales revenue, significantly higher than in 2009 (73.4%) and 2008 (65.2%). Company in the first quarter of the last two years, the average ratio of the receipts and sales revenue of 69.3%, in order to calculate the company's first quarter of the reasonable received account for 2.11 billion yuan, that is, 950 million yuan in excess of advance accounts can be cashed as sales revenue.　　According to the first quarter sales profit margin of 41.9%, can increase net profit of 398 million yuan, corresponding contribution per share income of 0.42 yuan. The turnover of management staff has been completed. With the completion of the management transition, the company 2010 should embark on a normal profit track. The relative stability of the management is conducive to the continued soundness of the company's operations, reduce volatility, the company's low alcohol market influence weak situation is expected to gradually improve.　　In addition, the company is trying to communicate with the National Tax department to reduce the consumption tax problem. Future growth may fall future Maotai performance mainly depends on three factors: 1 strengthen management, reduce costs, 2 increase sales, increase market share, 3 directly increase the factory price. Company leaders said that strengthening management and reducing costs will be the way to continue to go in the future. That is, refined management and process management will continue to advance;is a double-edged sword, but increasing sales is the safest and most stable way.　　That is to increase consumer groups, expand consumption. According to the company's 250,000 tons of construction planning, that is, 2006-2010 annual investment in the construction of 2000 tons of wine production capacity, that is, Maotai one to five phase of the project. From 2007-2011 to 2000 tons of new production capacity, the first batch of new capacity is expected to start sales in 2011. Consider retention base wine for the year of wine production and volatile loss, according to retained 20%, loss of 5% of the proportion to calculate, that is, 2000 tons of wine increased by 5 years after the actual increase in production of about 1500 tons used as a disk hook, and further blending the finished product. Maotai is expected to total factory volume in 2010 10,000 tons, 2012 years after the annual increase of 1500 tons.　　At the same time, considering the increase in prices, aging wine structure and other factors, the 2011-2013 Maotai sales income is expected to reach an average annual growth rate of 25%. We believe that in recent years Maotai will be a small volume and to improve the factory prices and terminal prices to reduce the main price, the possibility of a substantial increase in prices. It is expected that the company's annual growth rate of nearly three years can still reach more than 20%, but below the 2006-2008 growth rate.　　Market performance has fully reflected the company's business performance in recent years of slowing expectations. Earnings forecasts and ratings are expected to achieve 5.48 yuan per share, 7.04 yuan and 8.89 yuan in 2010, 2011 and 2012, with a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, 24.4% and 26.3%. If you take into account the issue of the release of excess cash from the company, according to the average ratio of 69.3% in the first quarter of the last two years, the earnings per share can be increased from 5.48 to 5.90 yuan. The company's current valuation level is low, and in recent years the slowdown in operating performance has been digested by the market, giving the "buy" investment rating. (Century Securities Research Institute Liang) Report date 2010 profit forecast of the research institution May 31 Securities recommendation 5. 99 Yuan May 31 Merchants Securities strongly recommended 5. 66 Yuan May 10 Ping An securities recommendation 5. 68 Yuan