Guizhou Maotai performance is lower than expected four quarters to stay foreshadowing

Guizhou Maotai (600519) three quarterly bulletin let many investors surprise, the company's performance is not as beautiful as expected. But the company's book shows that at the end of the three quarter, as high as 3.26 billion yuan in advance accounts, product sales can not hide the results.　　Some institutions believe that the real business of Guizhou Maotai continued to rise and announced that the performance is not as expected, which means that the company's future performance growth will be larger, four quarters or ushered in a burst of growth. Guizhou Maotai Three quarterly data show that January-September, Guizhou Maotai to achieve sales revenue 9.3 billion, an increase of 19%, net profit of 4.17 billion, year-on-year growth of 10%; basic earnings per share 4.42 yuan.　　Revenue and profit rose 21% and 8% respectively in the third quarter. Guo Xin Securities analyst Huangmao that Guizhou Maotai three quarter results below market expectations, mainly due to the company's earnings management, the actual operation of stability. At the end of the three quarter, the company received 3.26 billion yuan in advance, which increased 1.3 billion from the end of the second quarter. Meanwhile, the single quarter's business tax rate soared to 20%. But if the advance account is restored, the real income in the three quarter increases by 37%, while the actual business tax rate is only 14%.　　Given the large amount of prepayments, it is estimated that earnings per share in the first three quarters of this year actually grew by 41%. Analysis of the industry, in view of the liquor industry at present a high degree of prosperity, the future sales of Maotai is expected to continue to maintain a stable growth.　　It is reported that 53 degrees Maotai current market terminal retail price close to 1000 yuan, and the ex-factory prices are still 499 yuan, the gap between the ex-factory price and retail prices reached the largest, the increase in space, the company may be at the end of this year or early next year to raise prices, this will continue to At the same time, Guizhou Moutai began construction in 2006, "Eleven-Five" Million ton Maotai Project 1 Phase 2000 tons of Maotai will enter the release period next year, the future Maotai production capacity will increase by 2000 tons each year, which provides a guarantee for the sustained growth of sales, and helps push up performance growth. It believes the company may have its own consideration for this year's performance. According to the current performance of the release rate, the end of this year will be close to 6 billion yuan, the next year will be more than 10 billion yuan.