Half-hour observation: healthy growth is critical

Similarly, Frank Gong, chief economist at JPMorgan's Greater China region, and Professor Song guoqing of Peking University's China Economic Research Center. Frank Gong said recently that deflation is a more prominent risk for China both in the near and medium term, with CPI expected to fall by 0.5% in the year to 2009, and two more 27-point cuts this year. Professor Song guoqing that, as early as October 2008 or so, our country has entered deflation, and is a serious deflation.　　They agree that the current economic policy cannot be changed because of worries about inflation. Fred Six: "If at this time, the premature adjustment of policy, from the prevention of deflation and recession into anti inflation, then I think it will produce very unfortunate results." Hu finally told us that since last year, China has launched a series of macroeconomic stimulus policies, including the central bank to cut interest rates, increase the money supply and so on, but in the implementation of these policies, but also pay attention to prevent because credit policy is too loose, leading to large sums of money into the stock market and real estate We need to be concerned about not because of these loose policies, in particular, a lot of liquidity does not lead to a potential, I say, a stock market or a housing bubble, before the economy, the real economic recovery, has not been fully entrenched, before many of our corporate profits have improved dramatically. This I think is a risk, we should pay attention to. "Andy Xie: The current monetary policy will lead to higher inflation on the one hand, the international financial crisis has led to inadequate external demand, weak growth, on the other hand, positive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy has shown a pulling role." Under the influence of these two forces, the current Chinese economy has a complex face, CPI, PPI continued to decline and capital goods, commodity prices accompanied by higher.　　It also gives the economic circles a different voice on how to judge the next trend of macro-economy, and let's listen to another view. 2008, the financial crisis swept the world, China's economy is also facing unprecedented challenges, in order to successfully withstand the crisis, China's macro-control policy made a major adjustment, the central bank in December 2008 to determine the implementation of a "moderately loose monetary policy", such a reference in the history of China's macro-control is still the And looking at the central bank's monetary policy memorabilia this year, it is true that the central bank did not use traditional monetary policy instruments such as interest rates and reserve requirements; the only move was to let go of the money faucet. And from the first quarter of the published economic data, it appears that the positive changes in national economic performance are obvious.　　The industry generally believes that the Chinese economy has been able to perform well, the implementation of moderately easy monetary policy brought about by the liquidity. Tu Guangshao Vice-Chairman: "It should be said that our current economy in Shanghai is beginning to show some good trends, and we feel that this is also due to a moderately loose monetary policy." "As the financial tsunami caused the global credit crunch and the liquidity of financial markets suddenly dried up, the world's central banks have agreed to relax their goodsCurrency policy action, and the trend is increasing, the tsunami center of the United States to release the market liquidity, March 19, 2009, the United States is also a printing machine, announced in the next few months to buy 300 billion U.S. dollars in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds and up to 1.25 trillion U.S. dollars "two-room" issue of mortgage-backed securities, Almost at the same time, central banks in Japan, Germany and Britain have also bought bonds and increased the money supply in financial markets. The ECB's base currency rose 22.9% in the first quarter of this year, with many economists thinking that a large increase in the dollar, non-US dollar money supply and associated liquidity would increase the risk of inflation and asset price bubbles.　　Prof Stiglitz, a professor at Columbia University and Nobel laureate in economics, gave his opinion to reporters. "As long as there is a lot of credit in a short time, if the credit is not well allocated, there is always a risk that it is hard to control the potential risk," Stiglitz said. In China, in addition to sharp interest rate cuts, China has also instructed commercial banks to issue large amounts of loans. The central bank data show that in the 1 quarter of 2009, the renminbi new loans amounted to 4.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2 trillion. In the first 4 months of this year, new loans were up to 5.2 trillion yuan, more than the year's credit plan. And now the money growth rate has been more than 25%.　　In this respect, many economists pointed out that the possible inflationary pressure should be prevented. Xu Xiaonian: "I think it is not a moderately loose monetary policy, it is a very loose monetary policy." "Ha:" 25.5% of the money growth rate and 3.6% of private GDP growth, the difference is too big, I think it is necessary to do some fine-tuning. "The China Monetary Policy executive Report, released by the PBoC in the first quarter of 2009, also noted that aggressive monetary policy in the major economies prompted further easing of global monetary conditions, saying that" if the central bank fails to recover huge amounts of liquidity in time for the recovery, it could again bury the asset bubble and inflation risks. " "China's consumer price index has been negative since February this year, but the year-on-year increase in CPI will return positive after the price-cutting factor disappears," said economist Andy Xie. After this, with the increase in the price of energy and raw materials and the steady decline of the global economy, with the stimulus of liquidity flooding, the gradual expansion of the CPI in China is likely to evolve into a cost-driven inflation based on input mode.　　The impact on prices of staggering bank loans, rampant liquidity and excessive lending should be heeded and taken early precautions. Andy Xie: "I think China's monetary policy should be, now that it's tightened, if it's a 25% increase in money, I think it's possible to have a few months, but for a year or more, that's the inevitable consequence of higher inflation, so in terms of China's monetary policy, It should be prudent to put a large amount of money. "Mundell: China needsMore expansionary monetary policy after the rapid expansion of credit scale, can we timely receive the supply of funds to prevent the emergence of a new round of asset bubbles and inflation? Become the focus of the economic circles. In the face of macroeconomic performance, just a few economists have different judgments, which is precisely proof that the current Chinese economy is in a delicate situation, both risks and opportunities can not be ignored.　　We also interviewed the famous economist and Nobel laureate Mundell to hear the analysis of the father of the euro. Data released this morning by the National Bureau of Statistics show that the May CPI index fell 1.4%, in fact, as early as the May economic data is about to be released, there are many institutions forecast, CPI, PPI Two index will still appear both decline, perennial focus on the Chinese economy Nobel laureate-　　Mundell argues that there is no need to worry about the slide in data. Winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, Robert Mundell: While the rest of the world is facing huge economic retrograde pressures, I don't think it's an unexpected decline in the data, which initially looks like a lot of China's economic data should rise sharply, but I don't think that many people would expect this ( As the data rebound continues, China's economy has grown strongly from the past, running to the downside of the present, China is unlikely to flee the global economic downturn, but of course, I say so does not mean that the Chinese economy has come to a negative, production decline, I said in the general sense of China's economic growth rate slowed, In stark contrast to previous strong growth.　　"In the 2009, China's CPI index continued to decline, while the money supply is increasing, so in the recent period of time, many economists worry that such a large amount of liquidity will be the next operation of the Chinese economy to bury the curse of inflation, which Mundell also disagree." Robert Mundell: "China needs more expansionary monetary policy, and in order to achieve this, the Fed and the people's bank need to increase the amount of money they buy, often by buying more things, such as bonds, or by adjusting statutory reserves." "Facing deflation and worrying about inflationary pressures, how should China's macroeconomic policies be regulated?"　　In this respect, Mundell put forward his own opinion. Robert Mundell: "We should prevent deflation, one of the ways to pass a more expansionary monetary policy is to stop buying too much of US Treasuries and China should not invest in US Treasuries, because the Chinese need to keep their money and keep the renminbi at home, they need money to spend, they need to maintain their economies and leave their money in China, Let the Chinese consume a little more, the Chinese consume more, the Chinese economy will be better, thus offsetting the effect of deflation, and pulling the price level back to the growth rate of 2% or 3% per annum. "In fact, the world economy is also facing the dilemma of controlling inflation or deflation, and the global real economy is still in a slump, but variousThe price of assets has soared sharply, and Mundell has analyzed this anomaly. Robert Mundell: "Obviously, prices are rising, before they were down, two years ago, world oil prices were about 60 to 70 dollars a barrel, up to nearly 150 dollars a barrel, and now prices are staggering, largely because the Fed tightened monetary policy last summer, Let the dollar appreciate, the dollar is relative to other than the renminbi appreciation, because at that time, the renminbi fixed, maintained at 6.8:1 level, the dollar price rises, so the price of raw materials, oil prices fell, resulting in deflation, now, the dollar depreciation, so other prices rebound, so say, Oil prices are directly related to the dollar, when the dollar falls, oil prices rise, other prices rise, and when the dollar appreciates, other prices fall, and everything depends on the Fed's monetary policy. "Mundell argues that the depreciation of the dollar is the leading cause of the current international market and the rise in commodity prices such as metals, and this is not a sign that the international economy has improved or bottomed out.　　But for the current bewildering economic situation and the trend of the world economy in the coming period, Mundell has made his own predictions. Robert Mundell: "I think the world economy is bottoming out, down to the bottom, and it's going to bottom, and I think that even if it's not yet bottomed out, it will hit bottom in the next few months, followed by a very slow economic recovery." "Half an hour observation: the healthy growth rate is crucial in front of the show, we see that the current economic situation in China, although there are some signs of warming, but the overall economy is still grim."　　The narrowing of the CPI and PPI declines suggests that deflationary pressures are shrinking, and the recent "sudden boom" in commodities and the good housing market have meant that the risk of inflation is growing and deserves high attention. In fact, in our view, deflation and inflation are a process that is not completely separate.　　In fact, in our world, there has always been inflation and deflation in any crisis, and the Chinese economy has been experiencing the cycle of inflation and deflation in the past. In our view, the domestic economic growth rate is the key to the future, the Chinese economy if the recovery is too fast, it is not necessarily a good thing, in excess of liquidity, from deflation to inflation may be very fast. What we want is a sound economy, a slump that is not conducive to long-term development.