Healthy inflation is a worry

Market participants expect greater stability in domestic macroeconomic operations in 2011, but inflation is still likely to bring greater divergence in economic forecasts in certain periods. The economy is running steady in November, the domestic PMI index was 55.2%, further higher than October, and sustained growth for four consecutive months. From the increase of industrial value, this index stabilized in July this year, although there are some fluctuations, but the volatility is not large.　　The economic data show that at least from the current stage, the probability of stabilising the domestic economy is very high. Looking forward to 2011, the stability of domestic macro-economic operation is expected to increase markedly this year.　　There are two reasons for this judgment: first, the probability of the external economic stability is greater; the second is that many negative factors affecting the domestic economy have been resolved to some extent this year. From an external economy, the chances of a steady and slow recovery in the US economy are high. Huatai Securities pointed out that, from the economic leading indicators, the U.S. economic leading indicators of growth began to steadily rebound. The US ISM index fell after a year-on-year growth of 68.9% per cent in December 2009, to 3.1% per cent year-on-year, and the ISM's leading indicator new orders/inventories have bottomed out in September, with a year-on-year upward trend in October.　　Combined with the recent growth of the ISM and other leading indicators to judge, the U.S. economic lead indicators year-on-year growth is close to the bottom, within three months will rebound. From the domestic perspective, the national Gold Securities pointed out that the early face of the real estate bubble, excessive credit, bank non-performing assets and other risks, the withdrawal of the macro-economic key words, credit tightening, real estate control, policy withdrawal and other driving macroeconomic growth, which also makes the economic and long-term operational risk has been initially controlled　　In the first year of the Twelve-Five plan, the industrial upgrading, the development of new industries and the strategic adjustment of economic structure will push the economy into another round of development cycle. Inflation or the biggest disturbance factor although the expectation of the overall stability of domestic economic operation is very strong, it is not without worries, inflation will become the important disturbance factor of the 2011 economy. Because the current round of inflation is not caused by overheating, the unpredictability of commodity and weather factors will determine that once inflation is out of control, the market's judgment on the economic outlook will change with the advent of further austerity measures.　　Although the resulting divergence may be temporary, it should not overlook its huge impact on capital markets next year. Many analysts have expressed a relatively cautious view of the inflation situation next year. Hongyuan Securities pointed out that the inflation situation in 2011 could be quite grim and could present a high inflation rate. The forecast of inflation in 2011 is more difficult because of the adjustment of CPI Statistic Index, the reform of resource and tax, the exogenous factors of income distribution reform. The CPI level is expected to reach 4% in 2011, with a full-year high of 5% per cent. On the distribution, the first half of the inflation situation is even more serious, next year harvest harvest will become an important watershed in the price situation. If there are harvest failures,There will be stagflation for half a year.