High-level "bumpy" car speeding forward

Last week, the market high volatility, Shen million 23 one-tier industry plate rose more and less. Benefiting from the high volume of sales, the industry accelerated recovery, car stocks outstanding performance, shen million delivery equipment index to 9.99% of the increase ranked first. Analysts said China's economic stability is clear, but to return to a steady growth trajectory, it is necessary to reduce external dependence, focusing on domestic demand.　　The domestic demand-oriented industry, which is represented by automobiles and retailing, is still worth paying attention to. Market shock car accelerated last week, the market shocks intensified, the Shanghai Composite Index Week 31 to the next 3,000 points near.　　In the "June new loans 1.53 trillion yuan" news support, the stock index only to pick up the rally, and in Friday to create 3140.04 points in the current round of the market. Industry sector overall performance is good. SYWG 23 First-tier industry indices only a small decline in real estate and financial services last week, but only 0.86% and 0.65%.　　The rising industry index, the biggest increase in delivery equipment, 9.99%, household appliances followed by a gain of 9.34%, ferrous Metals ranked third, up 8.37%. The good performance of the delivery equipment index is mainly driven by automobile stocks.　　In the constituent stocks, Jiangling Motor weekly rose to 22.52%, ranked first, followed by the Chinese-domain cars, FAW cars and Shanghai cars, rose to 17.82%, 17.77% and 17.5% respectively. The low season does not see the amount of profit in the small displacement model purchase tax reduction and the car to the countryside, and other policies stimulated by the second half of 2008, delayed market demand and the 2009 demand for the current period of centralized release. As the industry trend in the 2009 to judge the general tendency to conservative, product supply relative to market demand shortages, the first quarter of the industry has a rare phenomenon of sales greater than production. Into the two quarter, car sales continue to go ahead.　　According to the latest statistics of the National Passenger Car Association, June sedan sales in 630,000 vehicles, an increase of 45%, sales and growth rate of the first half of a single month new highs. The organization Monetta to July beginning of the off-season sales of the judgment is that there is a high probability of off-season. Analysts said the apparent decline in off-season sales in the past 2004 and 2008 years was a performance of the overall market in the downturn, while other annual off-season sales remained largely consistent with the previous two-quarter sales. In terms of inventory, both 2004 and 2008 were at record peak highs, while at present record lows, manufacturers can use the off-season to increase shipments, back to the early stage of the dealer chain Lower inventory.　　At the same time, the current price rhythm also shows that consumer demand is still not showing signs of slowing down, the price trend shows that the current demand relative to supply is the strongest in recent years, demand in the macro-consumer environment is still good in the context of a short period of obvious decline in the probability is not. Wanguo analyst Kang said that 5 June has been clearly visible in the proportion of high displacement models, June to the production of high-end cars mainly manufacturers sales chain growth significantly. such as Guangzhou Toyota growth 44%, Guangzhou HondaThe chain grew 13%. The increase in the proportion of the medium and high displacement models is mainly due to the recovery of the demand of the first-tier cities (south China, Jiangsu and Zhejiang).　　As a result of product structure shift, in the first half of the "increase" on the basis of the second half of the industry profitability is expected to increase significantly. In the domestic demand-oriented industry, "tapping" the initial economic stability of the economy, in addition to the government investment, the end of the needs of the start-up should not be overlooked. Credit Securities analyst Zhou Binglin that terminal demand is based on whether the direct provision of human "subjective utility" (Utilities), it is clear that the automotive, real estate, home appliances have the basic characteristics of terminal requirements; In addition, the disappearance of congestion, the shortening of travel time, the improvement of the environment of the platform, the improvement of drinking water quality, The stability of the electricity environment and so on, the role of people to provide utility is basically similar, analysts use "unproductive infrastructure" to cover the related products. Analysts believe that China has a large population, a relatively stable savings rate, a broad economic strategy and a huge space for unproductive infrastructure construction.　　"China's domestic demand is unfathomable". Specific to the industry, analysts pointed out that in addition to the performance of the real estate, automobiles, the necessary consumer goods are also noteworthy, department stores and medicine has the brunt. On the one hand, the CPI bottoming out will improve the profitability of the retail enterprises of the necessary consumer goods, consumption to maintain a steady growth in the case, the price rebound makes the performance of retail companies improve profitability; On the other hand, medical products are full of rigid consumer goods, under the impetus of the deepening of health reform, The status of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in the national economy will be significantly improved.