Hot Market Switch to Theme

The author of the Galactic Securities Shanghai headquarters in Chengde recently, the Shanghai and Shenzhen market, although in the Friday again high innovation, but by a variety of factors affecting the shock obviously intensified. By the Chinese construction of the IPO dragged down, the market group of blue-chip groups appear to adjust, and the subject stock has successfully received the rise "baton" the recent market trends by macroeconomic policies and stock market policy has a great impact: the cause of the Tuesday shock is the central bank through the open market to withdraw more than billions of Thursday early release of the June completely unexpected bank credit data, and then stimulate the market again high innovation; yesterday on the weekend announced China's construction more than 40 billion financing start-up under the influence of large area of blue chip adjustment, and led to a fall in the index. The author thinks that after Premier Wen Jiabao again insisted on the loose monetary policy, the short-term shift of monetary policy has no need to worry, and there is no substantial change in the pattern of market liquidity flooding. But because the valuation is close to the reasonable limit, the management must be suppressed to the market froth tendency, therefore the concussion of the late market will also aggravate, the hot spot also will have the remarkable change.　　The investor should evade the possible risk by the principle of safety supremacy, catch the reasonable fighter plane. A good macro-turn to cause liquidity worries according to June trade figures released last week, exports and imports narrowed sharply year-on-year, with a notable increase of 4.5% and 2.2% in the chain. As a result, macroeconomic growth in the three-horse recovery of the weakest import and export has seen a good recovery momentum, the second half will be improved. and real estate investment rebounded strongly, June achieved positive growth of 11.4%, consumption growth momentum. Important figures such as macroeconomic GDP are expected to be released this week, with GDP growth approaching 8% per cent year-on-year.　　So macroeconomic fundamentals are expected to remain above expectations. But a good rebound in macroeconomic data raises concerns about whether positive fiscal policy and monetary policy need to change, from the recent resurgence of house prices and the flood of liquidity in the stock market, positive fiscal policy and monetary policy do have some side effects, but in view of Premier Wen's 5-time insistence on easing monetary policy in 40 days,　　So there is no big concern about the stock market's major background, and the overall liquidity glut is not expected to change. China's construction IPO to promote blue-chip adjustment However, the trend of the stock market is not fully correlated with monetary policy. We have recently noticed that management has taken steps to avoid or mitigate the drawbacks of excess liquidity in the stock market: Last week, the CBRC announced the "notice on further strengthening the investment management of personal finance business of commercial banks", which expressly prohibits "bank financing funds in any form to invest in two-tier market stocks or their related securities investment funds,　　and unlisted shares of the company and the Non-public offering or transaction of listed companies ", showing the general level of the current stock price is not recognized, and the rapid distribution of Chinese architecture reflects the increase in market chip supply to ease the pressure on the stock markets. According to the experience in the stock market history, the overall performance of the market before the large stock issue is more cautious, the 2006 before the ICBC issued the stock market consolidation nearly one months is the empirical。 China's construction has been announced to raise capital of more than 43 billion, the capital demand is higher than most IPOs, the market in front of them for granted.　　In addition, from the capital flow, large-scale institutions such as funds before the issuance of large organizations, such as the fund will often take a certain position, the adjustment of the Friday and this Monday can be considered to have started the position. But the regulation of large institutions is related to the pace of Chinese construction, so this behavior is likely to lead to more rapid adjustment or turbulence in the market.　　Therefore, we are not optimistic about the performance of the index this week, the market is expected this week or will be next to the 20th average position, at 3,000 points of strong support. Short-term theme stocks are expected to "baton" due to large institutions of the warehouse focus on the blue chip sector, so the blue chip compression probability is greater.　　And in the blue chip under pressure at the same time, suggested focus on the subject plate. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 2.13% per cent last week, down 1.09% in Monday, while the SME composite was up 3.8% per cent and 0.96% in Monday. Pre-market hot insurance, automobiles, etc., Coal (energy), banks, non-ferrous metals and other blue-chip plate showed obvious signs of adjustment, indicating that the main plate to the blue chip index to pull the market to an ending. Of course, we note that the overall valuation of blue chips is still very reasonable, including similar to China CRCC (601186) and other shares did not see speculation, the overall reduction of space is limited, but short-term profit is more difficult. and the board after 2 months after the adjustment in 6 trading days 5 degrees to create a new high, it can be judged, the market hot switching process has been completed, investors should be in the operation of transformation and adjustment.　　In addition to the SME stock, Disney (expo), regional development, venture capital and many other investment themes exist trading opportunities. The current market overall price-earnings ratio is roughly 26 times times, of which blue chips are 23 times times, the corresponding subject shares 28 times times. The author thinks blue-chip 25 times times, subject stock 30 times times should be the highest limit of reasonable valuation, so the short term the continued strength of the subject stocks will soon generate bubbles, this and 1664 points when the theme of the stock rebound in a very different nature.　　Therefore, the operation must be a rapid positioning to lighten up, set the stop point of treatment. At the same time, investors should also pay attention to management control of the bubble signal. Last week's listing of two new stock gains have been far away from the value of the market, although the repression is still strong, which will not facilitate the smooth launch of the gem, so management to take measures to curb speculative speculation, and this is precisely the current market the biggest risk. Once the new shares leap back to value, market adjustment will inevitably.