Hot money betting on economic recovery the Bank system balances again flush 200 billion

The momentum of hot money and speculative inflows seems to be increasing.　　In Friday, when the Hong Kong exchange reached another 7.7500 limit on the strong convertibility guarantee, the HKMA sold HK $3.488 billion in New York, and the balance of the banking system today is expected to increase to HK $197.961 billion. Analysts point out that this round of hot money return is neither a set-factor stimulus, nor the background of 2007-2008 years of unilateral appreciation of the renminbi, so bullish on the mainland and Hong Kong economic recovery is to attract hot money to enter the main reason.　　Some experts also predicted that hot money inflows or helped push the renminbi to a new round of appreciation expectations. Bullish on China's economic recovery the balance of the banking system is an important indicator reflecting the level of interbank liquidity. As early as May, the Hong Kong dollar hit the strong side of the exchange guarantee level against the United States dollar, which had reached a record high of HK $250 billion.　　The HKMA intervened repeatedly and the balance of the banking system fell to below HK $200 billion. National Gold Securities researcher Fan Xianpeng said the main reasons for the inflow of capital into Hong Kong generally include the conduct of interest-bearing transactions, the expected appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar and the renminbi, and the bullish outlook on the stock market.　　But the two waves of capital inflows that have emerged since the end of last year are neither for the sake of interest, nor for the expectations of the appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar or the renminbi, but for the only convincing reason to be bullish on the economic recovery in the territory and the mainland. According to the forecasts of the national Gold securities, the influx of "hot money" to Hong Kong since September last year amounted to HK $342 billion, accounting for 50% of Hong Kong's base currency, well above the historical level, while the stock market rebounded significantly.　　The market is worried that once the money flows out, it will hit the market. Fan Xianpeng said there could be a turning point in the flow of money when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the renminbi is expected to appreciate, or the economic recovery in Hong Kong and the mainland is far below expectations. In the short term, there are three types of capital flows in Hong Kong, that is, in a short period of time the funds continue to flow, a longer period of time after the continuous inflow of funds, or future funds continue to flow out, "Fan Xianpeng predicts," We believe that the probability of continuous inflows within a short period of time is relatively small, and Hong Kong stocks are likely to face adjustment. "Or the pressure on the renminbi to appreciate, China faces the same situation. Foreign capital inflows accelerated in the two quarter as bullish asset prices rose. There is a view that the inflow of foreign funds can create pressure on the appreciation of the renminbi.　　Shanghai Certificate Investment Management Co., Ltd. researcher Zhang Zhiqiang said offshore funds will become the new engine of liquidity supply, a new wave of appreciation of the expected climax of the renminbi has arrived, the renminbi will re-enter the medium-to long-term appreciation of the track next year.　　The renminbi's median price to the US dollar was 6.8321 per cent yesterday, down 11 points from the previous session. In an interview with the Daily Economic news, Lu Commissar, chief economist of Societe Generale Capital Operations Center, said that the appreciation of the renminbi was one of the most important supporting factors in the last bull market, and that investors were keen to see it, but the real economy might not be enough to support the renminbi's appreciationRoad。　　LU, an Asia Pacific economist at Merrill Lynch, also believes that management will discourage investment funds from continuing appreciation of the renminbi. Lu Commissar suggested that management should prevent hot money too deep, too fast evacuation, should strengthen hot money monitoring.　　In the longer term, we should strengthen the reform of RMB exchange rate system, such as increasing the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and increasing the risk of short-term speculative funds. For the current inflow of funds, Lu County's judgment is that "speculative funds may not be as big as the market imagine, because also need to take into account the first quarter to the bottom of the second quarter after the fall of the rebound factor, the stock of the outstanding settlement funds in the two quarter of a large amount of settlement. ”