House prices will also cut stocks or will rise

China Venture Capital Forum site, the guests on the economic change and other hot spots to discuss. The audience listened with great gusto to the guests. Shenzhen Special Zone newspaper reporter Wu Sheng took the property market and the stock market is the most concerned about the Chinese economy two of these areas, the China Venture capital forum is being held in SZ can not avoid these two hot topics, in the closing forum,　　Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher Yixianrong and other well-known experts and scholars on the current real estate and stock market analysis and judgment, that the current property market regulation and control policy has not been exhausted, housing prices downward pressure, and the stock market around 2,700 is still a safe zone, the future of China's economy will continue to maintain high-speed growth. The reason for the rapid rise in housing prices in 2009, which has not been exhausted by the regulatory policy, is the result of the government's overly favourable credit policy, Yixianrong. "From 2008 to 2009 in just 15 months, individuals from the bank loans reached 3.5 trillion, more than the previous 15 years, a large number of bank funds injected into the market, housing prices soared." "Yixianrong that in the early days of the real estate regulation, the policy came into being, the real estate market did not adjust, but some cities more serious price speculation, land transaction prices are higher." For the new Country 10 regulation dynamics, Yixianrong more optimistic, he said: "The future of the real estate market, as long as the country 10 seriously implementation, implementation, housing prices can return to the more normal market prices, the real estate market is expected to become the driving force of China's economic growth." "After the state 10, is the government's regulatory policy exhausted?" In this respect, Yixianrong and China's real estate independent commentators have a negative attitude. Yixianrong said: "State 10 should only be part of the government's regulatory measures, but it captures the core of the current real estate market problem." "The analysis, the government of the real estate market regulation should be three steps, that is, adjust demand, adjust supply, adjust the system," now only in the credit policy to adjust the demand for housing, this is the first step, has not finished, so it can not be said that the current regulation of the bottom. "Chen, dean of the China Venture Capital Research Institute, also believes there is a bubble in the property market, and that the most serious bubble in China is Hainan and Wenzhou, while the three-tier four-line city is good." He said: "If according to intrinsic value, in the next three years, five years, ten years, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing and other land price adjustment 20% to 30% more reasonable, slowly transition, not like Hong Kong suddenly fell 70%, so the impact on the economy is relatively large." "Many experts have made it clear that prices in the future will fall. "The sledgehammer said:" From the market situation, Shenzhen Many real estate began to reduce prices, the major banks have also done a price drop in the pressure test, the lowest is the bank of China, if the house prices fell 30%, the risk of 1.12%, the best is the construction bank, even if the price of the 30%-50% "The stock market is now more suitable to invest in a year or 3,300 points China a A-share of the previous phase of the 3,500 point fell to the current 2500-point range, the state of depression, the next step in the stock market what kind of trajectory? Chen's view is relatively optimistic, he said: "According to China's macroeconomic synthesis, 3,000 to 3,500 points is a more reasonable location, now is the right time for stock investment, of course, we also have to see the field and industry." "In the forum, has never recommended people to buy shares of the Chen even give investors a specific investment strategy," if it is long-term investment, if you want to invest 6 months, under 2,700 points to buy is more safe; If you want to invest for one year, you can consider the following 3,000 points, in other words, The probability of rising from 3,000 to 3,300 or 3,500 a year is very high. "China's future economic outlook experts agree that although the property market continued to adjust, the experts are an unprecedented consensus on the future of China's economic prospects." The sledgehammer takes out a set of data, which shows that property adjustment will not affect economic development. He noted that 2009 1 to April, the house price Index fell 0.9, 1.2, 1.3, 1.1, "This 4 months, the real estate market is half dead, but logistics, steel, ships, ports, Sinotrans 18 industries have been fully recovered, that is, the recovery of macroeconomic fundamentals is walking in front of the real estate industry, It is economic growth that has driven the real estate sector, not the real estate sector that has led the economy.　　"Sun, chief economist at Nomura Securities China, said if nothing else, China will overtake Japan as the world's second-largest economy this year, if it is not an accident, and China can grow at a rate of 8% to 10% a year in the coming years, meaning that China's economy will double in size within 10. Chen agrees, saying that China's economy will continue to grow in the next 30 years, from the regional point of view needs to rely on the central, western, northeast economic growth to pull, he said: "China also has a large region with economic growth and development space, so the central government in the last year to promote the revitalization of the central rising strategy, The Western development strategy, recently restarted, including the northeast revitalization of the economic strategy, and so on, this is based on China's next 10 years, the 30 economic development. ”