Housing Blue Book of the Academy of Social Sciences: next year prices rise and fall

November 16 Morning News The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released this morning, the "housing Green book" predicts that next year's housing prices will appear first rose after the situation, land prices will be a certain degree of increase. Next year house prices first rose after the government or increase housing demand to stimulate the forecast of the trend of house prices, "housing green Book," because of loose credit policy and 2009 commodity housing sales performance, the development of enterprises generally more abundant funds, a short period of large expansion of supply or price promotion is less likely.　　Next year will appear the Spring warm autumn, the price steady quantity increases the development situation. In particular, sales were likely to slow down in the first quarter of 2010, while prices remained generally stable; the second quarter was influenced by inflationary expectations or the government's possible new policy, with a higher probability of sales rebounding, higher prices and higher development investment; third to fourth-quarter prices and sales may be stable or falling,　　Development investment rises or remains stable.　　From the perspective of investment, because the economic recovery is not stable, the economic growth of the housing market dependence is still large, so the government in the short term did not vigorously curb housing speculation policy space, even when the economic growth is lower than expected, the government may further increase housing demand stimulus. When talking about regional disparities in the housing market, the analysis of the housing Green Book shows that the volatility in the east is greater than in the Midwest.　　　　From the sales market, the growth of the first-tier cities is higher than the two or three-tier cities, and from the investment development, two or three-line cities are better than the first-tier cities. The next stage of land price or will rise monitoring show that by September 2009, the National Land market transactions are active, housing volume of 8 consecutive months of growth, 2009 years ago the cumulative turnover of three quarters for the first time exceeded the level of the previous year, and the total price of the transaction is generally higher, land transactions have been warming up new signs.　　This situation in Beijing, Tianjin, Chongqing three municipalities are more obvious.　　The Green Paper on housing predicts that there will be an increase in the area of the land market in the next stage and that land prices may rise somewhat. "As local governments pursue land revenues and hope to push local growth through real estate, and to complete land-supply plans, the next phase of land supply should be further intensified," he said.　　"In the analysis of land supply, the" Housing Green Book "gives the judgment. and correspondingly, in terms of demand, "housing green Book" that in the macro-economy, real estate policies and credit policy liberalization, development planning, a large number of local government issued a large number of preferential conditions to actively push the real estate market, the overall rebound in the background, accompanied by real estate developers optimistic market expectations and the relief of financial pressure, The ability to buy land and the desire to purchase land, the next phase of the land market demand rebound trend should be continued. (Ding from Beijing)