"Housing Green Book": Real estate operation and the trend of the housing market next year

BEIJING, November 16 (Hu Junying) China's real estate market began to enter the rapid development trend in 07, house prices rose, 08 due to the financial crisis, the housing market almost stagnant. To ease the crisis to stimulate consumption, late last year, the government launched a "package" bailout plan, the real estate market from repression to full support, by this positive factor, China's real estate market starting from March this year upward.　　On the first anniversary of the housing market bailout, on the real estate trend of the parties debated, to this, today, the Social Sciences Academy released the "Housing Green Book", trying to give the confusion of the real estate market to provide a basis. The real estate market is showing a V-type reversal situation The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences held the "Housing Green Paper" release meeting and the 2009-2010 housing situation and policy seminar, Pengfei, chief editor of China's housing Development Report, said that the macroeconomic performance of the V-type reversal, real estate in this year has formed a V-shaped Especially in the two quarter of 2009, the trend is very clear. Subsequently, some measures were taken to alleviate the problems. As for the analysis of the real estate market in 2008-2009, or 2008-quarter to 2009-three, we are based on this framework. It is well known that real estate at the end of 2007, the beginning of 2008, a turning point in property, a sharp downward adjustment. However, as a result of the global financial crisis, the domestic macro situation and economic policies have been reversed, so that the real estate in this year formed a V-type reversal trend. Especially in the two quarter of 2009, the trend is very clear.　　Subsequently, some measures were taken to alleviate the problems.　　Price: Four reason to house prices rose to enter the 09 China's housing prices as if sitting on the "roller coaster", the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Finance Institute of Gao Guanchun in the press conference on the analysis of the four reasons for the rise in house prices. Gao Guanchun introduces the problems and challenges of housing financial institutions ' support. The problems are mainly manifested in the following aspects: first, compared with the slow effect of the 2008-year liquidity contraction on the decline in house prices, the liquidity that was released in 2009 pushed up the prices too fast. Second, the influx of loans into the housing sector since 2009 has supported speculative housing development and consumption rather than authentic housing development and consumption. Third, the risk relaxation means limited.　　Four, the policy of housing finance has not played an effective supporting role. Land Price: Still want to rise Shanghai Beijing-Hangzhou, the potential of land prices in the first three China's Housing Development Report (2009-2010).　　The report pointed out that China's land prices will continue to improve, the Shanghai-Hangzhou land value potential of the top three.　　The Green book on housing points out that monitoring shows that by September 2009, the National Land market transactions are active, housing use volume of 8 consecutive months of growth, 2009 years before the cumulative turnover of three quarters for the first time exceeded the level of the previous year, and the total price of the transaction is generally higher, land transactions have been warming up new signs. "Housing Green Book" forecast, in the macro-economy, real estate policies and credit policy liberalization, development planning bigQuantity launches, the local government issued a large number of preferential conditions for positive push, the real estate market, the overall rebound in the background, with the real estate developers optimistic market expectations and the relief of financial pressure, the ability to buy land and the desire to increase the situation, the next phase of the market demand for recovery should be renewed Housing Credit: Overall interest rates remain low four quarter or have fine-tuning the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences today released the Green Paper "China Housing Development Report (2009-2010)" that the second half of 2009 to 2010 housing financial markets will not continue the first half of the crazy upward trend, showing a moderate upward trend. But the housing indirect financial market, that is, the strong position of credit markets relative to the direct housing financial market will continue, but the structure ratio may fall.　　And it is expected to conduct structural fine-tuning in the four quarter of 09. Property market preferential policy: will not change too much should moderate fine-tuning Chinese Academy of Social Sciences today released the Green Paper "China Housing Development Report (2009-2010)". Pengfei, the chief editor of the report, said that in the next year, the economy would need real estate. Therefore, the state-related real estate policies, especially preferential policies will not be much changed.　　Pengfei proposal: Preferential policy direction unchanged, at the same time do moderate fine-tuning, the most important is strict supervision. On the forecast of the property market next year, Pengfei pointed out that a basic conclusion is that the spring warm autumn, concussion growth, the economy will continue to recover, the role of housing investment increased.　　The scale of urbanization will be peak, and the urbanization region growth is relatively balanced. About the Guarantee Room: 2010 Housing regulation increases the proportion of the housing "green Book" for the 2010 housing Regulation gave detailed policy recommendations. It is pointed out that the main task of housing market regulation in the 2010 is to promote stable, healthy and rapid development of macroeconomic and housing economy. The policy objective is "increasing price stability", which is summarized as follows: "Increase sales, enlarge investment, adjust structure, stabilize price".　　That is, the price of basic stability, investment and development and sales of steady growth, small-scale, protection of the proportion of housing significantly increased. Jiang Shemei introduced, see Guangzhou, Shanghai, Ningbo, Beijing, the completion of the small housing, and these cities are relatively high housing prices, which reflects the reverse of the supply of affordable housing to a certain extent to curb the rise in housing prices. In addition, there are some problems in our country's housing security system, and the system needs to be perfected. For example, the form of housing security is relatively single, affordable housing, price-limit, low-cost rental to enjoy every affordable shelter must have threshold income, and the gap between the threshold income is also relatively large.　　This creates a sandwich layer that cannot be met through these safeguards policies, so the sandwich layer is also a big problem. Next year's property market trend: Will be "spring warm autumn price stability increase" Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released today housing Green Paper "China Housing Development Report (2009-2010)". The Green Paper points out that in the fourth quarter of 2009 to 2010 the fourth quarter housing growth market and housing stock market will show the spring warm autumn, the price stability increaseDevelopment trend.　　Overall growth in 2010 was a shock growth.　　Analysis of the report said that in the absence of new major external shocks, under the conditions of the previous three quarter sales and price growth too fast and the development of a small amount of capital pressure of the comprehensive role, the fourth quarter of 2009, the housing market may have a decline in sales and price adjustment process, investment development will continue to rise. 2010 from the overall look may appear after the first Yang, the price stability increase trend. In particular, sales were likely to slow down in the first quarter of 2010, while prices remained generally stable; the second quarter was influenced by inflationary expectations or the government's possible new policy, with a higher probability of sales rebounding, higher prices and higher development investment; third to fourth-quarter prices and sales may be stable or falling, Development investment rises or remains stable.