Housing policy will not be a major boost to consumption

A deep interpretation of the six key words the central Economic Work conference, closed yesterday, sets the tone for China's economic development next year: As China's economy stabilises, next year's economic growth will focus on "promoting the transformation of development patterns".　　　　The headline of the Xinhua News Agency's editorial is directly "promoting change in development and developing in transition". GDP growth: Next year's economic "Eight to ten" [Policy statement] 2009 is the most difficult year for our economy since the new century.　　China has taken the lead in achieving a general upturn in the economic situation. [Interpretation] Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the 2009 China economy has achieved a V-shaped reversal, to achieve more than 8% of the growth is no suspense, next year, China still faces the continued deterioration of external demand, the market is not the two major problems of vitality.　　Chen Dongki, deputy dean of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, said China will enter the fourth-round upward cycle since the 30 anniversary of reform and opening-up, with GDP growth of more than 10% next year.　　Inflation expectations: Next year's CPI increase of not more than 3% [policy statement] to deal with to maintain stable and rapid economic development, adjust the structure of the economy, the management of inflationary expectations of the relationship. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences 2010 "Economic Blue Book" analysis that China's economy will not appear in the next year obvious inflation, CPI increase will be within 3%. Goldman Sachs forecasts that China's annual inflation rate will remain negative for 2009 and that 2010 could be between 2% and 3%. Recent increases in the price of garlic, chili peppers and edible oil have again raised concerns about inflation.　　　　Fan, chief economist at the National Information Center, said that China's economic growth is still lower than the long-term potential growth rate, prices are not pressure. Pull consumption: Let the common people have the money to spend money [policy statement] to expand consumer demand, enhance the consumption of economic growth pull role. We should increase the distribution and adjustment of national income and increase the consumption ability of residents, especially low-income people.　　We must improve the social security system and improve the social security level.　　　　[Interpretation] Tsinghua University, China and the World Economic Research Center Professor Gangming said, to speed up the adjustment of national income distribution pattern, improve enterprises, especially small and medium enterprises and residents in the proportion of income distribution, so that people have the money to spend, dare to spend, consumption will have enough power.　　Real Estate policy: housing policy will not have a big adjustment [policy statement] to increase the supply of ordinary commodity housing, support residents to live and improve the demand for home purchase, to increase the rural reconstruction support efforts. [Interpretation] A report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Supply and demand, housing prices are not expected to rise rapidly. South-West Securities real estate analyst Sho Jian said that in the export trade, consumption and other industries have not seen a big recovery, the current housing policy should not be too obvious adjustment.　　Next year's real estate will be moderately adjusted. Yang Hongxu, Minister of comprehensive research at Hoi Yi Ju, said that the macroeconomic policy part of the surprise did not explicitly mention "inflation prevention", indicating that the central government is not particularly worried about next year's inflation. deduced from this,The central government has not been particularly concerned about rising asset prices, including rising prices. Obviously, for the real estate market, "Without this bad, it means that is good."　　　　At least in the first half of next year, there is no need to worry too much about the country's heavy-handed filing of prices and speculative demand.　　Stock Market trend: The bull market can last until next year [policy statement] to actively expand direct financing, guide and standardize the healthy development of capital markets. [Interpretation] 2008 is "to keep the capital market stable and healthy development", this year is "guidance and norms." "We are in the second phase of a bull market, and the stock market is often the best at this stage," said Gong, vice chairman of JPMorgan's investment banking department.　　　　The bull market should last until next year. " Break monopoly: Monopoly industry is the "short board" in the reform [policy statement] to promote the strategic adjustment of state-owned economy, deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises, and promote the reform of monopolistic industry.　　Relax market access and protect the legitimate rights and interests of private investment. Xiuze, a researcher at the National Development and Reform Commission's Economic Research Institute, said that there were three outstanding problems in China's economy: structural problems, growth patterns and institutional issues.　　Monopoly industry is a lagging field in the current economic reform, and a "short board" in the reform. Comprehensive Beijing Morning News