How does the development model of semiconductor industry

3D has become the inevitable trend after the semiconductor micromachining technology reaches the physical limit, and is currently in the exploratory period of 3D technology. In this process, as well as in the future in the realization of the development trend of 3D technology, the semiconductor industry development model in the end, will not become fabless+foundry this development model end? Perhaps the most voice is the executives of front-line companies in the forefront of industry.

However, we can derive some basic methods of judging the trend from the analysis of macroscopic data. If, in future sales statistics, the IdM sales represented by Intel are growing faster than the foundry camp represented by TSMC, or the IdM camp's sales growth faster than the Febless camp represented by Qualcomm and ARM, the IDM model is a temporary winner.

Even if the IDM mode wins can only be temporary, because the 3D process will eventually mature, after the current exploration of the development period, it will be fabless+foundry mode to win. At that time, foundry manufacturers will be able to provide fabless company with more stable process parameters.

The 3D process exploration period, in the time span may be more than the 70 's plane semiconductor technology exploration period is much shorter, after all, today's computer and software technology level has reached a new height, which helps to shorten the 3D process of exploration and transition period.

The actual development of the industry is likely to happen: in this 3D technology leapfrogging, the plane process also parallel forward development, both coexist for a long period of time. Therefore, it is possible to appear even in the 3D exploratory period, the IdM mode is also difficult to win the possibility, because the fabless company can rely on the existing plane technology for new application design, in the 3D process before the maturity of the plane process foundry commissioned processing, Once the foundry factory has a mature 3D process, you can use the "0 time span" in a timely manner to 3D process commissioned processing. In the macroscopic sales statistics, it is likely that the IdM camp is significantly higher than the fabless camp and the foundry camp. Of course, the follow-up to the romance, only with the two camps of statistics to speak.