How long can the red flag of venture and internet be played?

At any time, someone will tell you that our society has reached a turning point and that the good days are over. The latest round of concern, beginning in the end of 2013, is the famous "Wired" (Wired) magazine named Will 2014 is the year of the Tech Bubble bursts (2014 is a technological bubble burst years? ) article. Next year, if the market finds that all these 1 billion-dollar companies are still unable to turn ' myth ' into reality--like the Nasdaq crash of March 2000--the consequences will be severe. Perhaps the consequences will have a particularly serious impact on the San Francisco Bay Area, where most of these companies are gathered. The article says. However, according to the recovery capital statistics, 273 companies have been listed in 2014, the most active year since 2000, the number of listed companies increased by 23% compared with 2013. The IPO revenue also reached 85 billion dollars (with Ali's work, of course), up 55% per cent from 2013. The Nasdaq index for technology companies in 2013 was 18% lower than the 2000 highs, and VCs were 77% below the 2000-year all-time peak, and technology companies accounted for 19% of the company's market capitalisation, down from 35% in 2000. Barron's list of listed technology companies that are about to face financial difficulties has shrunk from 51 in 2000 to 5 in 2014 years ... At any point, it doesn't look like hinting. As for the domestic, the Internet to create a bubble "concern is equally serious, only in the past year, on the internet bubble," the news has more than 200, from how to judge the crisis ", to the memory of the golden years of the Internet", or even directly under the judgment of Mobile Internet, crazy! "A big guy asked to cultivate the internal strength, prepare for the winter", more practitioners and blood began to become cold. In the siege of doubt, practitioners and onlookers will inevitably ask: China's internet is facing a bubble crisis? Should you remain fearful about tomorrow? How long can the red flag play? Why are internet companies more expensive to value? Is there a 2000-year bubble? In any economic and market cycle, the companies that represent this era's leading technology and industry are always expensive. Even so, because of their importance to the economic engine, investors still have no choice but to continue to subscribe to these companies. We might as well look back, once the railway, aircraft, automobiles, oil and gas equipment are the same era of technology stocks, has been repeatedly hype. Almost all of the superstar stocks in history have come from High-tech fields. For example, the former Richmond and Danville Railroads, which had been able to complete 3300 miles of railways in the United States, naturally became 1882-year High-tech stocks, rising from 32 to 190, and, for example, GM, which invented the eight-cylinder engine in 1914, rose from 22 to 500 1924 American Radio Company because young people loveListen, the share price rose from 5 to 120. Of course, Chinese Internet companies have two more realistic valuations. First, the traditional industry is facing a general transformation, a large number of industrial surplus cash flow to find new opportunities, resulting in the LP increased, supply and demand changes. The second is the money supply factor, this does not mention. In the 2000,. com are all in a floating "state, in the mobile dream net before, there is no large-scale transformation ability." Now, the Giants and vertical cockroaches have a clear monetization, the internet has penetrated into and even transformed the traditional industries, the entire social economy has been difficult to leave the Internet. For example, Baidu surpassed CCTV to become the largest advertising platform, the country's nearly 90% of the mainstream car manufacturers are auto customers, the national more than 200,000 second-hand housing brokers use the information to provide second-hand house transactions, accounting for more than 100 of the country more than half of the city's share of second-hand transactions, In 2013 more than 300,000 companies used their recruitment services on worry. In other words, if the search house has no business to do, it is estimated that many property developers of the House will not sell; If the auto car is not doing business, it is estimated that the car manufacturers and 4S shop car is not too good to sell; if Ctrip has no business to do, it is estimated that the tourism industry has been very bleak; if worry no business, It is estimated that the employment rate has been poor; if Baidu does not have a business to do, it is estimated that the owner's market budget has been reduced to a poor degree. "How long will the red flag last?" Smartphones and mobile internet are the gifts that Americans give to China. Why, as labor costs rise, it is arguably China should have a certain scale of unemployment, because it is hard for migrant workers in the west to get into high-end manufacturing, which is also a worry for many economists. Yet despite the economic slowdown of 7% per cent, unemployment is still not there, the key factor is the mobile internet. Touch screen mobile phone, is a relatively rare tool in human history, both increase the technical complexity, but at the same time reduce the use of complexity. Historically, the tide of technological innovation has had to clash with the old industries, which have had difficulty in accepting new tools. For example, a wagon driver digs a railroad burner and a textile worker destroys the steam engine. PC age, a lot of network age 10 years of friends, typing or one refers to Zen. The smartphone, however, needs only one finger, which drops the threshold of low-end industry practitioners into the Internet. For example, a variety of car software out, the number of unemployed personnel and quasi-manual workers, turned wearing gloves, became Jia white-collar, in Beijing monthly income is quite impressive. Urban residents have a huge demand for services, especially under China's one-child policy, which is accelerating with the aging trend. Those who can no longer be qualified for the Foxconn assembly line of migrant workers, by virtue of mobile phones, cut into the field. Cleaning, month sister-in-law, laundry, takeout ... My wife does not even go out to buy the medicine now, click on app, half an hour, and cheaper than the downstairs pharmacy half. This reused demographic dividend is unimaginable to Americans. or Robin LiIn his speech, he said he had bought a flower in the United States on a business trip to Amazon for two weeks. Is this going to happen in the sky cat or Jingdong? We can see that this year there is a strange data: according to tomsinsight monitoring, access to technology partners after the acquisition of information accounted for all the partners in the proportion of information, has reached 96.5%. This from a point of view there is indeed a bubble and brain fever, but in other words, because of the source code, cloud computing, design outsourcing and so on behalf of the IT technology has matured. So there are a lot of traditional industry practitioners dare to participate in this round of internet entrepreneurship, they look for technical partners, but also the existing ideas translated into the implementation of the plan, and then find the right team to make it. Why are there so many people flocking to a really nasty pancake? Why is it that the valuations of Internet companies are incomprehensible to anyone who cuts into a traditional industry? Or is it because China's service industry is so primitive that it has too little basic investment in services. The plate is too big, now even can not use the knife and fork, directly into the start. At this time, investment in the Internet almost covers China's most important industrial structure, investment in the high growth and high value-added of the pan-consumer sector. The opportunity of the Times and its reactionary 23 years ago, commercial banks to private enterprise loans also stipulates not to exceed 50,000 yuan, otherwise it is a disciplinary offence. 16 years ago, Ma looked for a bank to borrow, the bank said that they have not heard of the number of registered users "can do mortgage loans;" With the domestic investment talks, the other side is concerned about how many computers Tencent and other fixed assets ... A little farther forward: Ptolemy's astronomy was sensitive and precise, but no one had ever been told that seafarers could use the artifact; if it weren't for Adam Smith's record, the young man who had installed the automatic switch valve for the steam engine would have taken his inspiration to his grave; The Roman emperor simply killed the inventor in order to avoid the value of the gold in the glass material. British inventors and industrialists have been able to get the necessary funds to turn concepts into products, thereby driving the engine of the Industrial Revolution, as Britain developed a shareholding system, limited liability companies, bonds and stock markets in the 18th century. In the the 1970s, when Congress allowed pension funds and non-profit organizations to invest in risk funds, there was a big development in the technology sector. No Kleiner, no sand on the road venture capitalists, where will come out Google, Amazon? Now, from technology media, angel investors, traditional industry LP, social networks to underground Internet channels, entrepreneurs have more than thousands of ways to get started, recruit teams, and get users. Every worthwhile dream can be a fair and reasonable trading opportunity. Do not because of the existence of bubbles and flicker, then ignore or even sing the opportunity to decline this era. Quote Thomas B. Macaulay's famous quote again--what is the principle on which we see nothing but progress behind us, but still think that there is only depravity in sight, and there is no other? "The future is always worth the time you burn yourself."