How the butterfly effect of limited numbers will evolve

What is the ripple effect of Beijing's limited license plate? From January 1, 2011 onwards, Beijing 20,000 monthly plate number, including private car license plate accounted for 80%, Beijing before the month on the number of cards about 50,000, in theory, after the card rate of 32%.　　But some people remind, in order to raise the winning rate, many will start the whole family to participate in the lottery number, has the dealer analysis, if really such medium card rate will drop to 10%. It is in this logical inference that the industry has a "Beijing will die a group of dealers and rely on car dealers to survive the media" argument. In particular, this year has just entered the field of car sales dealers, in the eyes of many people will face extinction.　　Not only that, because used car license plate separation policy, in Beijing to buy second-hand car bare cars will be less and fewer, second-hand prices fell sharply.　　Limited number of car buyers expected to fall, resulting in the surrounding areas such as Yan Jiao, Beijing has a downward trend in prices, and some rental prices in Beijing's main urban area has been rising; How to save the Beijing auto market that fell into the abyss from the top of the mountain? Many manufacturers and distributors of the idea is: speed up the promotion of second-hand car replacement, shorten the change cycle. At present, Beijing car ownership in 5 million vehicles, if the annual update of 10%, will activate 500,000 of the stock market, which will greatly ease the city more than 700 4S stores sales pressure.　　More senior people speculate that Beijing is likely to introduce a series of environmental protection measures, such as speeding up the elimination of yellow tagged vehicles and the state three emission standards to indirectly pull new car sales.　　In view of the scarcity of license plate resources, the future to improve parking fees and other factors, Beijing's second car consumption must be like Shanghai, Hong Kong, the trend towards high-end, low-end independent brand products sales will shrink significantly. It is said that November this year, Beijing Chery's largest distributor one months sold 3,000 QQ, the flag cloud such a car to increase the price of 35,000 yuan, this scene will be the last madness of the Beijing economy car.　　Increases the parking fee, enlarges the limit Line strength, the automobile consumption threshold will raise greatly, the economy car will be brunt. The gradual withdrawal of independent brands from the Beijing market is only the first step. As distributors increase their investment in the replacement of old cars, and the future of Beijing eliminated a large number of cheap second-hand cars will flow into the surrounding provinces and cities, China's future local low-end car brands, is likely to die in the joint-venture brand of second-hand cars business.　　When the accord, the Camry such a second-hand car if the price of fifty thousand or sixty thousand yuan into the field, who will spend the same money to buy their own brand compact sedan? Now the entire industry has turned its sights on Shenzhen, Guangzhou and even Chengdu, which are also facing heavy traffic jams, fearing that the Beijing restrictions effect is spreading to these car-consuming cities. In many people's eyes, the first-line city limit will be the trend, the future of China's automobile market will be the consumption structure: the high-end models occupy the first-tier city, two or three-tier urban competition intensified, independent brand center of gravity to the Midwest and three or four-line markets. (Xu Feng)