Huang's dairy water giant jumps to grow in the year (figure)

Dongxing Securities Research Institute Liu Jiawei from the current growth rate of milk cows, after the next two years will usher in the outbreak or jump growth (geometric growth), taking into account the push of pasteurized milk, room temperature milk market expansion and fruit milk consumption group cultivation of basic maturity, we expect the Emperor's Dairy (002329) this year's performance will grow faster, The Ming and the next or significantly accelerated. The forecast company 2010-2012 EPS is 0.60 yuan, 0.83 yuan and 1.18 yuan respectively, corresponding PE is 43 times times, 31 times times and 22 times times, in view of the past 9 years dairy industry average PE up to 55 times times, and the company is a high growth of small and medium-sized enterprises, to 50 times times the 2011 stock price can reach 42 yuan.　　, thus maintaining the company's long-term "strongly recommended" investment rating. The protein and other nutrients of the water milk are much higher than the normal milk. The data show that the same amount of milk and ordinary milk (mainly black and white milk) compared to the former water accounted for 78%, the latter as high as 87%, the former fat content of 11%, the latter is only 3.75%, the former protein reached 5.3%, the latter is only 3.4%;　　The content of total dry matter and amino acid was higher or higher than that of the latter. The company is headquartered in Guangxi region's regional dairy faucet, with unique products and stable consumer groups, pasteurized milk, fruit milk and water milk will still be the company's differentiated operation of the bright spot and focus, the future is the biggest aspect of water milk. Guangxi has a unique tropical fruit resources, fruit milk will also be the company's development of the characteristics of the industry.　　Guangxi Milk Buffalo Breeding in the ascendant, the company will take the east wind into the water milk industry leading.　　According to the State Council's opinion on promoting the sustainable and healthy development of dairy industry, in the south, the development of milk Buffalo has become one of the strategy of dairy industry, Milk Buffalo construction will be to alleviate the milk industry "North more South less" contradiction of the force, is also one of the ten pillar industries in Guangxi, the company has become a pillar industry leader in Guangxi. Since 2004, Guangxi accelerated the cultivation and improvement of buffalo, the annual product change cattle more than 100,000, 2009 to more than 300,000, the quality of the station reached 2,700.　　Guangxi finance to improve cattle per head subsidy of 10 yuan (as long as farmers to the cattle to improve the breeding station to obtain subsidies), the production of calves can be sold to about 3000 yuan, but not to improve the calf can only sell 200-300 yuan/head, so farmers improve enthusiasm is high. On the other hand, the company in the purchase of raw milk to take a insured purchase policy, making farmers loyal and trust enhanced, more conducive to the company to collect more milk sources. At present, the buffalo milk source accounts for about 80% of Guangxi, according to the idea of the purchase of insured and breed improvement, according to two generation of improvement need 7 years time calculation, the second half of 2010 to 2012, the number of milk cattle in Guangxi will grow rapidly, as a result of the improved water buffalo individual and milk production　　The company's milk in the next 1-3 years will increase by leaps and bounds, for the company to do large water milk laid a strong foundation. Its own and cooperative milk source base will be vigorously built to ensure that the company effectively control the number of milk source. Up to 200In the 9-year period, the company has a total of 2 base, cooperation base 12, its own and contracted peasant cattle herds are 2290 head and 18042, respectively, if the successful production of investment projects, the company's own base in the next two years will be expanded to 5, cooperation base 16, the control of cattle herds will reach 41962 head,　　Among them, the number of cattle herds 8232, contracted farmers Dairy Cattle 33730, the company's capacity will increase from 50,000 tons to 105,000 tons, sales growth of 2.1 times times. Many of the company's original milk source and the future of the construction of new bases is difficult to match the competition, which will be the company to control the source of milk resources to provide a strong guarantee to ensure that the company's position in Guangxi Dairy boss stable. Company three kinds of milk product gross profit margin is significantly higher than the industry average level, mainly has the following reasons: One is more than the use of pasteurized milk bottles, plastic barrels, the cost is far more than the ambient temperature product packaging materials used aluminum composite paper packaging materials low; second, the direct marketing model lowers the cost, The increase in bottled milk users provides a guarantee for this part of the profits; third, water milk gross profit margin is higher, 2006-2008 water milk gross profit margin of 52.7%, 51.8% and 47.5% respectively, higher than the Holstein milk 10%-11%, thereby improving the company's overall gross margin.　　The level of Mao's interest rate is significantly higher than that of peers, the future development of water milk will be its main driving force from the region to the country. Rating Date Research institute researcher latest rating target price range 2010-4-26 Citic Securities Huang increased by 32. 7 2010-3-29 Guotai Hu Chunxia neutral 26. 62 2010-3-25 National Securities Liu Xiaofeng cautiously recommended 28 diluted EPS (yuan) 2007a2008a2009a2010e2011e2012e forecast number-------20 20 4 average 0. 37740. 45900. 42630. 62450. 82201. 0696 median------0. 63000. 82641. 0660 Maximum------0. 70920. 94101. 1766 minimum value------0. 51400. 60750. 9700 Standard deviation------0. 04470. 07190. 0857 industry average 0. 29810. 16060. 24030. 58320. 58950. 9694 Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 average 0. 75120. 60130. 60990. 80710. 98781. 2234