Huatai Securities: Jinfeng Wine industry planning to play the Expo card

Sina tip: This article belongs to the Research Report column, only for the analysis of a stock of personal views and views, and the unofficial news report, Sina does not guarantee its authenticity and objectivity, all relevant to the stock of effective information to the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange of the announcement as prevail, please investors pay attention to risk. Huatai Securities Zhang Yin recently we Jinfeng wine Industry (600616) conducted a survey. With the company's high-level exchanges, we understand that next year will be the World Expo is a good opportunity to showcase Shanghai enterprises. At present, Jinfeng wine industry is actively planning the World Expo during the brand marketing, hoping to take this opportunity to enhance the company's brand image, while relying on the increase in the number of people to expand sales.　　The planned measures include the use of Shanghai Joint Pavilion to display some of the products, will be part of high-end products to create gift wine. The impact of the financial crisis on the short term, the financial crisis has affected the real economy, the official business of wine has decreased year-on-year, the consumption of high-end rice wine has a small impact.　　But even the high-grade rice wine, the price of each bottle is not more than 100 yuan, so the effect is not substantial. Rice wine is a traditional Chinese wine, although the rice wine enterprises have been in the national sales attempt, but the change in consumption habits need a long time, market cake expansion in the future can be expected, but the short-term space is not small. At present, the consumption area of rice wine is still mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai area. Jinfeng wine industry, Gu Yue long Longshan (600059), Kuaiji and other yellow rice wine enterprises are mainly in the established market cake to seize market share, the market presents the characteristics of the long, industry competition is still fierce, excessive competition has restricted the development of the industry,　　Fine management will help enterprises gain more share in the market segment competition. Jinfeng wine Industry believes that the future of rice wine industry may be transformed from manufacturing to services, not only the production of low-value products, but also to produce more cultural connotations, high value-added products, change to price competition, access to a small amount of processing costs.　　Jinfeng wine Industry believes that in the last year after the melamine in dairy products, the state of food supervision and strengthening of food safety supervision, to enhance the quality threshold of products have a certain role. "Double brand" strategy Jinfeng wine industry integration has been launched, the effect will gradually appear. Jinfeng Liquor after the acquisition and wine, 2008 and wine has begun to use Jinfeng wine, and in the taste of the adjustment, basically achieve the same. The confession of the base wine is the part of the integration that yields directly. At the same time, the Jinfeng wine industry's sales and market resources integration role can not be neglected.　　At present, the company to promote the "Stone Library Door", "and wine" dual brand strategy, and the two brands for differentiated positioning. Jinfeng liquor Industry at this stage of sound management, not only consider the current profitability, but also consider the future development. From the current cost-benefit ratio, the Shanghai area is the highest, the company in Shanghai to adopt a direct marketing model, by the geographical location, the product layout to the terminal supermarkets, hotels. The company's share in the Shanghai market is also the highest, we estimate the share of about 63%. Although some brands through the purchase of gifts activities, the impact onSea market, but these products are showing a phased and one-time characteristics, in the long term also need to rely on consumer Word-of-mouth. As a result of the national market development is difficult, the cost is also high, Jinfeng wine industry will take the strategy to the country's regional markets for evaluation, the overall strategy of persuasion near the distant broadcast "way." Outside Shanghai, mainly in Jiangsu, Zhejiang area sales, especially in the Taihu lake in southern Jiangsu, Changshu, Wuxi and other regions to sell a little scale.　　At present, the Jinfeng wine industry in Fujian region has carried out a small scope of attempts, some positive results. Target price: 16.8 yuan Jinfeng wine industry new total capacity of 100,000 tons of yellow wine, a period of 40,000 tons.　　For the expansion of capacity, Jinfeng wine industry explained as follows: The company currently has 3 wineries in Feng Jing, and Wine 1 wineries, 1 wineries, which are the water conservation area, which is facing the relocation problem, this 100,000 tons of capacity contains the relocation part, at the same time and wine to provide raw wine also need to add new capacity.　　In addition, the Jinfeng wine industry currently 70,000 tons of stock of wine, the need for some use of external warehouses, a year's cost of tens of thousands of dollars, new capacity to include finished products warehouse and new bottle warehouse, you can save this part of the cost. Overall, Jinfeng wine industry is currently focused on the yellow rice wine industry, promoting and wine, stone library door double brand strategy, dual brand strategy to take into account the high, mid-range product demand, is expected to 2009 Stone library door Sales more stable, and wine, Lennon good sales growth relatively fast. 2010 Jinfeng Wine industry growth, relying on the domestic economic recovery and promotional and promotional results at the Expo, we initially expect Jinfeng wine 2009 earnings per share of 0.597 yuan/share, 2010 earnings per share is expected to reach 0.7 yuan/share. Taking into account the impact of the World Expo and the active development of the management of the company (such as the current negotiations with Taiwan companies to enter the Taiwan market), we give the "prudent recommendation" rating of 16.8 yuan/share.