Huawei Sho Jian: Moore's law will eventually doom cloud computing

Huawei Technology Co., Ltd. Strategy and Marketing Minister Sho Jian (Tencent Science and technology photo)

September 26 News, Huawei Technology Co., Ltd. Strategy and Marketing Minister Sho Jian in the ICT China 2011 High-level Forum, said Moore's law will eventually perish, which is precisely the arrival of the cloud computing era, because cloud computing is precisely the solution to the contradictions caused by Moore's law, It minimizes our need for technical and storage capabilities for terminals, and puts the technology and storage capabilities of the terminals in the background to run.

Sho Jian that cloud computing is the third computer revolution after mainframe and PC, from stand-alone computing to the revolution of distributed computing.

Sho Jian points out that cloud computing offers two big opportunities for telecoms operators:

1, the development of cloud computing, highlighting the importance of the network.

2, cloud computing needs a safe and reliable service provider, and security is indeed the biggest advantage of telecom operators.

The terminal aspect, also presents two big change trends:

1, personal terminal Intelligence and commercial terminal network.

2, smart terminals and smart phone prices are gradually falling.

Sho Jian is expected to say that the global ICT industry will be born in the Sangovan-level market:

1, traditional telecommunications operations and manufacturing market, we are expected to reach 1.8 trillion U.S. dollars.

2, products and services market, we are expected to reach 1.2 trillion U.S. dollars.

3, the information services market, it will become a new trillion-dollar market.

In addition, the next 5 years, cloud computing market size will be more than 200 billion U.S. dollars, cloud computing will become the most important business development direction of operators.

2011 China International Information and Communication exhibition held in Beijing from September 26 to 30th, Tencent Science and technology as the official strategic cooperation portal of the Internet Congress and the official micro-BO cooperation platform, will be on the scene to carry out a full range of video and text live. and special set up on-site high-end interview, the industry experts and business representatives to discuss the industry status quo, pointing to the future trend.

As the official designated microblogging partner of the General Assembly, Tencent Weibo (http://t.qq.com/) launched the "to the communications big guy questions" activities, all users can advance to your attention to the communications circle of the big guys ask questions. Some of the questions will be selected, presented at the scene and answered by the guest.

The following is a transcript of the speech by Sho Jian, strategy and marketing Minister of Huawei Technology Co., Ltd.

Sho Jian: Leaders, experts, and members of the media community, good afternoon. I am glad to have the opportunity to report to you today on the development trend of telecom industry and the development strategy of Huawei Company in the coming years.

We look back over the past 20 years, our entire telecommunications industry has undergone three major technological changes, the first is from analog to digital technology change, it makes our entire communications costs drastically reduced, making our fixed-line telephone popularization and scale become possible. Similarly, it has spawned a huge fixed-phone market.

The second technological change, from fixed to mobile change, to ubiquitous mobile communications, allows us to use mobile phones to communicate at any time, any place.

The third technology change is from the narrow band based on TDM to the change of broadband technology. In the third technological change, in fact, the first two changes more embodies a scale economy, a large-scale. And the last change, from narrowband to broadband, in addition to the scale of economic change, but also reflects the scope of the economy, so that the boundaries between our industries become more blurred.

These three technological changes, from narrowband to broadband, are particularly different, because it has made our broadband a universal service. In the Western developed countries, broadband has been introduced into the infrastructure sector, broadband popularity, but also for the development of cloud computing laid a foundation. Today our mobile phone users have broken through 5 billion, the number of Internet users has exceeded 2 billion, technology profoundly changed our work, life and communication methods. Today, we use our broadband Internet, the amount of information we get in a day, equivalent to the amount of information that a person has acquired in the last 18th century.

Similarly, the development of technology has also changed the pattern of our telecommunications industry, along with the development of telecommunications, Huawei as a communications solutions provider, based on customer-centric philosophy, closely around customer demand, continuous innovation. Seize the history and industry change and development brought about by the opportunity, we from a small innovation company, grow into today's world's second largest communications equipment suppliers. As I said just now, the popularity of broadband has laid the groundwork for cloud computing, which is subverting our hardware, software and media business models, and our users have shifted from buying to buying services. This transformation of the business model is dividing our industry pattern, cloud computing is not only the change from the box to service business model, it is the third computer revolution after the mainframe and PC, and the revolution of distributed computing from single machine computing. We all know Moore's law, Moore's law will one day be doomed to extinction, which just marks the advent of the cloud computing era, because cloud computing is the solution of Moore's Law of contradictions, it minimizes our technical and storage capabilities of the terminal requirements, the terminal technology and storage capabilities in the background to run.

Similarly, cloud computing has brought a rare market development opportunity for our telecom operators, which is mainly embodied in two aspects:

The first is the development of cloud computing, which underscores the importance of the Web. Because of cloud computing, it will be real computing and storage in the background to run, so it calculates the results and the storage of information flow through the network to connect to the terminal, which also facilitates the development of the network, so the cloud is highly dependent on the network, but also promote the development of the network.

The second aspect, is cloud computing, it needs is a security reliable service provider, but the security is credible, precisely is our telecommunication operator biggest superiority. We telecom operators can be safe, credible, and a large number of technology and storage as the basis for the digital business model to integrate our hardware content and applications, to provide users with new value.

Also can rely on our huge user data, we build such as data mining, advertising platform These, the use of new business models to achieve traffic, create value. As IP changes the entire communications industry, cloud computing technology will also change the entire information industry. This also provides a historic opportunity for Huawei to enter the IT industry, and we seize the opportunity to change from CT to ICT industry.

At the end of the change, we can actually reflect two trends.

The first is the intelligence of personal terminals. The second is the networking of commercial terminals. In the field of personal terminals, we have found two phenomena, the previous colleagues also said that the first is the rapid growth of smartphone shipments, 2010, the global smartphone shipments reached 300 million, an increase of 70%, and these smartphones can do more and more, more powerful, can send and receive mail, Working with documents, playing games, and so on. From this perspective, our mobile phone has been replaced, the traditional non-smartphone will gradually withdraw from the stage of history. We can verify this from the development trajectory of China's shanzhai machine, from the glorious times of the Shanzhai machine a few years ago, to the demise of the Shanzhai machine.

The second phenomenon is the gradual decline in the price of our smart terminals and smartphones. In the fourth quarter of last year, in the fourth quarter of 2010, 2/3 of all smartphones in our global shipments were priced at $150 or even lower. This, in turn, has facilitated the rapid growth of the entire smartphone shipments, forming a virtuous circle.

So from this perspective, the cost control and pricing strategies of smart phones and smart terminals will directly affect the size of our sales.

Similarly, the network of industry terminals is also the foundation of our construction industry informatization. More and more communication modules, are built in our cars, ships, China's north, Upper and Canton of the first city, almost all taxis have our GPS module, using these modules, we can carry out remote control of our taxis, in Beijing we can set up our taxis, For example, a taxi out of the six ring can be automatically cut off oil power, this is the internet of things. This is why we call the Internet of things as the origin of the blue sea market. The changes in the terminal bring us new market opportunities and opportunities for change, and Huawei is accelerating development and growth in this opportunity.

Looking ahead, the information society really has arrived, the digitization and the ubiquitous network, has made our industry boundary become more blurred, the telecommunication industry, IT industry, the Internet, the consumer electronics, the media and so on these industries, mutually fuses and penetrates, the whole industry faces a brand-new pattern, a reconstruction, the open, Competitive and collaborative digital ecosystems have been formed. In this trend of industrial integration and industry infiltration, we have seen some changes. Last year, the United States had two more than 100-year-old newspapers that had stopped printing and switched to the Internet version. The New York Times was born in 1851, has won more than 100 News awards, its circulation in the United States ranked third, has become a part of American life, last year, the New York Times newspaper Group Chairman also announced that some day in the future, about 2015 years, the New York Times will stop printing, Switch to network version. These are the changes brought about by the competition between industries.

Around us, our TV and movie programs are now more and more available on the web. In the same way, some of our applications in the Web are now gradually being presented in our television, which is the result of mutual integration and openness among industries.

Based on the trend of the entire industry of ICT, we anticipate that the global ICT industry will be born Sangovan-level market. The first is the traditional telecoms and manufacturing markets, which we expect to reach $1.8 trillion trillion. The second is the IT products and services market, which we expect to reach $1.2 trillion trillion. Another is the new information services market, which will become a new trillion-dollar market.

In this context, how should the telecom industry develop? From a business standpoint, our telecommunications industry is in a new starting point, the entire telecommunications sector in the business perspective is to achieve the four major changes, from focus to focus on the voice of the data from the focus of the pipeline to focus on the content, from the focus of human communication to focus on the communication between the machine, from the focus of the CT to It is based on these changes that the entire telecommunications industry will be connected to broadband and digital, access to huge industrial development opportunities.

So from voice to data, broadband has become the first task beyond voice development Business, the global mobile broadband users will achieve 10 times times the growth of 3 billion of the size. With the broadband experience as the center, the open environment around the terminal Business Network has been formed. As the challenges of flow and cost are overcome, mobile broadband will become the most important force for industrial development.

From the human to the machine, the Internet of Things has opened a new door for us, and the internet of Things has become the new blue sea market that telecom industry has surpassed the users of population development. According to forecasts, so by 2020, the proportion of communication between objects and objects in the earth is 10:1, so the internet of things opens a new door for us.

In addition from pipeline to content. The home network is the birthplace of the telecommunication industry, and the informatization of the family has put forward the new demand to the telecommunication profession. The home network is also the main position of the triple network integration, the two-way and high-bandwidth characteristics of the telecommunication network make the integration of the three networks in a favorable position, which also provides an unprecedented strategic agglomeration for the telecom industry to enter the new industry.

Similarly, from CT to ICT services, the advent of cloud computing, to go beyond the pipeline, to find value in a new direction, the next five years, cloud computing market space will be more than 200 billion U.S. dollars, cloud computing will become the most important business development direction of operators.

What will our society be like in the next ten years? In a word to sum up, is a digital society is coming, information and society, digital society we talked for many years, but today has really come, the essence of digital society is the ICT technology in various industries, such as Digital city, digital medicine, Smart grid, intelligent transportation and so on. Then its embodiment is the information digitization and the network, uses the word summary, all contents are digitized, all terminals are networked. Faced with this change in telecom business and the challenges of cost structure and flow, our corresponding network architecture is also changing, and formally based on this, Huawei has put forward the cloud tube end of the new information Service architecture, first we talk about cloud, from the business point of view, cloud computing to achieve the business of it, with the telecommunications industry from the voice to data. From the cost point of view, we are now facing the era of information explosion, the next ten years, the entire volume will increase 270 times times, cloud computing using a distributed computing architecture, can realize the dynamic sharing of resources and on demand, can provide ultra-high capacity and ultra-low cost of computing and storage capabilities to meet the huge information needs.

Next we look at the pipeline, the current high-definition video and 3D video rapid development, in this trend, the network should be how to develop? The network is a sentence, full IP, UWB and ubiquitous broadband. All-IP has become the consensus of the industry. Future Hspe and LTE will build ubiquitous broadband networks, raising human information to a higher level.

Finally, the intelligence of the terminal. Based on the powerful CPU and open system, now the intelligent terminal can run a variety of applications, and can be connected to the cloud services, in the intelligent trend, the terminal presents the integration, specialization and diversification trend.

Under such a trend background, what will Huawei's strategy be? As we all know, the past more than 20 years, Huawei has been working in the field of telecommunications, with the in-depth development of information, from the business point of view, our voice age has been replaced by the data age, the integration of the entire ICT industry is deepening, including operators are also in the transformation of the entire ICT, So Huawei's overall strategy is also taking place in some adjustments. From the simple CT industry to the entire ICT industry, a word to summarize Huawei's strategy is to focus on the ICT industry, to provide cloud computing, network, Terminal solutions.

In these three pieces of business, in the pursuit of the Internet, we are the pursuit of leadership, although at present we have achieved a certain leading position in this field, but to truly lead the industry, we still need to continue efforts.

In this terminal market, including personal terminals, home terminals and industry terminals, we have accumulated for many years, the next step will accelerate development and growth.

And in the field of cloud computing, based on the development trend of the whole industry, since 2008, Huawei has been a large-scale investment, has entered the IT industry, and cloud computing is Huawei's ICT strategy in the core.

In the context of the integration of the industry as a whole, and ICT technology in various industries, our expansion of the customer base, but also from a single customer base to a wide range of customer base, we in the operator market, the accumulation of our ICT solutions, through access to the corporate market and the consumer market, we provide solutions, In the same way, we can better understand the enterprise market and consumer demand in the market, in turn, more support for our carrier market, to achieve the transformation of ICT. Our pursuit in the operator market is to seep out, in the consumer market the strategy is to build the brand.

Finally, based on the historical opportunity brought to us by information social change, we will stick to innovation and join hands with customers to explore the road of future change. Thank you very much.

(Responsible editor: Lu Guang)