I smelled the experiment on Fire Phone.

Author Michael Mace, a former Apple and Palm executive with 10 years of experience in Apple, has been responsible for global customer & competition analysis.

I've always had a hard time with Amazon Fire Phone. "Boring" is my first reaction, but I will still be full of curiosity to try to see, perhaps it can have a better feeling. But for now, it's more like a bunch of interesting features than a coherent, clear product (like what's in common with the naked eye and a free courier service)? Not at all. In addition, it only supports one operator, and the price is not cheap to stunning. I'm happy to see big companies trying to innovate, but unfortunately, I really don't see how much fire Phone can affect the market.

BGR simply wrote in the report: "Amazon is completely innovative in the wrong place." CNN also said: "If your opponent's iphone 5s or Galaxy S5 satisfied, then basically do not have to consider Fire phone." ”

So why did Amazon launch Fire Phone? Ben Thompson believes the Fire Phone is designed to enhance the relationship between Amazon and the lucrative prime users. I agree that this is one of the motives. But if it is the only goal, should it be more reasonable to take the price low enough to capture more users, as the Kindle does? Ben himself mentioned that there are many other ways to expand the prime user base. For example, how many of the apps on the Fire Phone can be put on the Android and iOS platforms alone, and can't be a better way to serve prime users? Why not install some apps on their existing phones rather than compete with iphone and Galaxy for users, and simply "incorporate" them? From Ben's point of view, Amazon's current approach is to sell you the sofa, which is a better way to sell the sofa cover ....

Why is Amazon doing fire Phone? If you are Jeff Bezos, and you have a steady relationship with Apple and many other handset makers, why do you want to be the enemy of a limited sale of mobile phone products?

Finally, I have the answer.

I smelled the experiment on Fire Phone, and I judged that Amazon was testing something, and the experiment was so important that Amazon threw in a lot of money, even if it caused a competitor's hostility. After thinking about it and trying to look at the world with Amazon's eyes, I think I understand why Fire Phone is an important strategic product for Amazon-it's not aimed at the mobile market, it's about the evolution of the mobile electric business, and Amazon's own future.

It is necessary to introduce the situation of the mobile electricity trader first. For online retailers, the biggest challenge for mobile technology, especially smartphones, is that people don't do a lot of shopping. Although people will visit your Web store and use your shopping app, they are often reluctant to order. According to industry experience, satisfactory PC-side purchase conversion rate of 3%, but the mobile end of the conversion rate is only 1%, less than 2/3.

A 3% to 1% drop is frightening in an industry that has tried to raise the rate of conversion even at a bit. Many companies spend a lot of time trying to improve but have little effect, and the pace of improvement is not as fast as people are moving to the mobile end of the web. The following are the things that make online retailers sleepless:

What if the next generation of Internet users turn to smartphones and wearable devices faster than we can solve the problem of mobile-side shopping?

In case, when people transition to the mobile end, our overall business conversion rate from 3% to 1%?

For Amazon, the electric-industry leader, does the low conversion rate on the mobile end mean that the online store is not suitable for smartphones? Will new mobile technology or apps eventually replace online shopping, just as the online stores have made traditional retail stores obsolete? Will Amazon's giant disappear?

Don't laugh. In science and technology, the changes in technology often make the original giants fall. Take a look at the story of Lotus and Digital Equipment Corporation and you'll see.

And the underlying threat is to make Jeff Bezos worried. This is a huge change from an unexpected direction and is likely to seriously hurt Amazon. More seriously, it may be too late to react if the threat is developed to be visibly visible.

So now it's time to move on! Amazon needs to plunge into the mobile market and figure out: What would it be like to aim at the mobile side of the shopping experience and start from scratch to make a smartphone?

If this is Amazon's motivation, then fire Phone's core is undoubtedly Firefly features--firefly can quickly scan to identify 100 million items and support the purchase. And do Fire phone out, really want to test the thing is, you can through a properly configured mobile phone, completely replace a shop online? Is it possible that you don't shop online and the phone itself becomes the store itself? Is it possible that you do not search for merchandise, only take photos, scan the code, or open your mouth and say your name?

Amazon is everywhere.

"Firefly Technology gives Amazon the ability to invade every store on the planet and turn them into a sample showroom for Amazon," futurist Paul Saffo said. "Further, I want to say this: Firefly wants to make the whole world a Amazon store!"

Amazon's preemptive fire Phone has the opportunity to grab a share of the market's various retailers, whether physical or online, Walmart, Target or ebay. On the contrary, if any other other family were to rob the first, Amazon would be on the brink.

I think that's the real reason Amazon is involved in mobile phones. It needs to test and adjust the hardware and software in the shopping process integration status, and this test depends on other people's mobile phone is not realistic. In addition, Amazon is reluctant to share data collected with other handset makers (especially with Google's allies)-after all, it's about the future of Amazon's entire company.

From this point of view, Fire Phone's other features are not difficult to understand. You need to throw a sexy function, such as the naked eye, to attract users. The price doesn't have to be low, and Amazon isn't going to sell a lot of mobile phones. It is enough for a country to work with only one operator, as Amazon is not yet ready to expand globally. What Amazon needs is just enough users to actively participate in Amazon's experiments. In the future, the giant will observe, learn, fine-tune the experiment and learn more.

Then, after finding the formula, we'll see the real Amazon phone. I expect it to be priced more aggressively and more widely. I also expect Amazon to push Firefly applications to other mobile platforms in the future. By then, Amazon would not have been so secretive, but would have expanded rapidly to form a monopoly.

Of course, the experiment may fail. Amazon may find that there is no magic formula for turning a phone into a store. In this case, Amazon will silently let fire Phone retire, bear the loss, and turn to other things-everyone knows, money in the eyes of Jeff Bezos.

What it means to us.

Do you remember? When Google first started making smartphones, many people were speculating that Google would send their phones for free, plus free wireless internet access. The logic behind this is that Google can learn a lot from its users, and its value is higher than the cost of a mobile package service. Later, this speculation gradually dissipated Google is "incorporation" rather than destroying the mobile industry, because Google can not get enough money from users to make up for the cost of mobile package services.

Based on the same logic, if anyone can make a free phone, the biggest possibility is Amazon. Even if you don't get your phone for free, you'll probably get a premium discount, and Amazon has the advantage of competing with the rest of the handset market. And Google and Apple, they do not have such a strong retail channel, so dare not take the risk of taking this route. A better confrontational strategy is to work with other companies that are threatened by Firefly. For example, the application of a class firefly, open out, any other online stores can access, and in sales revenue to be divided into?

The formation of such a coalition of interests requires advanced skills that Apple may be able to make, but it prefers to work with a handful of obedient partners. Google favors a wide range of collaborations, but it is also a problem to maintain a focused, long-term partnership.

All in all, Amazon is taking a long, short attack.

Will Apple become a friend and work directly with Amazon? In addition to cooperation in the field of mobile power, Amazon can help Apple improve its consistently weak online services. The jobs may not agree, but Cook might think it's a good idea.

In addition to large companies, Fire Phone can also have a significant impact on specific groups. The company should study Firefly's API and connect its platform to the Firefly; for small retailers, it would be no good to stop their stores from becoming Amazon's showroom, as well as research on how to use mobile phones to boost their shopping experience; for other mobile phone providers (Samsung, for example), You may wish to work with Amazon to integrate the firefly in depth to gain a profit-sharing.

For ordinary mobile phone users like us, Fire phone is constantly reminding us that everything is just beginning. When the smartphone market is widely thought to be maturing, we don't know how it will change life, and how much subversion and new opportunities it can bring.