Idonews column: Technology to the inflection point, the entrepreneur should turn to

Introduction: In any case, we need to avoid further roots in purely technical applications.

Idonews Column October 23 Highlights (micro-signal ilovedonews)

The topic still starts with bubbles.

Today, Snowball founder Fang Sanwen a message in the snowball community. He wrote: Doug Leone says http://www.aliyun.com/zixun/aggregation/8012.html "> Sequoia Capital has reduced investment in mobile internet and social networking." Mainly refers to the kind of application that can be made on a weekend. Instead, it is more basic technology. The message was then moved to a circle of friends and spread quickly.

The investment company has long been known for its investment track rather than racing. From the IT era of Cisco, Oracle to Apple, from the Internet domain Yahoo, Google, to Linkedin, all the same. Now, the Sequoia seems to have found a new circuit, which naturally causes a little attention.

And if we use the "more Chinese" thinking to understand, what the legendary investor wants to say is that purely basic technology-based application development has seen the ceiling, and the next step is to develop basic technical research and commercial applications of technology--more specifically, from the existing application level up and down, such as open garden technology innovation and other red such commercial applications.

There is no doubt that this is a clearly targeted and very useful investment strategy. Even when it came to investing, Doug Leone's argument was still very valuable, as it contained a great deal of technical and entrepreneurial environmental changes.

The most important thing is: technology to the inflection point.

If you look at the life cycle, technology will probably have a period from germination to maturity to recession. No matter how much a technology is, it will inevitably plunge into recession, and the cycle of technology seems to be getting shorter and faster, which means that the layout of the industry needs to be more and more frequent.

A less appropriate example is the mobile Internet. If we think of 1995 as the year of the Chinese Internet, then to mature around 2010, about 15 years, and if we will be from 2002 of GPRS business as the year of mobile Internet, then to 2013 mature, the entire development period of 11 years (in fact, should be shorter).

In fact, if we look at the mobile Internet as a technology, it's easy to see that its development is nearing maturity, and applications that derive purely from this technology (social, search, gaming) are already very rich. That means investing people need to be laid out before a recession. At this point, there are two good choices: first, to speed up the commercial application of the technology and, second, to develop a new technology--two ways of understanding Doug Leone earlier.

But in any case, we need to avoid further roots in purely technical applications, this is also talking about the entrepreneurial atmosphere in Hangzhou, the point of view: Just knocking code in the garage can knock out a Tencent or Baidu era has passed, the larger image of mobile Internet is not the internet itself, but mobile.

In consequence, Doug Leone's remarks are bound to have an impact on investors. We can't measure how much impact this amplification will have on American entrepreneurs, but it's bound to weaken a lot for Chinese entrepreneurs.

Partly because of China's regional differences, the partial bubble dissipation will not cause too much impact. Although technology has no borders, entrepreneurial capital and the environment are different. In China, the entrepreneurial atmosphere is the most strong in Beijing, China's outstanding mobile applications are quite part of this, while in the Yangtze River Delta, entrepreneurship is closer to life-related improvements, that is, the technical field of commercial applications; in the Pearl River Delta, the most obvious label for entrepreneurship is smart hardware, Shenzhen as the representative of the pioneering city called the Oriental Silicon Valley.

So, it's easy to see that Doug Leone's argument is more applicable to Beijing because it's more like America. Similarly, this means that the bubble itself has a limited impact, after all, in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta region, where the investment environment is relatively cautious, not as fast as Beijing.

On the other hand, Chinese investors are more resilient. This is not to say that Chinese investors are more bull, but that Chinese investors are starting to get more and more. Many successful entrepreneurs have begun to transform into investors, and many governments have done a lot of work in them, which means that the bubbles that can be propped up in China's environment are bigger. Although in the long run there will inevitably be a group of investors disappear, but in the short term can carry the risk.

So the question is: will this bubble surely burst? Will the bubble gradually stabilize with the change of the entrepreneurial direction? Will investors who are holding large sums of money waiting for a bubble to burst lose their chance by miscalculation? If the bubble bursts, which investors will die?

Well, everything seems to be unknown. But the only certainty is that entrepreneurs should turn.

(Author: Xu)