In the future, the three operators may still be in a difficult "throes"

The three major operators of the 2014 report, in line with previous market expectations, the three major operators have seen a significant decline in profitability, especially in mobile, net profit fell 6 consecutive quarters, 2014 net profit was the biggest decline in 16 years. In this regard, it is widely believed that with the disappearance of the telecom population dividend, as well as the impact of mobile internet technology, the three major operators will remain in a difficult "throes" for some time to come, and their profitability will continue to decline.

Net profit, revenue, user number is not optimistic

Earnings data show that China Mobile 2014 revenue of 641.4 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8%, net profit of 109.3 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year, China Unicom 2014 revenue 284.68 billion yuan, year-on-year decline of 3.5%, net profit 12.06 billion yuan, the year-on-year increase of 15.8% China Telecom 2014 revenue of 324.394 billion yuan, an increase of 0.9%, net profit of 17.68 billion yuan, an increase of 0.8%.

According to this calculation, the three major operators net profit last year amounted to 139.04 billion yuan, daily average earn 380 million yuan, lower than the 2013 434 million yuan, also lower than the first half of 2014, the three operators daily earn 419 million yuan figures. Industry said, from the earnings data can be seen, the three major operators profitability further decline.

Revenue, compared with 2013, the three major operators in 2014 revenue growth has slowed, China Unicom even a negative revenue. The latest figures from the Ministry of Information show that February, the three major operators revenue growth continued to decline. Industry forecasts, combined with the above data, the three major operators 2015 revenue situation is not optimistic.

The number of users, the three major operators 2014 years of user growth is not satisfactory. 2014, the number of Chinese telecom users grew only 40,000 households, the first half of the year also showed a large loss of users, China Mobile in 2014, although the user growth of 34.93 million households, but the year-on-year growth of only 5.1%, and 2013 China Mobile users increased by 8% per cent year-on-year.

The telecom population dividend has vanished

It is noteworthy that, although the revenue and profits are still far more than China Telecom and Unicom, but China Mobile's net profit has been a sharp decline, causing a particular concern of the industry as a whole. China Mobile's net profit fell 12% in the fourth quarter of 2014, the net profit fell by China Mobile for 6 consecutive quarters, while China Mobile's net profit fell 10.2% in the year to 2014, not only for two consecutive years, but also for the biggest drop in net profits in the past 16 years, according to earnings figures.

Although the results did not clearly explain the reasons for the sharp decline in China Mobile net profit, but most analysts in the industry that 2014 China Mobile vigorously into the 4G construction, excessive capital expenditure is the main reason for its 2014 net profit slump. In early 2014, China Mobile said that the 2014 planned capital expenditure of 225.2 billion yuan, 4G construction accounted for the proportion of total capital expenditure 33%, about 75 billion yuan. Industry analysis pointed out that, because China Mobile in the 3G ERA network at a disadvantage, so early decided to focus on the development of 4G, the continuous years of substantial investment, resulting in high capital expenditure, resulting in a sharp decline in net profits.

But there are also insiders believe that the 3G era China Mobile did not complete the transition from voice business to traffic business, the current period of contraction of the performance is not surprising. A securities and telecommunications industry analyst to the economic Reference newspaper reporter introduced, 2014 China Unicom, the Chinese telecom basically realized from the voice business to data business transformation. In China Unicom, for example, in 2011, the mobile business voice business revenue accounted for as much as 48.7%, 2012, the non-voice business has exceeded 50%, up to 53.1%. 2012, China Unicom 3G user monthly data flow also more than 200M, and China Mobile to 2014 non-voice income still not more than 50%. "China Mobile is still in the 2G ERA in terms of revenue composition, user size and ARPU value." China Mobile is also in the throes of a shift in voice to data services. "TMT industry senior analysis Shizeng such evaluation.

Ma Jihua, an independent telecoms analyst, said that in terms of the number of users, the telecom population dividend had disappeared, mobile phone penetration was already high, and operators ' access to new users was difficult, while the decline in profitability of the three operators was also related to the decline in the service unit price of the telecom industry. From the current trend of the industry, the telecommunications industry, such as the flow rate of service prices downward trend. In 2014, for example, the three major operators lowered their traffic packages and overseas roaming charges.

"The original three operators can rely on the rapid growth of users to offset the impact of the decline in service unit prices, but now the telecom population dividend disappears, so the trend of income growth slowed down is particularly obvious." Ma Jihua explains.

Communications industry observer, flying Elephant Network President Xiang said, the current telecom new users decline, growth space has become smaller, the current growth of space is mainly concentrated in rural remote areas, the key cities have become saturated. In revenue and profits, Xiang that in order to enhance the customer experience, the three major operators in some remote areas of investment and output is not proportional, which also affects the three major operators of income and profits.

As for the impact of the increase in the telecom industry on the net profit of the three operators, Ma Jihua said that in the long run, the impact will gradually be eliminated, the three major operators will gradually become stronger tax credit.

Market enters the era of "stock competition"

It is noteworthy that the three major operators in the 2014 earnings, invariably referred to the "stock competition", that the market competition in the gradual entry into the "Stock competition" era, the corresponding market competition will be further intensified.

China Mobile reported that the basic operators to the stock and flow-oriented homogeneous competition further intensified, the future competition will tend to diversify, the market structure is more complex; China Unicom reported that the future of the traditional user-oriented development space is narrower, the development mode is from incremental expansion to adjust stock, do excellent increment coexist China Telecom reported that the domestic communication industry is becoming saturated, and market competition has gradually entered the era of stock competition.

Industry forecasts that the performance of the three major operators in 2015 may still continue to decline. In addition to the "stock competition" factors, the three major operators will continue to maintain high investment in the 4G area, while the mobile internet technology impact, voice, SMS and other traditional business income will continue to decline.

Public information shows that China Mobile will invest 72.2 billion yuan in 2015 for 4G Construction, China Telecom will invest 61 billion yuan. Although China Unicom has not yet announced the 2015 4G construction input, but the industry is expected to scale far beyond the 2014 level, and China Telecom is expected to be flat. This means that the growth of the three operators will be under great pressure under the condition of huge capital expenditure.