In those years, the three bad assumptions of the black man's lame

John Gruber, he probably only "enjoyed" a hodgepodge of rumors about Apple-and, again and again, he crushed a bunch of apple-shattering news through intelligent analysis.

Obviously, Apple is 108,000 miles away. In fact, it is the opposite of what has become the most profitable company in the history of the quarter. And the analysts who Gruber ridiculed were not only ridiculously wrong, but also lost millions of dollars to their clients.

However, some people think that Apple is just Huko death throes. One afternoon when I talked to people about Apple's stunning sales performance in China, it was surprising that their focus was still on the question of how Apple should deal with millet. By contrast, no matter where Google is going, people think it will be a landslide, just like Microsoft did ten years ago.

You may not think so, but I can cite an example: Apple's earnings have been slashed in the last quarter by the dollar's rise, and the exchange rate has reduced Apple's revenue by about 5%, or about 3.73 billion. But the amount it has lost is just over $2.83 billion trillion in revenue from Google's last quarter. Even so, Google is still a fearsome giant in people's minds, and Apple is a dangerous wall that is not known when it will fall.

In an earlier article I tried to explain why people knew about Apple's mistakes, I put it down to people's over-reliance on models and managers ' syndrome: bad assumptions lead to bad conclusions, and bad conclusions as another assumption of bad results, like dominoes, The broad analysis and assumptions about Apple are ultimately based on these faulty derivatives.

-The first bad assumption: to consider the market as a whole

If you look at the market from a holistic perspective, simple mathematical calculations suggest that the more parts that make up the larger the impact on the results. According to current income distribution, the people who have no money in the market are the majority, and they will give priority to the price. Therefore, the overall market analysis concluded that all consumers will first consider the price.

In practice, however, the unequal distribution of income divides the market, and other demographic or psychological reasons also divide the market into disparate parts. No matter which market, there are rich people and the pursuit of a better experience of the people, these two groups are often coincident, just constitute Apple's customer base.

-The second bad assumption: consumers only care about speed, advertising and price

Last night I saw the old Apple on Twitter and it was just a win over a customer's ad. People who are tricked into buying Apple products are idiots, but I don't think so, said the person implicitly. It is not the irrationality of people, but the rational choices they make after weighing the price.

In some ways, Apple really spares no effort to spend time and resources, from buying to unpacking, to scrolling through web pages. Many programmers may not understand why they encapsulate apps, but it's a great relief for those who are afraid of the virus, who have never dared, or have not installed, applications. Apple Stores everywhere offer free support, although you never need to, but this warm blanket is always there for you. Staring at Apple's three times times the price of a typical phone, people rarely pay attention to these free intimate. For the user, feeling is the most real experience: it is more important to feel that you are not stupid than the actual level of wisdom, and to be helped when you need help, there is the feeling of omnipotence.

-The third bad hypothesis: Apple says it's just about playing the best product.

Apple executives have been changing the format, repeating what Tim Cook said on the conference call: "Apple's goal is to make the best products on earth and enrich people's lives." "Is the Apple's secret so simple, incredibly simple?" But it really hides the company's strategy and direction, and the root cause of the strategy's eventual success.

But the reaction of the market has made Cook's words so convincing. If you believe, as I do, that there is a group of people in this market who are not bound by the lowest price, and that they value the quality of the product more than just a single digit, then you should also believe that the group is willing to pay for a substantial price in order to gain the best experience. From this point of view, Apple's goal of making the best products is the same as the market opportunities.

So now I ask you, should Apple be concerned about making more money, or do you care about making better products?

The answer is of course the latter, and they did.