Inflation expectations rise four quarter price level will be increasing now

Wu Ting A few consecutive months of negative price growth in China, which makes deflation a concern, and the current amount of credit and the rise in international commodity prices have exacerbated expectations of inflation risk.　　Experts say the macro-control policy should pay close attention to the increasingly approaching inflation risk.　　Inflation expectations strengthen the National Bureau of Statistics, the General division of the recent article that, although the current price level is still low, but because of the early increase in monetary credit, the international and domestic market primary product prices generally rise, the public on the next stage of potential inflation expectations have increased. The article believes that, from the international market, the main stock index, oil, nonferrous and other primary products prices have increased significantly, if the state continues, it may increase the pressure of China's input-type inflation. June 9 Brent crude oil price of 68.8 U.S. dollars/Barrel, a 2008-year minimum price rose 104.9%. In the domestic market, resources, asset class prices may rise further.　　According to the Shanghai Metal Futures Exchange, the current 1-month-per-month weighted average price for zinc, aluminium and copper is up 39.7%, 8.6% and 33.7%, respectively, from the lowest point of 2008. Zhang Yongjun, a researcher at the Ministry of Economic forecasting at the National Information Center, told reporters that the push for inflation also included an increase in the money supply, in response to the financial crisis, including the United Kingdom, the United States and other countries to inject money into the market greatly increased.　　Inflation in the final analysis of the monetary phenomenon, especially in the United States, the base of a large base currency, although the velocity of money is slowing, but once the economy began to recover, the liquidity will be very substantial, will bring a lot of input inflationary pressure on our country.　　And the price, May China's consumer price index year-on-year decline of 1.4%, although the CPI has remained negative year-on-year, but to remove the seasonal factors, the chain is growing, the bottom of the price drop has passed. When inflation will come at a time when inflation is approaching, said Jing Ulrich, managing director of JPMorgan Chase, "inflation is likely to return in the second half because of the higher base last year."　　She points out that China's imports of commodities have generally hit new highs over the past few months. Guotai Securities that the second half of 2009, China's CPI will gradually rebound to more than 0, will not occur high inflation, but there are realistic inflationary expectations.　　Do not exclude the 2010 "class stagflation", that is, GDP growth downward, CPI upward phenomenon, mainly in the external demand impact sustained, the financial policy incremental contribution to reduce the real estate price "irrational prosperity", easy credit policy, and so on, may be in the second half of 2010. Zhu Jianfang, chief macro economist of Citic Securities, judged that the current price of China is about to enter the rising cycle, the first half of 2009, the Chinese economy was in deflation, the third quarter of deflation may be the end of the second or third quarter, price level will hit the bottom, the fourth quarter price level will be significantly positive growth CICC report Analysis, China 2010 CPI inflation will rise significantly to 3.3%-5.1% 3.5%-5.0%,2011 years.