Inflation is still far away and the dollar has rebounded

Commodities crossroads of the second financial crisis, the jittery of various types of investment to investors bow, but gold and the city blooming fascinating light.　　However, in the bubble of the market, deflation worries heating up, the previous collective bullish voice also began to appear some inconsistent views.　　Gold bears long profit back to spit pressure gold mining services company (G FM) said in a gold survey in April this year that gold could rise to 1100 dollars this year, propping up gold buying with worries about rising inflation, a possible dollar weakness and financial stability. Jinrui Futures Gold researcher Hou Cenqiang long-term bullish on gold, that the year 1000 dollars is certainly not a problem. "The market trend is repeatedly, especially in the rising, gold in the current position shocks, but also to go forward."　　"Hou Cenqiang's view is basically consistent with the majority in the market.　　However, a lot of people optimistic about the thousand-yuan pass behind the fact that there is not to be ignored: after the subprime crisis capital inflows to the excessive, these funds in the recovery period of earnings pressure, the need to flow into oil or non-ferrous metals, such as more benefit from the economic recovery of the commodity varieties. Asian investors are actually selling gold in the first quarter, while Western purchases have pushed the price up sharply, according to the World Gold Association, an industry group. Reporter observation found that the gold price in July 2008 to break the 900 U.S. dollar mark, this February and March again break through this hurdle. This is the time when the fund's net inflow of funds has been the fastest.　　When gold prices plunged, such as last October and November and this April, the funds were also selling heavily. Xuanbin, a commodities researcher at Wanda Futures, said the chances of breaking 1000 dollars per ounce were not high because the bulls were almost all profit-making at the current price, and the further rise in prices would be met with the vigor of the Bulls.　　In fact, this happened in the previous two gold prices touched 1000 dollars/ounces, the last March and April this year, the price reached 1000 U.S. dollars/ounces after 10% of the adjustment, and there are no other major factors to make the gold price such a big adjustment, profit return is the main factor.　　Inflation's support for gold or a pseudo proposition? In the gold trend of a bullish, the recent market repeatedly also began to let the market appeared some view empty views. The main factors affecting the gold market are inflation expectations, the depreciation of the dollar and supply and demand. In the current change in supply and demand is not the case, the recent dominant market is inflation expectations, the dollar depreciation.　　However, after a period of digestion, the market suddenly found that inflation is far away, the dollar index also rebounded sharply earlier this week. Xuanbin, a commodities researcher at Wanda Futures, has boldly predicted that inflation's support for gold is a false proposition. He said the two had a very strong correlation 2006 years ago after comparing the price of C R B with gold and the US CPI, but after that inflation did not increase to a high, but the C R B index and gold prices both hit new highs. So he argues that the main reason for the rise in commodities in recent years is notInflation expectations, but more than 2006 years after the Fed's constant interest rate cuts and the increase in the amount of liquidity brought about by the increased flow of goods to the thrust.　　Therefore, inflation on gold is a false proposition, market liquidity is more to be concerned about. The Wall Street Journal Network columnist Brett A Rends bluntly that bubbles usually start in a reasonable bull market, and he would not be surprised if the gold markets became the next bubble.　　Historically, every time the economy emerges from recession, the probability of a fall in gold is higher, as a large outflow of safe havens will put a huge strain on gold. Newspaper reporter Liu Yang