Institutions generally expect new loans to drop to $300 billion in October

Four lines in October, back to the role of the lending force, the report. Due to the regulatory authorities on banking risk control and capital adequacy requirements, as well as seasonal factors, many institutions predicted that the October added renminbi loans in the 300 billion yuan level, compared with September, there is a substantial decline.　　However, given that the trade surplus and inflows of foreign capital have warmed up since September, the money supply will continue to grow at a high rate, which is expected to be close to 30% per cent year-on-year in October M2. Many agencies believe that the slowdown in credit growth in October does not affect the continued high growth in the money supply, mainly because of the rebound in surpluses and hot money inflows that have pushed up foreign-exchange payments.　　Some agencies expect the central bank to increase the amount of open market recovery in the next two months, but that does not mean a big shift and tightening of monetary policy. In an interview with the economic reference newspaper, many economists or institutions were inclined to predict the median value of new loans in October at 300 billion yuan.　　Only CICC deviated from this forecast, CICC recently issued a macroeconomic weekly forecast that October new loans will be significantly reduced to 150 billion yuan to 200 billion yuan. According to the Economist, the economic reference newspaper, four state-owned banks in the construction of workers and workers in October to regain the role of the main lending, October, the new renminbi loans of about 136 billion yuan, although the absolute amount of decline than last month, but the market share has risen sharply. Among them, the Bank of China added RMB 44 billion yuan loan, The bank's first three quarters of new loans were 1,051,746,000,000 yuan, loans increased to the top four lines, the construction bank added RMB 36.4 billion yuan loans, the bank's first three quarters of new loans 879.633 billion yuan, ICBC new renminbi loans of about 33 billion yuan, the bank of new loans in the first three quarters of 927.6 billion yuan;　　200 million yuan.　　In view of the recent sustained high growth in the money supply, CICC judged that the central bank could increase the amount of money to be recycled in the next two months because the base currency would rise markedly. Agencies interviewed by the economic reference newspaper believe that high inflation is not the result of higher currency growth. Although the general economic theory holds that inflation is a monetary phenomenon, mainly due to the excessive issuance of currency.　　But some economists believe that the high rate of domestic money supply this year will not lead to high inflation next year. "In line with the strong growth in the money supply since this year, it is expected that inflation could be a simplistic and mechanized mistake in 2010," he said. "Wang Qing, chief economist at Morgan Stanley Asia, argues that the strong growth in broad M2 this year has overestimated the real pace of currency expansion by not counting the changes in the allocation of household assets in cash and equities. An estimate of the adjusted M2 increase (which can realistically reflect related economic activity) is significantly lower than the generalized M2 increase. Second, overall weaker export growth could be an alternative indicator of China's output gap and will continue to constitute a powerful constraint on inflationary pressures。 Morgan Stanley believes the current policy stance can be maintained until the end of the year. Tightening policies such as reserve ratios and benchmark interest rates are unlikely to be introduced until the middle of 2010.