Institutions generally forecast foreign trade or current inflection point July export material fell sharply

Guo Lichen will be released in Tuesday by the General Administration of customs, the July import and export data, due to the previously widely estimated annual trade "before the high and low" trend of concern.　　If the data show that both imports and exports fell sharply in July, it proved that June was indeed an inflection point for export blowout. A spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, Yao Jian, told the first financial daily in a regular press conference that the next stage of uncertainty in the external demand market is particularly large, which is the biggest problem facing the external environment.　　In the second half, because the base is high, the export will appear growth rate drop. The agency interviewed by this newspaper generally predicted that China's export growth rate in July was significantly decreased, and the impact of external demand weakness had begun to appear.　　and domestic policies to curb credit and real estate overheating are becoming more effective, making it widely judged that imports will fall further.　　The industry's comprehensive judgment is that the July surplus will remain high, as imports may fall faster than exports. PMI indicators reveal signs after the international financial crisis, China's foreign trade exports continued to decline, to last year in November, December began to recover, there is positive growth. And began in the second half of last year, especially in the three or four quarter of foreign trade recovery momentum, pulling up the second half of this year's year-on-year base.　　Based on the background of such a base effect, Yao said last month that the Ministry of Commerce judged that foreign trade would appear "before and after Low" this year. In the view of Wanguo Chief macro analyst Li Huiyong, the reason for export may come down, on the one hand is the cancellation of export tax rebate, the disappearance of the surprise export factor.　　June 22, the state Ministry of Finance and the general Administration of Taxation issued a joint "on the cancellation of some goods export tax rebate Notice", starting from July 15, the cancellation of 406 kinds of goods export tax rebate. On the other hand, due to the weakening of peripheral market demand. The export order index in China's manufacturing PMI has fallen for two consecutive months. In July, he predicts, exports grew by 29.1% per cent, down 14.8% per cent from last month.　　Generally speaking, the new export order index is 3 months ahead of the export. From China's export container transport market data, although the Mediterranean route due to advance into the transport season in June, the volume of July is relatively weak; but on the basis of the June hot quotes, in July, mid-North American volume growth is still more obvious, the European volume of stability in the rise.　　However, in late July, the container freight has been loosened, which may be affected by the adjustment of Export tax rebate policy, on the other hand, and the freight rate is already in high "up".　　Accordingly, Societe Generale chief economist Lu Commissar forecasts that exports year-on-year growth will fall into the 34.2%~38.2% range, median 36.2%, a sharp decline of 7.7% compared with June.　　This also and Huatai joint Securities analyst Chen, Zhangjing judgment consistent: As the synchronization index of China's export container Freight index is still high, is expected to export chain will be stable, but the year-on-year growth rate is affected by the base period will fall. Tightening up export pressure in Europe the complexity of the international economic environment has been regarded as the main wind of economic growth in the second half of the yearRisk。　　Expectations of an uncertain outlook for the European debt crisis, as well as the continuing weakness of the US economy, have seriously affected China's export growth. According to the latest report of the Bank of Communications Finance Research Center, in the second half of 2010, exports, while facing the European debt crisis and the impact of the renminbi appreciation, are expected to maintain the recovery momentum. However, after the European debt crisis, countries around the world, especially Europe, began to tighten their finances, which would make it less likely that the future would rely on fiscal stimulus to support the global economic recovery.　　After the completion of the inventory cycle in developed countries, the pace of recovery in the global economy will slow again, not excluding the pressure for restocking, which will put pressure on China's export growth, which is unsustainable.　　The surplus is expected to remain high this month as the agency generally expects imports to fall faster than exports.　　Ha Jiming, chief economist of China's International Finance Corporation, predicts that the gradual weakening of export orders in foreign trade has slowed the year-on-year growth of exports to 38% per cent in July, while imports have fallen to 30% per cent year-on-year, and the trade surplus will climb to $22.3 billion trillion in aggregate. For the year's trade surplus, Wang Tao, China's chief economist for UBS Securities, predicts export growth will recede from the third quarter as growth slows in the US and Europe, but that growth in real exports will continue to grow faster than imports over the remainder of the year. A small appreciation of the renminbi, a weaker euro and more austerity measures in Europe will have a negative impact on China's export situation this year. In 2010, exports are expected to achieve growth of around 24% per cent in dollar terms. As import prices grow faster, imports in US dollars are expected to outpace exports, so the 2010 trade surplus will shrink, but still sizeable.