Institutions generally forecast June new loans exceeding 1 trillion yuan

Economic Watch network reporter Deng Meiling jie Vechengwu loose monetary policy brought by the credit blowout still continued. Macro-Analysts at several well-known brokerages and banks expect June new loans to exceed 664.5 billion trillion yuan in May and will remain above 1 trillion.　　And for the second half of the credit, analysts said the second half will change, but the overall remain relaxed environment.　　The reasons for the big increase in lending in June include a rise in lending enthusiasm among small and medium-sized banks after a cut in capital, a rebound in the housing market and a sprint in the bank's semi-annual underwriting performance. 6 of the 9 research institutions surveyed by the Economic Observer Network's monthly macroeconomic data forecasts predict that new loans will exceed $1 trillion in June.　　The maximum forecast value of 9 institutions is 1.3 trillion yuan, the minimum forecast is 900 billion yuan, the median value is 1.0566 trillion yuan. At present, the new loans in June trillion has become the consensus of most institutions, for this phenomenon, Galaxy Securities analyst Zhang Xinha said, from the current delivery structure, small and medium-sized joint-stock bank loan share increased.　　In fact, in the first quarter of this year, most of the big investment projects were seized by state-owned banks, small and medium-sized banks were squeezed outside the door, but with the reduction of capital, more and more local government projects were robbed by small and medium-sized banks, so the enthusiasm for lending increased.　　Guotai, a macroeconomic analyst at the securities Market, argues that credit growth in June was also due to the fact that, in June, the 2 quarter was the final January, and bank lending was generally expanded to ensure performance, according to past bank mortgage practices in previous years. Macro-source Securities, macro analyst Chen Menggen said, the central third group of investment 70 billion gradually issued to promote government projects related to lending, local government projects and supporting funds required to the rapid growth of local bank lending.　　At the same time, June credit may also be affected by late-season appraisals and fears of tighter credit policy in the second half. Societe Generale's senior economist Lu Commissar is relatively more "rational". He said in the report, unless there is better local project reserves, take advantage of the project capital down on the issue of credit, banks may not be the end of the season "dash." Because the release of loans will be corresponding to the withdrawal of provisions, which would constitute the current period of profit reduction; At present, the National Audit Commission, the CBRC and other departments are strengthening the credit whether illegal delivery, whether to enter the real economy to check, pure "Chong time" will be faced with huge regulatory risks, Some institutions have taken the initiative to lend carefully after the credit has been set for completion early in the year, and the liquidity pressures caused by the IPO shocks will also constrain some financial institutions ' credit exposure to some extent.　　Therefore, Societe Generale expects June new credit will exceed May, is expected to reach 7000.9 trillion, median 800 billion. Benefiting from loose monetary policy and the 4 trillion stimulus package, new loans for the renminbi continued to rise at a high level in 2009. The first quarter of this year, the new loan volume amounted to 4.58 trillion yuan, approaching last year's total of 4.91 trillion yuanThe amount of new loans is seen as an abnormal "expansion", not a sustainable norm. In April, new loans fell sharply, only to increase by 591.8 billion yuan, less than March 1.3 trillion (March new loans 1.89 trillion), the chain fell significantly 68.7%, which is the first time this year, new credit is lower than 1 trillion yuan.　　But after that, the volume of credit began to pick up again in May, but still below 1 trillion. For the second half of the credit trend, the attitude of the agency is also more consistent: before the high and low, but the overall remain loose is the overall pace of credit this year.　　Zhao, senior researcher at China Construction Bank, said that the vast majority of credit currently invested is still not in the real economy and the capital is plentiful; most financial institutions have completed their annual new plans for higher growth and are more cautious in the second half of the year, based on risk considerations. Aloft, a senior financial analyst at the Bank of communications, said that although the increase would fall as regulators tightened guidelines and banks volunteered to adjust the pace of delivery, they would continue to grow faster, driven by continued government investment, capital adjustment and a rebound in the real estate market. Analyst detailed forecast data (in alphabetical order). Image source: Economic observation Network