International oil prices hit a two-year high domestic oil price adjustment is unlikely

Wang You since October 26, China's steam and diesel retail price increase of 230/ton, 220 yuan/ton, international crude oil prices continue to rise. Yesterday, the international oil price has been pulled up to nearly 90 U.S. dollars/barrel position, a 2-year high, the domestic oil prices of the adjustment pressure increasing.　　However, a number of analysts said that because the level of prices is still high, so the NDRC's recent increase in oil prices is unlikely. China Chemical Network Information director Liu Xintian told the first financial daily, November WTI crude oil price rose 3.46 U.S. dollars/barrel, or 4.31%. December 3 New Zealand's crude oil futures price has reached $89.19/barrel, the highest in 2 years.　　Ching, the first venture analyst, argues that global oil inventories are also falling because of tight global gasoline markets, which could be the start of a structural bull market in crude oil.　　The steady rise in crude oil prices has made some oil traders and consumers look forward to the adjustment of domestic oil prices. In fact, according to China's refined oil pricing mechanism-international market crude oil for 22 consecutive working days moving average price changes more than 4%, can adjust the domestic refined oil prices, domestic steam, diesel price Adjustment window should be opened as early as 2 weeks ago. "Liu Xintian said.　　Earnings December 6, the current Brent, Dubai, Sinta and other three crude oil weighted average rate of change has been as high as 6.23%, greatly exceeding the 4% price adjustment red line. However, even if the international oil price is so high, the possibility of the recent adjustment of domestic steam and diesel prices is not big. National Gold Securities researcher Liubo said that when the international crude oil price is higher than 80 U.S. dollars per barrel, [the government will] start to deduct processing profit margin, until the processing of 0 of the profit calculation of oil prices. This also shows that, as long as the 80-dollar sensitive area, the NDRC will slow down the price adjustment, lengthen the price adjustment cycle. "Now, the domestic 7 yuan/liter about 97th gasoline price is not low." It is clear that the government is under greater pressure to continue to raise prices. "In addition, from late September to November, the domestic oil supply tight problem in the early December had a considerable relief, Alibaba, the latest research on the price database of chemical products, the current domestic steam, diesel emissions are obvious, and wholesale and retail prices are back to rational." Recently, most of the northern market was affected by fog, transport resistance, so the market demand for diesel has fallen markedly.　　South China market due to hot gasoline, diesel excess, resulting in a number of PetroChina, Sinopec's regional wholesalers adopt tying method to sell oil (purchase a ton of petrol tying a ton of diesel). The bigger reason why the steam and diesel oil is not easy to adjust the price is that the government has strengthened its control over prices.　　A fund researcher, who declined to be named, told the newspaper that the recent price bureaus in Henan, Hebei and Jiangsu have suspended the adjustment of city gas prices, which means that the price of refined oil will likely be difficult to upgrade in December. CIC Securities researcher Redingkun also said the next round of gas and diesel prices may be accompanied by fine-tuning of refined oil pricing mechanism. This newspaper has previously reported thatThe government may shorten the "22-day" adjustment cycle. Some media said that the price adjustment cycle may be changed to "10 to 14 working days."　　"In fact, the development and Reform Commission to hold down the price of steam and diesel oil may be that next year after New Year's Day and before the spring Festival, crude oil prices may be transported, the suspension of construction projects, the withdrawal of some speculative funds show a decline, then the price of refined oil pressure will ease." However, Liubo also believes that in the future the government may need to consider the following two points: when crude oil prices to 80 U.S. dollars/barrels above, how to make Sinopec needs to import large quantities of crude oil enterprises in the refining business as far as possible, while the domestic oil prices are not too high.