Internet industry Bubbles: Whether the number of users is directly related to profit

When the last Internet winter came, it was not clear why the winter had come so fast, or how long it would have lasted that winter. Of course, even less careful is what causes this winter to come.

Some people conclude that investment is overheating, and any. com website can easily sell a large price. Some websites are even online one day and are bought by investors. In fact, investing in overheating is the external manifestation of the affair, leading to the incentive to invest in overheating, few people are willing to reveal. The reason is to use fixed standards to http://www.aliyun.com/zixun/aggregation/4581.html "> Internet users to apply the value model, and then to calculate the value of the site."

For example, there is a theory that the portal has a single user value of 5000 dollars, which is an astonishing number, but the problem is only in theory, no one in human history has ever really dug this value out. So, according to the user value theory, a lot of investment and hot money poured into the future. But the real result is that few sites can really produce profits, and there is a general lack of profitability, and that 5000 dollars is still in theory.

In recent years, the theory of user valuations has begun to be grounded and less grandiose. For example, just on-market Twitter, where a single user is valued at $110 trillion, and the total number of Twitter users X110 dollars, is the company's total value. But after Twitter's IPO, SEC chairman Marie White warned investors that technology companies may have nothing to do with profits, and investors should not be fooled by the number of attractive users.

The SEC President is, of course, afraid of the bursting of the tech bubble, which has been around for 10 years since the last winter. The current technology stocks do have a certain bubble exists, is still in a reasonable state, she was afraid of Twitter after the high price of a new round of bubble formation, speculative atmosphere after the collapse of the technology stocks, then to the investors bad account, so as an insider point open window paper, let investors judge themselves.

In the Internet industry, in addition to the fact that the value of the user is disconnected from the reality of social knowledge, the more serious problem is how the practitioner declares the number of users, and how the investors look at the number of users. If the last winter has caused the bubble of user value to be punctured, the next winter comes, the number of users will be a bubble.

The reality is that, before winter arrives, the Internet industry's hundreds of millions of-user figures are dizzying. If a website claims to have 10 million users, it could be a small web site, and perhaps fewer than 1 million people are really active. But for web operators and investors, the position on numbers is clearly different. What investors need to know is the number of users who are really active and want to generate revenue, while the site's operators tend to provide large numbers of users to investors and try to convince investors that these are assets.

This is a packaging-related story, but also a difficult to break the reality of the distortion field, countless misunderstandings will be generated. Mr White has a very good analogy for the number of users in the Twitter prospectus, saying: "The section describing the user is like a grocery store owner taking inventory, and the boss doesn't mention" where the customer came from and how much money they spent. " “

Behind the huge number of users hides the investor's demand for the real situation of the user's quality, but this evaluation index has not been developed yet. Relying on the technology industry itself, it is not too much power to sit on the number of users, this only rely on the capital market to develop a set of evaluation system, such as the number of users of virtual cloud, and the number of active users as the most important evaluation indicators.

If only this index, QQ has 300 million users, micro-letter has 240 million users, Sina Weibo has 50 million users, Sohu News client has 20 million users, these are real users, according to their respective industries and provide services, respectively, to set the actual real value. Perhaps it is time for the next lesson to come when the internet takes a more pragmatic approach to user identification, and does not dare to preach flashy total numbers of users. This round of the total number of users to set the value of the Mystery Bureau, will eventually go into history.

The future of the Internet development pattern, especially mobile Internet, is bound to take a quality development road. The first thing to do is skim the water and bubbles. The casual interpretation of a large number of users is, in fact, a clever trick for investors. It is becoming increasingly unnecessary for increasingly savvy investors. The internet should, for this reason, give investors their due sincerity.