Interpretation of the Internet Electronic Business Times logistics: Courier is only a corner of the demand

The end of 2010 E-commerce, in a special way to let all eyes on the logistics industry. "Business Value" magazine publisher Liu Jinming's article has a very appropriate analogy: "2010 domestic E-commerce hot, before the arrival of the new year was severely trampled a brake." by whom? Of course is not keep up with the logistics services.

Unmet demand appears in such an abrupt way that it usually means a turning point in an industry that has mutated. Because the Chinese logistics car is changing its engine at the moment-from a manufacturing drive to an E-commerce drive.

Logistics from to B turn to C

My vision, the earliest accurate prediction of this trend is not the logistics industry, but Alibaba. 3 years ago, I asked Alibaba Group "Chief of Staff" Zeng his views on logistics, he succinctly replied: "We think the logistics from to B to C." ”

China's modern logistics industry began in the late 90 's, in the new century just arrived, "treasure for Logistics" story in the logistics industry almost everyone knows, is about a private logistics enterprises how to provide a manufacturing enterprise such as Procter and gamble the whole process of logistics services to achieve success. Now, the protagonist of the story--the owner of the treasure is already a billionaire's National People's Congress representative, the National logistics industry organizations look forward to resolving the legal issues are to be through him to form a proposal. In the past more than 10 years, there are many similar logistics enterprises to develop in a similar way. It can be said that in the past more than 10 years, the manufacturing industry is the main driving force to bring about the logistics industry today.

However, by 2010, another company became China's first private logistics enterprise that ran over tens of billions of dollars, it is shun Fung. In fact, Shun Fung's growth over the last 1 years exceeded the total size of the treasure for more than 10 years. And that growth basically comes from what Zeng called "to C." It not only gave birth to shun Fung, but also created a total scale has been more than hundreds of billions of logistics enterprise groups.

However, why from to B to C, a stronger engine, logistics instead of "foot on the brakes"?

Because from to B to C, not only simple demand transfer, but dozens of times times, and even a hundredfold demand amplification. An easy to understand example: a typical convenience store that buys at least 1000 people a day. Support this day's store sales, only need every night distribution center to the store for a distribution is enough. However, if 1% of the consumer demand transfer to the online shopping, it will take 10 times to the household distribution. One to the shop freight car distribution cost is about 50 yuan, one to the household distribution cost is about 5 yuan, 10 times also just good is 50 yuan. In other words, for the logistics industry, E-commerce accounted for the share of social retail sales increased by 1%, distribution services revenue opportunities will be increased by 100%. The actual situation will be more complicated than this, so I Taobao order data to do the calculation, to arrive from B to C logistics needs of the amplification multiplier is about 70 times times.

Any car that suddenly changes to a 70 times-horsepower engine is too much. The transmission, the chassis, the circuit each subsystem cannot adapt. It's natural to slam on the brakes, and I'm afraid it's more than one foot. For the current logistics system, warehouses, facilities, personnel and even the system and other major resources are mainly run in the traditional industry demand environment, any one of the key resource updates need time.

If according to Ma's estimate, 5 years of E-commerce can exceed the total social retail sales of 15%, will create more than 300 billion of the new logistics services market, at least can be pregnant, to accommodate 350 logistics companies listed.

"Platform type" and "Product type"

So, what kind of logistics companies do E-commerce need?

To Shun Fung, EMS-led courier services, of course, the first. But the e-commerce needs of logistics services, far more than express, because we are not only to buy books and shirts online, it is only the beginning of the internet shopping story, we have to buy flowers, crabs, double beds, refrigerators, air-conditioning and even imported cars. These are not express can provide services, but the need for cold chain logistics, less-than-Truckload Express (less-than-truck-load by, refers to the consignment of a number of times a small quantity of goods, not enough or occupy a freight car wagon or a transport vehicle transport in the economy is not cost-effective, And by the transport sector arrangements and other consignments of goods assembled after the transport, large logistics, special transport and so on a variety of logistics professional services. In fact, express can only be suitable for a small number of product distribution needs.

From the seller's point of view, he not only need someone to distribute, but also need someone to order processing, warehouse sorting, labeling, long-distance transportation and the end of the distribution of the whole country organically connected together, in order to quickly and accurately realize the needs of consumers. This is not usually the service provided by express companies, because the charm of express delivery through the standard beat to achieve overnight distribution efficiency, it is difficult for each enterprise customized personalized service.

We can think of the former service as a variety of "logistics products", the latter service as a integration of various features of the "logistics platform." Logistics companies for E-commerce services can be simply divided into "platform type" and "Product Type".