Interview with Zhu Ping, deputy general manager of GF Fund: The watershed of the stock market adjustment: The second half of economic boost

High-end dialogue "there will be two turning points in the stock market this year. "Zhu Ping deputy general manager of the company in the second half of 2009 investment strategy report during the interview, said that the two transitions will be adjusted by a connection, the size of the lifting of the size and liquidity changes may make the market more volatile."　　He predicted that the economic structure after the economic recovery will form a new equilibrium, so the theme of hot spots, real estate, automobiles, new energy, environmental protection and energy conservation, chemical and so on are noteworthy topics. Year-on-year figures will be on a quarterly basis, "the economy has reached the bottom, this has been recognized, the industry is controversial is the bottom of the trend." Zhu Ping said that March or April from microscopic research showed that the European and American orders began to recover, outside the bottom of the trough has been, China's manufacturing Purchasing managers index (PM I) in March or April continuously surpass the 50% rise and Fall watershed, respectively, 52.4% and 53.5%; from the quarterly report, income deterioration continues to increase,　　Profits fell 26% year-on-year, compared to 08 years year-on-year decline of 85.8% significantly improved, indicating that the economy entered a low price balance, business began to stabilize, a a-share profit worst state has passed. Zhu Ping that China's economy is in a strong rebound, long-term growth can be period. In terms of year-on-year figures, the 09 is showing a quarterly upward trend. The upward trend is difficult to reverse mainly at 3 levels: first, the real estate market, May is the traditional season, under the macroscopic warm wind will not be downward reversal; the second is fiscal policy, the two quarter will be the implementation of the "Quarterly", the chain growth is strong, all over will continue to reserve new projects;　　The early days of the volume of credit to the 09-year high credit balance is a foregone conclusion, the market valuation of the formation of a sustained drive, but the new strength is limited. As monetary release continues, deflation expectations will gradually be replaced by inflationary expectations. Zhu Ping that the policy balance is hard to grasp, and that the next asset bubble will be inevitable if the first 3 quarters are loose, or if they continue to relax after the economic deflation expectation has broken.　　In the three quarter of 2009, at least the number of deflation, after entering the four-quarter, with the decline in the base, deflation figures tend to ease. Recovery achieved, the end point is higher than now the stock market is in a sensitive period, for the outside world thinks the A-share valuation is too high, Zhu Ping disagree. In his view, the current valuation of the stock market is reasonable. From Blo O Berg statistics show that China's April market overall PE in the 20-25 times, and PB in the vicinity of 2.5 times times, the P & S 500 pe is about 15 times times, PB is nearly twice times, the Chinese market premium at a reasonable level. With the US market rebounding sharply from the bottom, China's advantage fade.　　According to the listed companies, the overall 09PE level is about 25 times times, and the PE level of steel, home appliances, machinery and finance is 20 times times below, while the valuation of building materials, electronic components and nonferrous metals is relatively good. "The stock market will have two transitions this year: aIs the first half of the stock market and economic Operation Lane; another is the second half of the economy driven by the rise, the two may be adjusted by a link. "Zhu Ping predicts that China's stock market will be affected by a number of factors: government investment, slowing external demand, US recovery and short-term inventory changes." Real estate performance is strong, if the trend continues, will start to pull the economy.　　The specific run path also needs to wait for data, and if the recovery is achieved, the end point may be higher than the current level. From empirical data, the rebound in the first year, the range will be more than 50%. The release of the size of the non-tradable and liquidity may cause greater volatility, risk and profitability. "Great bull market is the illusion of a high risk of small profits, so the structure is more important than the point." "Link Zhu Ping suggest: Catch the theme of the investment hotspot different recovery paths will provide different thematic investment opportunities." Zhu Ping predicts that in the transition to a new equilibrium, he is bullish on the following theme plates: Real estate and Automobiles are the two leading industries of China's economy.　　In a recovery, real estate can generally lead the upturn, and the general manufacturing industry is then once again basic industries and, finally, optional consumer goods. New Energy and environmental conservation, chemical industry has a policy investment opportunities and product prices rebound investment opportunities.　　In addition, in line with China's social development, economic transformation of the materials, technology and services sector has greater growth space.　　The industry integration opportunities that may be brought about by the ten-to-one long-term deployment of industrial planning can be duly concerned, with emphasis on the machinery industry. Resources and asset companies have investment opportunities under inflationary expectations.　　In addition, inflation has a certain stimulating effect on consumer goods. Benefit Europe and the United States rebound external demand theme.　　In Europe and the United States PM I index, consumer confidence in the three quarter of a sharp rise in the background, the United States and Europe replenishment inventory will be very fast, especially apparel textiles, consumer durables, electronic components, computer hardware and software, chemical industry, such as export-oriented enterprises. Newspaper reporter Xiaixiaoting Intern Zhang Yiqi