Introspection after the upheaval: does group buying still have a chance in China?

IS group buying a Ponzi scheme?

Until today, not many people can explain the problem, however, compared to such a pedantic and difficult problem, Groupon's vast number of investors can give a firm answer: Groupon is a capital scam, since the listing, the company's market value has shrunk by nearly 80%.

In China, after two years of vanity and deformity of the growth, recently finally returned to rationality, then, now the plight of it in China whether there is still a chance? What is the future of it?

Perhaps a foothold in reality, backtracking on its course of development, can help us find answers or at least part of the answer.

Things are changing.

From 2010 to 2012, Groupon, the originator of the deal, its turnover of 745 million, 4 billion and 4.2 billion dollars, this year's figure is likely to fall to 2.6 billion U.S. dollars, so far, the company's share price has fallen to 70%, the market value has shrunk by more than 13 billion U.S. dollars, Less than half of the takeover offer (USD 6 billion) that Google made in 2010.

In China, however, group buying is changing in a more shocking way. In the new year, China's group buying site took the lead in a layoff.

Thousand product net is accused after mass layoffs, "each branch company only few people, more than ten or twenty people", if the staff "not to leave automatically, do not give compensation". Gome's online layoffs have been more violent, so far, three layoffs have involved more than 400 people, before the university recruit more than 70% of college students were asked to retire.

However, the current focus on the downsizing trend has been brewing since the beginning of last year, in the undercurrent after a long time, the initial cold wind finally became a big storm.

2012, the United States Regiment network was exposed to layoffs more than 500 people, handle network technology department staff to lay off more than 40%, including litters Regiment, high Friends, group Treasure Network, including group purchase site has also been the news of layoffs.

More than just layoffs, there are more unusual things happening.

Since 2012, China's group buying industry has experienced unprecedented shocks, 24 coupons closed, Group F and High Friends merger, the failure of the IPO, investor and entrepreneur contradictions between large companies and small companies in the game, interspersed with countless insider and lace news.

A violent change unfolded in a silent manner.

A quick turn, straight down

From the original "http://www.aliyun.com/zixun/aggregation/35416.html" > Thousand-Regiment War, the lively, today by the layoffs, pay cuts, shut down and the transformation surrounded, group buying in China only experienced more than two years of time.

So what happened to the Chinese group buying in the meantime? What direction will the future develop? Let's look at three aspects of the data to see how it experienced such a roller coaster process.

Growth trends

Domestic group buying market scale from 2 billion yuan (2010) to increase to 11 billion yuan (2011), but 2012 years turnover is only 21.39 billion yuan, compared with the previous year, the increase is only 93%. Last year, the consumer to participate in group buying 465 million people, an increase of 45%, the customer unit price of 46.9 yuan, the year-on-year growth of only 34%.

Analysis of the data in the last three years, we will find that the group buying market has begun to slow down, in the past two years after the crazy growth, the group buying industry has entered a smooth growth period, for those who have been abnormal development of enterprises, this is tantamount to the biggest bad news.

Competitive environment

August 2011, the national group buying site in more than 5,000, by the end of 2012, the data plummeted to 2000 or so, including a large number of Taobao to point to the class group purchase site. The top ten group buying sites in 2012 accounted for 92.8% of total deals, meaning that almost 2000 of the group buys had to compete for the remaining 1.55 billion-dollar market.

Predictably, this will be the next 1-2 years, the group buying market competition will become increasingly white-hot, the market will also undergo a number of rounds of shuffling.

Profit

An awkward question is that there are not many group-buying sites in the country that make money in real sense. So far, only a full network, litters group and the United States network three group buying site claimed to be profitable, but careful analysis, we found that the so-called "profit" more or less there are problems.

Full net profit Although only 1 yuan way mainly relies on the simplification personnel, reduces the propaganda investment and so on the compression cost and so on way realizes, more main is, along with successively enters Jingdong Mall and gathers the cost-effective platform;

Last December, litters and the United States network announced the realization of millions of yuan and tens of millions of yuan profits, but the data show that the brand stores for the litters contributed more than 70% of the revenue, and the latter is mainly focused on cutting hard and the cost of manpower.

In all aspects of the situation, group buying sites in China may not be a good day. Perhaps, group buying in China has passed the "best of times", so how far from the "worst of times"?

General”

In a sense, in the current China's Internet and market environment, the simple purchase site is not clear the way ahead, and is not good to go.

As some say, group buying sites have a double risk of "long-term debt" and "short-term features", which is destined to be a cause that requires massive capital investment over a long period of time.

Before, in order to pursue the scale effect, occupy the market, rely on the irrational investment trend of the capital market, buy the website to tens of millions of dollars of investment in the blind and fanatical high-speed expansion, in this process, spell low price, enclosure, recruit, range dealers are common tricks, pure pursuit of speed and scale, has neglected to improve quality and ensure sustainable development.

The market grows, the data is more and more beautiful, but the hidden dangers are constantly exposed.

Product and service quality is not in place, the user experience is not good, the gross margin is too low, expand the market cost rising, these problems gradually exposed, let group buying website constantly into saliva and criticism among the interesting data is, 2012, group buying in the one or two-line market began to shrink, The three or four-line city group purchase turnover jumped more than 234% last year, accounting for more than 46% of the entire group buying market.

It is now the case that those impatient websites have died in the tide of the market, and those who have survived the electric-business sites that have to struggle for life and future are often the means of layoffs, pay cuts and third party cooperation in the name of "strategic transition".

The situation is that Chinese group buying is almost doomed, and it has been "general" by itself.

No choice

Long-standing, aggression has reached.

Last year, the cost of a cost-effective platform of up to 20.75 billion yuan, and the overall market size of the group is not inferior, then the future single group buy platform how to deal with this from the giant of Taobao?

One of the seven business groups Alibaba, with sufficient resources, platforms and advantages in the group buying market beats, at the same time, including Tencent, Jingdong, and other giants have shifted their gaze over.

War, is tantamount to Ishing, but cooperation, it is not tiger?

Group buying in the burning of money, and burning money quickly, buy money is not easy, and earn very little, then how many investors to join the game, but also willing to insist on how long to play this game? Once the investor's enthusiasm and support are lacking, China's group buying business will die without burial.

Under the internal, for domestic group buying sites, perhaps 2012 of years of upheaval is just the beginning, the "worst of times" may not come, but must consider the future of their own where?

Not to change, not to break, not to stand.

Perhaps, for China's group buying sites, this is their only comfort and proverbs, in addition, they have no more choice.