Investment observation: two times for the cause of nine

Group Yi Securities (Hong Kong) Research director of the Zengyongjin Hang Seng index two times this week to try to flush 19,000 resistance, it seems that 19,000 points in addition to temporarily become the market psychological resistance, the period refers to related and derivative activities, in the above level of influence also many, the formation of indices often close to this checkpoint, Will present a larger return to vomit pressure. 　　In fact, from the valuation calculation, the index, at 19,000, is equal to 17.5 times and 15 times times the 2009 and 2010 P/E ratios, while the two P/E ratios are based on the profit base of the revaluation of property and investment earnings this year and next year, with the belief that the price/earnings ratio will linger higher if the core profitability is measured. In fact, the tendency of the market to expect hyperinflation from the United States to come back in the next few years is an important factor in stimulating commodity prices and in some areas of the property market, such as Hong Kong. On the other hand, ample liquidity in financial markets, a continued decline in risk aversion and rising demand to hedge against dollar depreciation are the main reasons for the inflow of capital into higher venture capital markets. In the same direction, more and more investors are expected to expect the revaluation of property and investment in the second half of this year and next year to be improved by the rebound in property prices and the return of the investment market. 　　Therefore, the continued preference of the Hong Kong property market and the major global investment markets in the future will lead to a rationalization of the index at more than 17,000 per cent level. On the other hand, despite the uneven performance of the economic data between China and the United States, the market confidence and sentiment have continued to improve, and the focus has been on the better performance of the economic data, with recent data such as the May ISM manufacturing index, The monthly construction spending and the April housing Sales index were better than market expectations, in turn supporting the economy's vision of a turnaround in the second half.