Investment Watch: Capital flow indicators still benefit the stock market

The group Benefits Securities (Hong Kong) Research Department, Dongzeng, was driven by a big rise in U.S. stocks in Monday as a result of higher financial-banking stocks, with the index rebounding 3.66% from 17,186, with only a $51 billion deal in the market, reflecting a lack of active investment. The enthusiasm for the current market for economic recovery is clearly receding, due to the recent economic data released by the United States, the main reason for this is that the economic trend is not as optimistic as the market expected, especially as consumers ' confidence and the unemployment rate is not good, increasing investors ' worries about the contraction of US consumer activities in the second half of the year 　　This can be stabilized from the dollar, the period of oil prices fell sharply, reflected. On the other hand, the market is also worried about funding or starting to flow from the Asia-Pacific and Hong Kong stocks, according to Citi report, as of the week of Wednesday, the Asian Fund redemption amount of $365 million, the past three weeks, the net outflow amounted to 596 million U.S. dollars, the data to investors worried that the continued outflow However, if we concentrate on indicators related to the flow of capital to Hong Kong stocks, such as the three-month US interbank interest rate difference, there has not been any significant change until yesterday, and the spreads have hovered between 0.27% and 0.22% in the last one months. The correlation between the Hang Seng index and this in the past 15 years shows that the probability of a peak fall is higher only if the spreads are narrowed or continue to fall to negative levels. However, the current three-month US-Hong Kong interbank rates change little. 　　We believe that Hong Kong stocks are the second most likely to fall in the technological adjustment market. Judging from the fundamentals, the index may have to fall back to 2010, estimated to be about 1.4 times times the market rate, that is, about 16,000 levels to start attracting more capital inflows.