Investor: 9.6 yuan for Unicom plus points per share

Sina tip: This article belongs to the Research Report column, only for the analysis of a stock of personal views and views, and the unofficial news report, Sina does not guarantee its authenticity and objectivity, all relevant to the stock of effective information to the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange of the announcement as prevail, please investors pay attention to risk.　　Investor (researcher Zhou Jun) 138 million, China Unicom mobile Business user number, market share 20.1%; 477 million, China Mobile subscriber number, share 72.9%. Sharp contrast shows that China Unicom in the current Chinese mobile communication market pattern, to lag far behind China's mobile.　　But 5 years later, that pattern will change.　　According to our forecast, China Unicom in 5 years after the 3G user share will reach about 50%, while in the mobile user market share will be increased from the current 20% to 27%, China's mobile share from the current more than 70% to 58%, the Chinese telecom's share of about 15%.　　In view of the leading position of China Unicom in the 3G era, according to 3G, 2G, fixed telephone, broadband and other business analysis, using FCFF valuation method, we estimate that China Unicom A shares of the reasonable value of 9.6 yuan per share. In the forecast of free cash flow in the valuation model, we will use the 5 years (2009 ~2013 years) beginning in 2009 as the precise forecast period, the 5 years after 2013 years as the rough forecast period, and after 2018 as the forecast period for the sustainable growth.　　According to the FCFF valuation model, the final calculation of China Unicom's reasonable valuation reached 9.6 yuan.　　Mobile users 5 years later 950 million according to the operating data released by the three telecom operators in China, as of the end of 2008, the total number of mobile communications users in China was 641 million, according to the 1.328 billion total population in China at the end of that year, each hundred people owned mobile phone 48.3, that is, mobile communication penetration reached 48.3% Although China's mobile communications users have been growing rapidly, but compared with developed countries or regions still have a small gap, or even lower than the global average level. At the end of last year, mobile communication penetration in Hong Kong, China, reached 149%, the world's top. The second was Italy and Singapore, which reached 135% and 134% respectively.　　The European average penetration rate reached 110%, and the world was 50%.　　From the growth rate of mobile users in the United States, when the mobile communication penetration reaches 70%, the speed of growth will drop significantly, while the growth of mobile users in Japan and South Korea has a noticeable decline after penetration reaches 60%.　　We have initially judged that, generally speaking, when the mobile communication penetration rate of a country or region develops to 60%~70%, the growth will slow down. Japan's penetration rate in 2000 was close to that of China, about 48% per cent, and in 2001, after 3G, the penetration rate soared to around 55% and 2002 to about 60%. Since then, growth has dropped to about 68% by 2004, at the end of 2008, when Japan's mobile passThe letter penetration rate reached 84%. Based on the above analysis, we believe that China's mobile communication penetration rate will be increased faster. 2008, China's mobile communication penetration rate increased by nearly 7%, and in recent years accelerated the trend of ascension. By the end of this year, the three major operators 3G will be fully commercial, we believe that the beginning of 2010, China's mobile phone users will accelerate growth.　　2009, the penetration rate will be increased by nearly 5 points, 2010 increase of 7 points, since then, growth will also be slowed, taking into account the country and Japan and South Korea and other countries income level gap, is expected to 2013, China's mobile communication penetration will reach 70%. Considering the combined population growth rate of 0.6% per cent in the past 10 years, China's population totals about 1.363 billion by 2013.　　The total number of mobile phone users will reach about 950 million people. 3G users 5 years later 280 million as of the end of 2008, the global 3G user number of 450 million, the total number of mobile users as a percentage of 11.1%.　　However, in different countries or regions, the development of 3G due to the system, consumption habits and other aspects of the difference between the obvious gap. 3G users accounted for the highest proportion of mobile users in Japan, followed by South Korea, reached 85.3% and 60% respectively.　　In Europe and the United States, 3G business development is far inferior, the main countries 3G users accounted for only 15%~20%, the highest Italy is only 27%, and the U.S. also less than 20%.　　3G Business Development in Japan and South Korea and Europe and the United States such a strong contrast between the reasons are many, of which the most important factors are: consumption habits, the difference between 2G penetration, operator 3G license to obtain cost differences and terminal differences. Special 2G coverage difference, which is critical to 3G impact. When Europe began promoting 3G in 2003, the mobile penetration rate in 2G was already quite high, and Italy and other countries were already close to 100%, and the Europeans ' willingness to switch from 2G to 3G was not strong, in the unlikely case of data services.　　Japan launched the 3G 2001, its 2G penetration rate is only 53%.　　China's current situation is very similar to Japan's, mobile phone users have similar consumption habits, the 2G penetration is very close, operators 3G license is issued by the government, mobile terminals are also very rapid development, and operators began to dig into the industry chain opportunities. Japan 3G started in 2001, but the real business is 2002, after 5 years of development, that is, 2006 years, Japan's 3G penetration rate reached 52.6%.　　And South Korea officially launched 3G Commercial is in 2002, 5 years later, 3G penetration rate reached nearly 40%.　　Compared with Japan and South Korea, China's current launch of the 3G business is the advantage of first, China's current 2G penetration than Japan and South Korea when the launch of 3G lower, is conducive to the direct development of 3G users and the original 2G users of the transfer network; second, the current 3G technology is more mature; third, the current 3G terminal is richer, more advanced technology. But for China's 3G developmentCan not be too optimistic, mainly because the Japanese in the 5 years after the launch of the 3G, in fact, 2G users are not significantly reduced, that is to say, 3G users from external growth, 2G to 3G to the proportion of the net is not high.　　Europe and the United States experience is that the 2G to 3G to the proportion of the network is rather small.　　There is a more important reason is the relatively low income of China's residents, but the 3G tariff than 2G to significantly higher than a lot. Therefore, we expect that by 2013, China's 3G user penetration rate will reach about 30%, much lower than the Japanese level, also lower than South Korea.　　According to this calculation, 2013, the number of 3G users in China will reach about 280 million.　　Unicom 3G Users 5 years 140 million in the current 3G three formats, WCDMA in the technical maturity, global network coverage, terminal richness and so on have a strong advantage, therefore, we believe that the new Unicom in the user access will have a clear advantage of the first. Although China Unicom in the 2G market share far behind China Mobile, by the end of 2008 only 20.1%, but we can not ignore the advantages of the new Unicom in the 3G market.　　Moreover, the current annual transfer rate of mobile users in China is as high as 30%, China Unicom has a great opportunity to compete for the original Chinese mobile high-end users.　　In a statistical survey of the willingness of mobile phone users to switch networks, the network quality, tariff and terminal selection are the first three factors for users to choose mobile Communication Network, and the brand image is only ranked at 5th place. By contrast, WCDMA bandwidth up to 14.4M, is CDMA2000 maximum bandwidth of more than 4 times times, is TD-SCDMA 5 times times more.　　In 116 countries around the world, 275 operators choose WCDMA format, with 107 operators in 60 countries choosing CDMA2000, while TD-SCDMA is only used in China. We anticipate that the full network technology advantage and global coverage will allow China Unicom to gain a 50% share of the Chinese 3G market in 5 years. Number of users 140 million; Although China Mobile has a good brand and market share, TD-SCDMA's serious disadvantage in terms of technology maturity and global coverage will hinder the growth of its 3G users, which is expected to reach about 30% in the future 3G market; As for CDMA2000, its technology is relatively backward,　　However, currently in the international market has a 28% share, coupled with China Telecom's urgent desire to enter the mobile communications market, our future market share of CDMA2000 is expected to be around 20%. In addition, the international operator's statistics show that 3G users of the ARPU and 2G than the general 1.3~1.6 times, in Japan, for example, in 3G just started 2002 years, 2003, 3G user ARPU value and 2G basically the same, that is, the ratio of 1, but 2004-2006 years,　　The ratios were 1.3, 1.4 and 1.5, respectively. At present, the ARPU value of the 2G mobile phone users of China Mobile, Unicom and Telecom73 Yuan, 63 yuan and 41.3 yuan, according to 73%, 20% and 7% market share weighted average calculation, our country 2G user's average ARPU value is 66 yuan. According to international standards, we expect that the domestic 3G average ARPU should be 40% higher than 2G, according to this calculation 3G stable period of ARPU value of 92.4 yuan, is expected to China Mobile, unicom after the promotion period, can begin to reach this level in 2011.　　And China Telecom's aggressive strategy for the market, its lower tariff standards may lead to ARPU value lower than the other two operators. 2G business will gradually shrink at the end of the first quarter of 2009, China Unicom 2G user number is 138 million.　　For China Unicom GSM business, in the next 5 years, there are two major trends will be more clear: first, the total number of users will be reduced trend; second, 2G user ARPU value will be significantly reduced. New Unicom's user growth will be mainly from three aspects: natural growth, some of the original PHS user transfer network, the development of broadband bundled users. At present, mobile phone penetration is close to saturation in urban area, mobile operators will mainly develop rural users in the future. At the same time, urban users will be a large number of 3G to the network, the process is expected to be far faster than the number of rural users.　　Therefore, this will lead to a decrease in the total number of 2G users, not only that, the low-end trend will be more obvious, the ARPU value will quickly decline. As for the former China Unicom PHS users of the transfer network, we believe that the user's choice of the direction of the Independent, China Unicom does not exist too big preferred advantage. and the development of broadband bundled users, we are not optimistic about the operation of the business, the main reason is.　　Because of the factors of technology, people and resources, the fusion of fixed network and mobile network has great difficulty in integration. As a result, 2G users are expected to grow only in the early stages of 3G and will gradually decrease after 2010 years.　　We forecast that the new Unicom 2009-2013 years 2G users are 150 million, 160 million, 150 million, 145 million, 130 million, 2G business ARPU value is 40.2 yuan, 37.4 yuan, 33.6 yuan, 32 yuan and 31 yuan respectively. In the next few years, China Unicom's fixed-line business is expected to face a more severe downturn due to the impact of the PHS retreat network and mobile phone impact.　　and broadband services still have a lot of room for growth. In the next 5 years, China Unicom fixed-line users will be the loss of 10 million households, 11 million households, 11 million households, 3 million households and 2 million households.　　Fixed-line ARPU will continue to slide as mobile-phone penetration increases, predicting a 5% per cent decline in the next 5 years.　　2008, the company's fixed-line business income of 54.81 billion yuan, according to the estimated 2009-2013-year unicom fixed-line income of 46.86 billion yuan, 39.62 billion yuan, 33.5 billion yuan, 30.87 billion yuan, 28.74 billion yuan. However, we expect Unicom's broadband services will continue to grow at a high rate, the basis of this judgment is that China's internet PUAnd rates are far lower than in developed countries. At the end of 2008, China's internet penetration rate was only 22.6%, while the major countries in Europe and America reached more than 60%. Therefore, the next 5 years, Unicom's broadband business will continue to maintain rapid growth. 2008, Unicom's fixed-line broadband and data communications business income of 25.98 billion yuan, an increase of 23.4%. Estimated 2009-2013 years, fixed-line broadband and data communication business income is 32.48 billion yuan, 38.97 billion yuan, 46.76 billion yuan, 53.78 billion yuan, 61.85 billion yuan.