Investors in the market impulse big only reason to cause

According to the Hong Kong Ming Pao, the negative news that the economy shrank by 7.8% in the first quarter of Hong Kong yesterday, although the opening of the Hang Seng index was 400 points, but soon regained its lost ground, the afternoon was a rise, the close of 232 points, reported 17,022 points, as this column said, investors should look forward, do not see inverted mirror investment, The past things will not affect the stock price, and some are just the psychological role of some people.　　The country means to rise more, closing 9,792 points, up to 184 points, the country refers to the 9,400 points after the last break, the minimum of 9,369 points, and finally can be guaranteed, this is also consistent with this column last week, the estimated country refers to the 9,400 point should support the idea, the recent adjustment of Hong Kong stocks seems to have come to an end, and the index　　The author's confidence in the future, from a number of shares in recent days to fall to support a bit, have fallen, yesterday, the Hong Kong Exchange (0388) has seen the lowest 99.6 yuan, to the 100-yuan adjustment target of this column booking, that is, see the buying surge, the final closing of 109.7 Yuan, Rose 5.8%, all day high and low amplitude of 10%. The dollar continued to look favorable as the index rose to the top of the Falling channel last week (Figure 2), which is also a good development, and the dollar may begin a new wave of retreat to the lower channel.　　The dollar is the market sentiment of the thermometer, the funds into the dollar risk aversion, on behalf of the world is not peaceful, the dollar weakened, on behalf of the fine weather, so the dollar to find the bottom, the stock market risk will fall. In the constituent stocks of HSI, of the 10 blue chips that rose most yesterday, property stocks accounted for 4, the top of which was the New World (0017) up 6.87%, the Kowloon Warehouse (0004) + 6.24%, which showed that investors did not put the first-quarter economic figures in their hearts. The 3rd increase in the number of increases and yellow (0013) rose 5.79%, however, this column still think that the longer real (0001) than the value of Bo, buy a long reality is also a curve to buy and yellow.　　The ratio of long real shares divided by yellow fell below the average since the beginning of last year, and since last September, the ratio has been on average for most of the time, in other words, the longer real and the yellow.　　India's stock market rose 17.7% Yesterday the reason is that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is re-elected, his Congress party will be round in Congress, no longer like the past 5 years of political weakness, so that economic and social reform stalled, investment markets expect the Economist-born Mr Singh in the next 5 years will accelerate the economy to private operators and foreign capital open. Printing stocks, although Hong Kong only India ETF (2810) can buy, Hong Kong listed companies in India's investment is very small, but the printing stock of the big rise, but reflects animal spirits strong. I do not know how to translate this language, presumably means in the economy or the stock market, the impulse of consumption and investment is strong, for a little reason, everyone will Yihongershang, scrambled a joy. The phrase comes from The Economist Keynes, who described animal spirits as a sudden impulse to act in his famous book, "The General theory of employment interest and money" (sPontaneous urge), it is not the result of calculating gains and losses and weighing opportunity rates. Printing stocks up 17% a day to show the impulse Keynes from the people to find the economic fluctuation, in the Great Recession, the government to save the economy, the policy will first have to cure the people, to boost animal spirits. Today, animal spirits already exists in the global investment market, the root cause is that governments and central banks after the tsunami have adopted a set of Keynes, desperate to save the economy, to reduce interest rates to nearly 0, the government poured money to support the economic rescue banks, the government has even encouraged speculation (　　The Fed's low-interest loans to financial institutions to buy mortgage-backed securities and to buy "toxic production" from banks, in this climate, animal spirits naturally nurtured, just wait for reasons or excuses to erupt, the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's re-election, triggered this impulse. More and more events since this year have been convinced that animal spirits has been launched, the first is the mainland launched 4 trillion yuan revitalization of the economy, the mainland property market transactions increased, the stock market is a big increase in recent months, the two sides to strengthen economic cooperation, Taiwan stock has risen 43% this year. Yesterday, this newspaper columnist Pierre gave that the Japanese prime minister is likely to "change the village", in exchange for the Democratic Party in power, Japanese stocks at any time to a big roll.　　It appears that the animal spirit is constantly appearing in various investment markets in different guises. In the Asian region, the Indian stock market rose by 17.7% yesterday, the increase has reached 48% this year, surpassing the Shanghai Composite index of 46%, accounted for the increase of 2, 3, the first is still Shenzhen stock index, Rose 61%, Taiwan shares in 43% row 4th. What about Hong Kong?　　The Hang Seng index only rose 18%, as if the animal spirit a bit insufficient, this is not the case, the index is not the same as two heavy stock control (0005) and mobile (0941) Poor performance drag, since this year more than 40% of the constituent stocks also have 11, the question is whether you choose it. The Dow also bounced back to the Che 165-point Dow, which also started to rebound last night, with a 30-point rise of 165 points in Hong Kong 0 o'clock in the morning, to 8,433, leading the city to a rally in finance, energy, resources, non-essential consumer goods and industrial stocks, reflecting the market's continued expectation of economic recovery. In early Thursday, the Fed will announce the contents of its last meeting. And the Fed's latest forecasts for economic growth this year and next, if the Fed had said earlier in Congress that the economy would turn better in the second half, it should have upgraded its forecasts, which could be another opportunity for animal spirits to perform. (Jiangzongren)