IPhone6 factors behind the explosion of processing trade

Absrtact: September's national exports grew 15.3% year-on-year, the growth rate is 5.9% faster than last month, we think this growth is normal. At the October 16 Ministry of Commerce's routine press conference, Ministry of Commerce spokesman Shen Danyang was responding to the outside world for the September export increase

"National exports rose 15.3% per cent year-on-year in September, up 5.9% from last month, and we think that growth is normal." "At the Ministry of Commerce's routine press conference on October 16, Shen Danyang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, responded to doubts about the 19-month high in export growth in September.

21st century economic reporter noted that, from the type of foreign trade in the September, processing trade has become a major driving force for import and export growth. Customs data show that September import and export of processing trade 138.3 billion U.S. dollars, growth of 19.7%, faster than last month's 18.7%, pulling the national import and export growth of 6.4%.

IPhone6 factors behind the explosion of processing trade

Export innovation High in September, a noteworthy phenomenon is: the type of trade, processing trade ushered in a big rebound-September processing trade import and export growth of 19.7%, faster than last month 18.7%, a change in processing trade growth depressed state.

Specifically, the first 4 months, the processing trade has been negative, the first quarter of the decline is more obvious, processing trade import and export 1.87 trillion yuan, down 8%. In the ensuing 5-July, processing trade rose to a recovery, with negative growth in August.

Pre-processing trade growth is relatively low, even negative growth, a little higher than so much, Ministry of Commerce Research Institute of Foreign Affairs director Kimberson that the United States production of iphones, tablets are processed in China to do processing trade to the United States, which is one of the reasons, from the market point of view, mobile terminal this demand is better, other difficult to say.

From the import and export commodity trade data of the general Administration of customs, August imports of imported processing and assembly trade items of 18.2%, September reached 17.2%, and this data July is negative growth, to 1.2%.

8 September is the IPhone6 production stage.

At present, Foxconn can produce the iphone 6 Plus and the iphone 6 has reached the maximum capacity, but such shipments are still not enough to meet the pre-order. In the case of Foxconn's Zhengzhou plant, 100 lines have been working overtime to assemble the iphone 6, even though shipments are still unable to meet the sales for pre-order and release days.

Experts interviewed by the 21st century economic reporter also believed that iPhone6 would lead to an increase in exports of processing trade, which was reflected in the import and export data of September.

Wang, director of the Department of International Economics and Trade, Peking University, said: "The entire export of foreign trade is very huge, the Apple mobile phone shipments may have impact, how much impact can not be determined, but concentrated in September shipments, may be relevant." ”

This is also reflected in the iphone 6 's generation of factories in the main distribution of Foxconn, and the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, the Bohai Sea in the eastern region of the foreign trade data show a great correlation.

According to the Ministry of Commerce data, in the subregion, September, the East region import and export growth rebound significantly, the highest in 17 months. In addition, Henan, including the Central region import and export growth chain also rose 7.1%.

Zhengzhou customs recently released data show that the first three quarters of Henan import and export growth in central six provinces, the 13th, with the IPhone6 series of mobile phones released sales, September Henan Province, import and export strong growth. Only September month, Henan Export mobile phone 7.819 million, an increase of 72.5%.

"This is a temporary state, if the September change is due to a large number of iphone6 exports, wait until the tide is over and will fall." So I think a steady and relatively low speed growth is a normal state of China's entire processing trade, the plunge is the result of temporary factors. Wang thought.

Kimberson also said that this reliance on external demand-driven growth prospects is not the norm.

Export growth of HK $34%

According to customs statistics, the value of exports and imports in the first three quarters of this year grew by 3.3%, 5.1% and 1.3% per cent year-on-year, respectively. But on a monthly basis, foreign trade exports have been growing more volatile this year: for example, exports were negative in 2 March, exports were lower to 18.1% in February, then rebounded gradually to 14.5% in July, until September climbed to 15.3%.

Is there a high component behind the September export figures? Danyang that the export growth rate accelerated in September, both because of the effectiveness of policies and measures to stabilize the growth of foreign trade and the rebound in international market demand, also related to the relatively low base of the same period last year.

Shen Danyang further said that after the introduction of the General Council of 19th this year, the company's ability to receive orders increased, confidence was boosted, the national export growth rate is quarterly higher.

"A survey by the Ministry of Commerce's key contacts showed that 66% per cent of the respondents said there was a decrease in the type of export inspection, 60% said the overall cost burden was reduced, and 48% of the companies thought that the speed of clearance was accelerated, which is a very important factor. "he said.

On demand, Danyang said the world economy has continued to recover modestly since the three quarter, and international trade growth has accelerated. Import growth in the EU increased from 3.3% in the first half to 6.8% in July, while imports in Malaysia and Indonesia increased by 10.3 and 18.4% respectively in the first half of August.

Kimberson holds a similar view. He argues that the EU's recovery from the recession last year, combined with a gradual upturn in the US economy from the two quarter and sanctions against Russia by the US and EU, has increased Russia's imports from China.

In addition, "a lower year-on-year base is also an important reason for the rapid growth of exports this September." Danyang said exports last September fell 0.4% from a year earlier, the second-lowest export-growth month of the year.

It is noteworthy that there has been a rapid growth in individual commodities and individual areas of Hong Kong exports in September. According to the data, mainland China's exports to Hong Kong in 7 August, 13%, -2%,9 monthly export growth rate of 34%, is the highest since May 2013 for export growth, compared to August this year, a 36% increase.

Under the combined effect of these factors, China's exports to most markets increased rapidly in September. It may be noted that the information provided to Hong Kong is growing faster, not only for Hong Kong, but also for the EU and ASEAN markets. Danyang said that, for example, the EU growth of 14.5%, the ASEAN growth of 14%, faster than last month 2% and 1% respectively, the overall comparison is more in line with development trends and logic.