Is Weibo fading? It doesn't make any sense!

"It doesn't make sense. --When asked by a journalist, "Do you think Weibo is a goner?" , a senior person uttered the same answer.

However, the tone of Weibo's death is commonplace. Since the microblogging circle has exploded, participants at various internet industry gatherings have been holding mobile phones or pressing, or sweep, or shake, enjoy, everyone's mantra from "pay attention to me" into the "Add Me", from the "fast forwarding" into a "quick praise", all kinds of signs seem to show that the micro-Bo's decadent unstoppable.

And when reporters try to find the reason for this "decline", Shu Yu (should I ask to use a pseudonym) said that the micro-Bo as a single product, to discuss its line or not, meaningless. Shu Yu, a veteran of more than 10 years in the Internet circle, is still in the middle management of a microblogging platform.

So why doesn't it make sense?

Weibo: Decline or return?

"Weibo is a square, you can't because today the square is left with old ladies dancing, just say it's useless, on the contrary the ecology around it has got up, cafes, barbecue stalls, commissary, rent roller skates bike, its vitality is that we have it as a part of life, you may forget it, But you can't live without it. ”

Media in the middle of the year said Sina Weibo's activity had slipped by more than 30% per cent from its peak, to a level in early 2011, although Sina's second-quarter 2013 report showed that active users of Weibo had reached 54 million, compared with a 8.3% increase in early March.

Two extremes of data were questioned in varying degrees, in the first half of this year, SHARESDK data from the app-sharing service provider showed that social platforms accounted for more than TOP10, accounting for 25.51%, 84% of the return rate, followed by Sina Weibo, accounting for 23.29 %, the return rate of 117%, micro-trust Friends Circle ranked third, accounting for 19.47% of the share, the return rate of 186%, of which users share content to Sina Weibo is almost equal to the number of Tencent Micro-Bo + QQ space share the sum.

This set of data shows that, regardless of user activity, microblogging is still the mainstream platform for information flow.

"Micro Bo It should do this thing, public knowledge, hand, a lot of social events will only through Micro Bo fire up, this is the value of Micro Bo, is the root of Weibo, praise, comment, forwarding these are leaves." "Xu Chang said.

and Shu Yu completely denied the reporter's previous view, "should not be independent of the eyes to see the rise and fall of Weibo, people will not because it is micro-Bo and decided to or not, but to see it is not a part of life." ”

Shu Yu that Weibo is a bottom, like the road, above running bicycles, skateboards or BMW cars, do not care, it is important that they can only run on the road to reach the destination.

Two people's views coincide--the core of Weibo is a carrier of information, together with other products and platforms that use Weibo accounts, support sharing to micro blogs, or sync to Weibo, it constitutes an ecology, and Weibo is the bottom of the ecosystem, and it needs to be done well.

Micro-letter: Pick up micro bo or purify micro Bo?

"We are always information overload, relationship chain overload of the crowd, but two or three lines, three or four line users, their relationship chain of 50 to 80 people great, if I only 50 80 friends, there are many people do not know how to open a circle of friends, I can play in it?

Micro-trust friends to do two things: 1, so that users have sent to the micro-blog content sent to the circle of friends, 2, so that many people who originally do not need to use micro-blog to share content in the circle of friends. The conclusion is that the circle of friends has robbed Weibo users and absorbed more new users.

Why not QQ+QQ space but micro-letter + friend circle Rob the user? Chen that QQ and micro-letter circle is no difference, but QQ now become a business communication tool, micro-letter into an acquaintance of the day-to-day communication tools, mobile phone QQ original positioning is difficult to change, Finally, the communication between friends on the QQ is slowly becoming smaller, when the micro-ring took away the user 60% or even 70% of the time, chat, sharing, comments, interaction are concentrated in the micro-letter is very natural things.

Shu Yu said that the first feeling that users had just been exposed to Weibo was not fun, because no one, so constantly add people, know not know all add, what content is issued, the last content overflow, meaningless things overflow, meaningful things will become more expensive, users will take the initiative to find, active to valuable individuals, accounts, Group closer, this is a kind of self purification, micro-letter appeared, the user to eat, drink and drink to show off the micro-letter, accelerated the micro-bo purification process.

For micro-letters, the chain of relationships is both an advantage and a short board, Shu Yu said:

1, when my relationship chain is not enough when my world is a closed world, today micro-letter has a large proportion of users are not open friends circle, if I have only 50 80 friends, there are many people do not open a circle of friends, I can see what?

2, the circle of friends what to eat every day what to play or self-portrait, I want to see the fun things where to see, only micro-blog.

3, now more and more soul chicken soup, misleading and boring things are also flooded into the circle of friends, I need to escape this fence to see more fresh things, only Weibo.

Sina's opportunities and mistakes

With the gradual withdrawal of other players, the current microblogging of the big players only two: Tencent and Sina, for Tencent, Weibo is not an impact on the overall strategy of the product, but a basic platform for the ecology, and for Sina, micro-blog almost equal to the future.

In a big way, Weibo itself is out of the social system, but from a single product perspective, Weibo's social needs are being quickly dispelled by Twitter, seeing Tencent start a fire in its backyard and sit on the microblog.

From micro-friends, microns, close friends to "friend Circle", from the topic of social networking, private social to group social networking, Sina Weibo has been in the social direction of repeated defeats, and looked back, will find that Sina Weibo has been chasing the micro-letter walk, but the two in the product gap is growing.

If Sina was able to do a lot of things like micro-letters before Chen, for example, two-dimensional code, Friends circle, in fact, the opportunity is very large, second, Weibo has the opportunity to do social, if its letters function to do strong enough, had the opportunity to do the micro-letter, but its letters function more and more difficult to use.

Everyone is saying that Sina Weibo has no product genes, and media attributes are too heavy, and several of the departing employees of Sina Weibo have talked about another two reasons.

1, the media stack thought, Sina Weibo is a big cake, Sina each department wants to divide a piece, unceasingly does the addition, adds the plate to add the function, finally becomes more and more complex more and more heavy;

2, team loss and change, especially the middle-level transformation quickly, everyone has their own ideas, the product will follow the change, the last Sibuxiang;

3, mechanism problems, the ability to do products and thinking is different.

The illusion of the IT people

"There is one problem with people in our circle, that is, I don't need it, I don't think anyone is, it's an illusion." ”

The first-tier city's IT Crowd is sensitive, avantgarde, chasing the trend, they are the earliest users of Weibo, but also the first to abandon the microblogging users, they seem to represent a trend, however, Shu Yu said, in fact, we are the most meaningless people.

"We are all Fu Gao, first, always have the most knowledge of fresh things, even if you do not read the burn you know what it is, you go to see two or three line three or four users, those small business owners, they care about?" Shu Yu says, "Second, we never pay, we're going to die, but the real two or three-line three or four-line user is not." ”

As Shu Yu said, the Internet people are the most avantgarde of the taste of the crowd, in different platforms between the beat, today has a micro-blog to go to Weibo, tomorrow with a pop to pop, the day after the micro-letter and ran to the micro-letter, forever in the "flee", at the same time this group is a highly homogeneous coterie, when chatting with each other Weibo, Micro-letters will have the same feeling, when more and more empathy, this feeling will be considered a reality, but in fact, this is only a small circle of view.

"It's a sad thing if the product just gathers up the group," he said. "Shu Yu said.

Microblogging and micro-credit opportunities

"You think a lot of product users don't play anymore, it's not because it's not exciting enough, not fresh, not because it doesn't work, but because our needs are becoming more personal, and these big platforms can't solve these personality needs, so the need for these personalities on social networks starts to escape. ”

Shu Yu that these escape needs are opportunities, such as the Mo, sing, pop or after reading that burn, and Sina and Tencent are also seizing the opportunity to escape, so recently in the short video products.

Xu Chang use a black hole to describe the micro-letter, when it absorbs all the reciprocal demand, the unequal demand is still, the opportunity is far away from this black hole. "Why we didn't do the pure picture, because this part has been done by the micro-letter, in the black hole." Xu Chang says, "Socializing now is about looking for a vertical opportunity in a peer-to-peer network." ”

"The relationship between people and people is the most important value of a community, if your relationship is not strong enough is very dangerous." "Sing," Chen says. By singing the circle of users into an ecosystem, the relationships between stars and fans, fans, fans, and families in this ecosystem form a lot of interaction, eventually forming a social network that is not the same as the mainstream social network.

Reporter's Notes:

Although some users have begun to fade Weibo, like the taste of the users from Micro Bo jump to micro-mail, or other platforms, but as Shu Yu said, a large number of apps, sites are logged on with a microblog account, users from a variety of products to share, send content to micro-blog, when such an ecological has been formed, The change in microblogging's own activity has become less important because it has incorporated users into its biosphere.

Micro-blogs and micro-letters have formed two ecological Weibo's open ecology is dispersed to a variety of long tail applications, while micro-letters keep users firmly in their expanding biosphere, which is a two-dimensional competition, and there are still entrepreneurial opportunities in niche areas beyond the two big platforms.

At the beginning of the interview, reporters tried to find out why Weibo declined, finally found that this is a pseudo proposition, the above mentioned it People's illusion is also applicable to many other products, in our comments and analysis of a product, a company or a big guy should reflect on, perhaps really should reflect on the idea of the "bureau".