It's time for the domestic handset to dominate the world?

Turn over the history of domestic mobile phones, ten years ago, is the first domestic mobile phone rise, when Kejian, Amoi, Hisense and other domestic brands besieged the heyday of Nokia; now, Huawei, Millet, the Charm clan and other finished successors again set off the domestic mobile phone wave, this time they aim at Samsung.

The latest figures show that in the third quarter of last year in the world's 5 big wisdom expert machine manufacturers, Chinese manufacturers occupy three seats, respectively, Huawei, Millet and Lenovo, the total market share reached 15.5%, the year-on-year growth of 4.1%. The top two Apple and Samsung's total market share was 37.1%, but it slipped 7.1% and the city accounted for the first Samsung decline. Lenovo Group chairman Yang said that domestic handset manufacturers want to further development must go abroad.

As a result, a global handset overlord of the power of the battle between the domestic mobile phone and Samsung, Lenovo acquired the IBM PC business after spending a full 10 years to board the world's first PC sales, then, for the "domestic mobile phone team," how long they have to wait? The two industry experts interviewed by the IT times gave a diametrically opposed view.

35 to win the "sunset" in the mobile phone market

Interviewee: Yi (Secretary-General of China Mobile Internet Industry Alliance)

"Fast, very fast, short three years, the slowest five or six years." Domestic mobile phones will usher in a dominant position. ”

"Not Huawei, not millet."

Will the future global mobile phone hegemony come from China? For this answer, Yi is certain. However, such a company will not be the current fire of millet, and will not be superior Huawei, "the future must be Lenovo such a comprehensive company, in order to occupy an important position in the global market." ”

Yi that to dominate the global mobile phone market, there must be three conditions. "First, its own products to maintain competitiveness, and second, to better maintain brand awareness; Third, must be through the acquisition of the way to become the first." ”

Yi is not optimistic about the Internet handset manufacturers such as Millet, he believes that millet through superb marketing means to quickly obtain ultra-high cell phone sales, "but if Qualcomm's patent reverse licensing mode, such as the industry generally expected to take the reform and Development Commission, the future holding a patent on the Internet mobile phone sharpening enterprises will emerge. ”

Patent fees alone, the cost of a mobile phone may be increased by more than 100 yuan, the price advantage of these Internet handsets will no longer exist. "This is the reason why Millet is now casting a net with little product lines associated with mobile phones because there is a lot of risk in mobile phones," he said. ”

Similarly, Huawei, the domestic communications giant, is unlikely to be the first company to sell handsets. "Huawei's development resembles Apple, making its own processor, its own operating system, its own baseband (chip)." Huawei, the technology maker, is unlikely to buy other companies, so it is hard to make market share faster and bigger. ”

"Wearable devices will replace mobile phones"

"The desktop has been replaced by laptops for a few years, but laptops have grown in popularity for a few years, but now the tablet market is starting to saturate and slide." This shows that the current hot products, is likely to be eliminated in 35 years, the mobile phone is no exception. ”

Yi that, when the future of speech recognition, gesture recognition, data transmission 5G era, people can even talk to the air. This is not a fictional fact, but a reality that is happening. "I think in a few years, the world's trend will be from hand-held mobile terminals to wearable terminals, and when most of us have smart glasses or watches, the value of smartphones will be reduced." ”

The biggest rival for mobile phones is wearable equipment. "You see everyone in transition, can be regarded as Apple, Google, if the transformation is not successful, the future will not have their living space." ”

"Probably the last boom of the cell phone."

For the domestic mobile phone's thriving, Yi Cold water, mobile phone gold development cycle of 3-5 years, with technology progress, mobile phones are likely will no longer exist, in other words, the mobile phone will be redefined.

Yi says the future of cell phones will probably be grafted on watches and even on glasses.

Talk beyond, difficult

Interviewee: Yanhui (Secretary-General of the China Federation of Mobile phones)

"Beyond Apple is possible, but domestic mobile phones want to surpass Samsung, I am afraid it will be difficult to achieve in the short term." ”

Skinny Camel Bimat

Motorola was the industry's first in the analog communications era, and Nokia was strong when it shifted to the digital age, and Samsung was gradually occupying the highlands during the development of the feature machine to smartphone. The handset makers were able to become the industry's hegemon at a certain time, Yanhui, simply because they were strong in a particular area.

In the era of the functional machine, although Nokia has the highest global market share, but the number two Samsung mobile phones have been distributed all over the world, which is in the later period of transformation of Samsung's "corner overtaking" laid a foundation. Plus the panel advantage of "further push", the smartphone market fully mature, directly to the supremacy of Samsung.

Today, Samsung's global market share fell from 33% to 26% in the first three quarters of 2014 years, but Samsung's supply chain advantage has not diminished, it is not only the world's largest memory supplier, and maintains the leading position of AMOLED LCD panel, Samsung's third square wafer foundry is also the top, Can be a par for TSMC.

"Samsung's market share has been reduced simply because of the standardization of mobile phone production." Samsung's brand premium has been high, and Samsung's market has not been as high as its brand premium, with the low price of domestic handsets. If Samsung does not cut prices, market share must be reduced. ”

Gap Rome

According to last year's domestic third quarter mobile market data showed that Samsung in the domestic market share of 15.4%, millet closely followed by 13.5%. But in the global market share proportion, Samsung is 23.8%, Apple 8%, millet, Lenovo is 5.3% and 5.2% in turn.

"Domestic mobile phones can be ranked in the global title, is entirely dependent on the domestic market." In the international market, Huawei in Europe and America more, ZTE in the United States, TCL in some markets in South America, but these brands are difficult to have a global mobile phone sales channels, it is difficult to do the world first. ”

"The current global market share of domestic brands is still very low, far from Samsung." Only when the next industry upgrade, domestic mobile phones will have the opportunity to overtake. ”

Yanhui that the mobile phone industry is full of patent competition, now, after Qualcomm antitrust to find out, the days of domestic handset manufacturers will be very difficult. "Especially in the face of the world's second largest market in the United States, the lack of the necessary patents of domestic manufacturers simply ' eat ', also means unable to overtake Samsung." ”

First to overtake the old HTC.

"Want to surpass Samsung, homebred handset first must do three point: First, the market covers the world; second, solve the patent problem; third, first to do the world second. "From the current point of view, none of the domestic mobile phone brands have any of these conditions."

Samsung's rise depends on its strong supply chain, Apple relies on its own mobile operating system, domestic mobile phone brand Master of the core technology, although progress, but the gap is still obvious. Although Huawei has its own research and development of the SI chip, but the gap between the supply chain and Samsung, millet sales Although a great catch up, but profit margins far lower than Samsung. ”

In addition, the lack of high-end models, but also domestic mobile phones are currently unable to contend with Samsung another big reason. Yanhui said: "Domestic mobile phone brands in high-end models did not even meet the previous years HTC once high, it is difficult to imagine a high-end star model of the manufacturers will become a successful international brand, not to mention the challenge of Samsung mobile phone supremacy." ”

"Domestic mobile phone short board, can not make up for a short period of time." Talk beyond, difficult. ”