January economic data published in Thursday CPI or Rose 1.8%

South Daily News (Beijing Reporter/Lu Tianling) tomorrow (this Thursday), the National Bureau of Statistics will publish the January macroeconomic data.　　Official sources from the National Bureau of Statistics said that, due to the reporting system, February did not hold a press conference, only the issue of industrial prices, consumer price data.　　In addition to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the data to be released by the central bank and the NBS in Thursday are also important in judging policy trends.　　January CPI or 1.8% according to industry expectations, the January CPI year-on-year data will be slower than last December (CPI 1.9% last year), possibly around 1.8%.　　Industry insiders expect inflationary pressures to start appearing in February, so the central bank should be prepared to raise interest rates at any time.　　CICC's latest report argues that CPI inflation in January tended to be at the lower end of its 1.6%-2.0% forecast range, with PPI growth of 4.5% per cent and January new lending at around 1.5 trillion yuan, M2 growth down to 25.8%. Wanguo's chief macro analyst, Li Huiyong, predicted that January CPI inflation would remain at around 1.9%. Because Non-food prices are relatively stable, the fluctuation of CPI mainly depends on the fluctuation of food price.　　Food prices continued to rise in January, but their gains slowed, according to the Ministry of Commerce's research. In the PMI index, the rise in the purchase price index means that the January PPI will be a point of concern in many data. Many institutions expect a big rally in January PPI.　　Citic Securities is expected to rise 4.4% per cent year-on-year in January, with Qilu securities expected to rise 4.2%. "According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce, the major industrial products have seen a strong rally since late December," said the senior economist Lu Commissar of Societe Generale in an interview. "The central bank may raise interest rates after the date of the credit data, the market believes that if the disclosure of the new January credit is higher, then, because the central bank and the CBRC made clear that the full year to achieve balanced lending, the size of the new credit is bound to be limited."　　If new credit is released, the market expectations of new credit will be reduced. Industry insiders expect inflationary pressures to begin to emerge from February.　　Whether it is a comprehensive macroeconomic recovery or a faster growth in money supply in the 2009, it lays an important foundation for the coming inflationary pressures. Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People's Bank of China, said yesterday that interest rates are stable but should be closely watched. He pointed out that inflation had already appeared but remained low.　　China must remain vigilant about the current situation.　　Experts believe that commodity prices will continue to remain high, agricultural acquisition prices will continue to increase, the country's stimulus spending policies and residents of the expectations of price increases, but also the expansion of aggregate demand speed. As a result, many people speculate that the February increase in reserve requirement ratio is imperative, the rate hike may come any time, according to forecasts, the central bank in the first half will be two times plusAction. However, China's Social Security fund chief Dai said that the rate hike in the first half of this year is unlikely, as the foundation of China's economic recovery remains precarious. He said monetary credit would remain relatively loose this year, despite adjustments to the central bank's monetary policy in response to inflation and asset bubbles.