Jiu Yang stock soybean milk machine market share slowdown

The soybean milk machine enters the high season, the competitor did not shake the nine Yang shares (002242, closing price 16.53 yuan) The Nutrition King Series product's market position, thus also caused the market share of the nine yang to decline the speed to reduce obviously. In the latest Taobao list of soybean milk machine sales rankings, nine Yang week sales of more than 10,000 units.　　Sales of the top 11, the United States only a ranked 9th, the rest of the nine-yang products. Upgrading and accelerating we believe that the company's competitive advantage in product competitiveness, will slow down its market share of the rate of decline, thereby helping to boost sales system and dealer channel confidence, but also conducive to other categories of small household electrical appliances continue to expand, is expected to 2010~　　2012 Industry sales growth rate of 44.3%, 25.5%, 19.2% respectively.　　Although the company has introduced a new category of rice cookers, and has completed about 200 million yuan in the channel shop, but after all, the next 2-3 years will still account for the company's revenue of 70%, so the soybean milk machine industry growth and company share changes, the company's performance growth is the most critical. 2009 Soybean Milk Machine industry sales of more than 20 million units, it is estimated that the urban family ownership rate of 22 units/hundred households, but also very low; We believe that the participants in the United States, Supor to join in spite of increased competition, but also together accelerate the popularity of soybean milk machine speed, with the soy milk machine in the rapid popularization of the family, assuming 2010~ 2013 Urban Household soybean Milk machine hundred households have 30, 40, 50, 55 units/hundred households respectively. The use of soybean milk machine in 2-5 years, after several years of high-speed popularization, product replacement began to increase significantly, plus this year manufacturers generally large efforts to promote the replacement of stainless steel cup body products, promote the speed of replacement. According to the renewal cycle and the number of households owned, 2010-2013 years of annual sales of the industry is 3030, 3803, 4534, 43.91 million units, the growth rate of 44.3%, 25.5%, 19.2%, 3.2%, that is, soybean milk machine town market growth to the end of 2012,　　This does not take into account possible growth in rural and overseas markets. Company to watch more beautiful in the soy milk machine has been and the nine-yang differential competition, the United States, the positioning of the network-free soya-bean milk machine, it is difficult to follow the nine Yang Nutrition Wang series of new products, because one of the highlights of the nutrition King is a new network (precision Grinder) The U.S. soybean milk machine this year's main stainless steel products, but this is only in the material upgrade, in the use of performance can not be like the nine Yang Nutrition King as a major innovation, so on the one hand for the market share of the nine Yang threat less, on the other hand, the United States more can only rely on　　Can not be a strong impact on the high-end products of the nine-yang. The company's revenue is estimated to be 57.1, 69.8 and 8.21 billion yuan respectively, with a growth rate of 23.2%, 22.3% and 17.6%;eps, respectively, 0.861, 1.097 and 1.291. From the perspective of the capital market, the company has a few to see, nine-yang performance of quarterly growth trend will be maintained until 2011, the next year a quarterly increase of more than 50% of the possibility of a significant. At the same time, the company's cash adequacy, has been looking for the right bid, such as practical action will be the price catalyst. In addition, the nine Yang only domestic sales, no concern about the appreciation of the renminbi, in line with the theme of consumption upgrade, soybean milk machine gross profit margin high, nine Yang new pricing ability, by the impact of raw material prices small. To give the company 20 times times Dynamic PE valuation level is reasonable, that is, 22 yuan, from the current stock price there is a larger increase in space.