July consensus forecast: Gross national exports rose 33.29%

August 6, "Securities Market Weekly" by the Sina Finance exclusive network issued by "Crystal ball China's macroeconomic July consensus" shows that the July annual GDP growth rate of 33.29%, median value of 32.9%, the growth rate compared to June 43.9% has a significant decline.　　The highest value for the survey was 44%, with a minimum value of 20%. Li Huiyong, Chief macro analyst at the Wanguo Securities Institute, said in a telephone interview that export growth is expected to decline significantly in July than in June. One reason is that the cancellation of export rebates has led to the disappearance of the momentum of the June blitz exports in July.　　June 22, the state Ministry of Finance and the general Administration of Taxation issued a joint "on the cancellation of some goods export tax rebate Notice", starting from July 15, the cancellation of 406 kinds of goods export tax rebate. In addition, Li Huiyong said, the weakening of external market demand is another reason for the sharp decline in export growth in July. The export order index in China's manufacturing PMI has fallen for two consecutive months.　　We are maintaining a quarterly decline in export growth rates of 28% and 18% per cent for the three or four quarter.　　Zhou Donghai, senior macro analyst of China Securities, said in a telephone interview: "We judge the 5 June export data, there are export rebates due to the cancellation of export-related factors, so the disappearance of this factor in July will make year-on-year data has a larger decline."　　In addition, Zhou Donghai said U.S. retail and food service sales were one months ahead of China's exports and continued to slide in June, which also supported the judgment of a larger decline in exports in July. The 50 agencies involved in this survey include CICC, Bank of China (601988.SH,03988.HK), Bank of Communications (601328.SH,03328.HK), Guotai Securities, Everbright Securities (601788.SH), Haitong Securities (600837.SH), China Merchants Securities (600999.SH), Bank of America Merrill Lynch, France Paris Securities, Standard Chartered Bank and HSBC and so on.